Sunday 4 September 2011

Beyond Political Reform, Egypt Will Need Economic Restructuring: Vali Nasr - Bloomberg

Six months after the fall of the Mubarak regime, Egypt remains in disarray. Protesters continue to take to the streets demanding change, while dozens of secular and Islamist parties jockey for power with the all-powerful military in anticipation of elections in November.

Whether Egypt will then get a stable government and develop into a genuine democracy will depend not only on how it manages its raucous politics but also on whether it can fix its sclerotic economy, and soon.

Political upheaval has plunged Egypt’s economy into crisis. Since January, unemployment has climbed to 12 percent, and investment has shrunk by 26 percent. In a country in which tourism accounts for 11 percent of GDP, international arrivals have fallen a precipitous 46 percent. Given that 40 percent of the population lives on less than $2 a day, the impact of such jolts has been profound.

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