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Saturday, 18 September 2010

GCC Market Analytics: Weekly GCC Trend Analysis (Week 39)

In a shortened holiday trading week for the GCC markets the only changes to last week's trend outlook is the move from Neutral to Very Bullish for both the ADX Index and the Muscat 30 Index. The outlook for all other indices remains the same.


Saudi Shares Little Changed as Saudi Fransi, SABB Decline, Al Rajhi Climbs - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabian shares were little changed on the first day of the week as investors came back from holidays and geared up for third-quarter earnings.

Banque Saudi Fransi and Saudi British Bank, known as SABB, led losses while Al Rajhi Bank, the kingdom’s biggest publicly traded lender by market value, gained. The Tadawul All Share Index declined 0.3 percent at 1:12 p.m. in Riyadh to 6337.54.

“The drop in oil yesterday is causing the market to stay relatively flat today,” said Anas Kassem, an investment analyst at Ajeej Capital in Riyadh. “Investors continue to come back from their Eid holidays and start positioning themselves for third quarter numbers.” The Muslim holiday of Eid-al-Fitr ended Sept. 13.

GCC Market Analytics: More Price Projections Using Pattern Matching

In the last post I described a method of formulating price projections based on a pattern matching approach applied to the DFM General Index. Below are the price projections for the other GCC indices.

As a reminder, the pattern matching approach can be summarised as follows (for a more detailed explanation see the previous post here):
  1. Compare the current 25 day index price movement against all previous 25 day price movements
  2. Select the three matches that correlate most closely with the current 25 day price movement
  3. Note the subsequent 20 day price movements for each of the three best matches
  4. Project the current price 20 days into the future based on subsequent price movements of the three best matches
In the charts below the light blue line is the current 25 day index price movement. The red, green and orange lines are price projections based on three best historical matches. The red, green and orange markers in the smaller inset chart highlight the three best historical match periods on the respective index.


Libyan Fund Is Said to Boost UniCredit Stake, Claims Acting Independently - Bloomberg

UniCredit SpA investor Libyan Investment Authority boosted its stake in Italy’s biggest bank since July and told the country’s stock market regulator that it’s a separate entity from the Central Bank of Libya, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

The Libyan sovereign wealth fund informed Italy’s Consob in a letter that it purchased an additional 0.5 percent stake in the Milan-based lender, raising its holding to 2.6 percent, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the letter is confidential.

The Libyan Investment Authority, responding to requests from Italian regulators to clarify its position, also said it’s acting independently from the Central Bank of Libya, the people said. The central bank owns almost 5 percent of UniCredit, making it one of the top three investors in the bank.

Arab Companies Pledge $800 Million in Russian Infrastructure Investments - Bloomberg

Russian Technologies Corp., a state holding of more than 500 companies, said U.A.E. investors agreed to spend $800 million on new projects amid a government drive to boost commercial ties with Arab countries.

Gulftainer Company Ltd., a port operator in Sharjah, and Dubai-based Damac Group will sign investment accords with Russian Technologies’ financial arm Prominvest today at Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s investment forum in Sochi, said Valery Kartavtsev, a Russian Technologies spokesman.

Gulftainer will invest $500 million in infrastructure including ports and logistics centers and Damac will invest $300 million in real estate projects, including facilities in Sochi for the 2014 Winter Olympics, Kartavtsev said.