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Friday, 3 September 2010

Medvedev Visit to Baku Produces Gas Export Agreement | EurasiaNet.org

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s September 2-3 visit to Azerbaijan yielded a big energy deal, as the Russian state-controlled conglomerate Gazprom secured an agreement to dramatically increase its purchases of Azerbaijani natural gas.

The pact between Gazprom and the Azerbaijani state entity SOCAR will double the amount of Russian gas purchases, from 1 billion cubic meters this year to 2 billion cubic meters in 2011. The deal also provides for an even greater level of imports in 2012 and beyond, with no set limit on Azerbaijani sales.

Such an arrangement raises questions about the future of some long-planned energy projects, namely the Nabucco pipeline. Azerbaijan is seen as a primary supplier of the Nabucco route. But this latest Russian deal stands to foster uncertainty over Azerbaijan’s desire to supply a sufficient volume of gas to make Nabucco financially tenable. Moscow has long opposed Nabucco, the completion of which would create a Caspian Basin export route that avoids Russian territory. [For background see the EurasiaNet's archive]."

GCC Market Analytics: Weekly GCC Trend Analysis


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Notes:
1. In the "Current Trend Conditions" section the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend values are determined by dual moving averages. The trend value is "Up" when the the shorter length moving average is greater the longer length moving average. The trend value is "Down" when the the shorter length moving average is less then the longer length moving average. For more information on dual moving averages see previous post here.
2. Dual moving average parameters are specific to each index and time-frame (short, medium and long).
3. The "Outlook" value can be "Very Bullish," "Bullish," "Neutral," "Bearish" or "Very Bearish." The value is determined by the historical performance of the index when the same short, medium and long-term trend conditions were in evidence in the past.
4. The top chart shows a plot of the historical price performance of the index. Highlighted on the chart are the past periods when the current trend conditions were in evidence in the past
5. The bottom chart shows the non-compounded percentage returns of the index when the current trend condition were in evidence in the past.

Sukuk Trails Emerging Debt for Fourth Month as Trade Ebbs: Islamic Finance - Bloomberg

Islamic bonds lost to emerging- market debt for the fourth month in August and fund managers say returns won’t catch up until trading increases and Persian Gulf companies restructure their debt.

Shariah-compliant notes rose 1.4 percent last month, down from 2.6 percent in July, according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index. They have underperformed emerging-market bonds for the longest stretch since July 2009. Debt in developing nations climbed 2.4 percent, adding to the 4.1 percent return in the prior month, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Diversified Index showed.

Sukuk won’t close the gap until investors gain confidence in the global economy and creditworthiness in the Gulf improves, according to Nomura Islamic Asset Management and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc. New sales after the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan ends in mid-September will help boost trading, said CIMB-Principal Islamic Asset Management Bhd. and Exotix Ltd.