Monday 13 April 2009

Sucker’s rally now coming to an end (Blog)

Whatever the technical reason for the 25 per cent rise in the S&P over the past five weeks, or a more modest eight per cent bounce in GCC regional stock prices, the absurdness of this sucker’s rally ought to be obvious to all.

Unemployment is still rising, house prices are still falling, and the fundamentals of bank balance sheets are still deteriorating with total bad debts unknown except that we know they must be getting worse.

Global trade fell off a cliff in the first quarter of the year. Even Mercedes car sales to the oil-rich of the GCC fell 23 per cent. The collapse of the world’s second largest economy, Japan has been unprecedented.

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