Tuesday 15 December 2009

Dubai Story Reeks of Insider Trading

Three weeks ago, as we were eating turkey, Dubai blew itself up. Quite deliberately. It caused quite a hiccup. Now the problem seems to have been solved thanks to some bailout money from the ‘family’ in Abu Dhabi.

This sounds like the plot of a movie. It’s got all the pieces for a ‘hit’. Intrigue, big money, great location shots (London/Dubai/the desert), the characters are investment bankers, local politicians, Clifford Chance lawyers and Iranian investors. The Iran connection brings in the CIA and therefore the opportunity for high-tech surveillance and gunplay. The necessary sex/romance angles are there.

But this is not the movies. This is the crazy real world. A month ago Nakheel bonds were trading at 110%. They fell below 40 cents two weeks ago. This morning the bonds were trading north of 70. Some of the bonds look to be paid at par.

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