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Friday, 7 January 2011

PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM » » THE MOST AND LEAST RISKY SOVEREIGNS


This is pretty useful info if you’re putting together global portfolios. Not all countries bear the same risks in this indebted global economy (via Alea):
“This quarter there were few surprises in the list of the top ten most risky sovereigns, with Greece at the top of the table, followed by Venezuela, Ireland and Portugal, and there were no changes to the top eight least risky, although The Netherlands dropped out of the top ten.
However, the top five worst performers for the quarter are from Western Europe, confirmation that 2010 was one of the most difficult years for the region since the introduction of the euro in 1999. The report found that UK CDS widened 13% in the quarter following the bail out of Ireland.”
The most risky
The least risky
Source: CMA



Qatar Exchange, New York Exchange - Successful Partnership

Qatar_Exchange
Within efforts to give prominence to the successful partnership struck between New York Stock Exchange and Qatar Exchange (QE) , Qatari officials visited last Monday the NYSE to Highlight Successful Partnership between NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Qatar Exchange (QE) In honor of the occasion, His Excellency Ambassador Ali Bin Fahad Al Hajri, Qatari Ambassador to the U.S., rang the Closing BellSM, joined by Qatari officials.

It is worth to mention that this is usual act of the NY Stock Market to invite respectable figures to attend the daily opening and closing ceremonies. Qatar's Permanent Delegate to the UN HE Nasser Bin Abdulaziz Al Nasr, the counsellor at the Qatari Permanent delegation to the UN Tareq Ali Faraj Al Ansari , the Deputy Executive Chief of Qatar Exchange Saif Khalifa Al Mansouri along with other senior employees from New York Stock Exchange and QE attended the Closing BellSM closing ceremony .

Qatar Holding, the investment arm of Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), had signed in June , 2009 a partnership agreement with New York Stock Exchange Euronext according to which New York Stock Exchange acquired 20 % of the Doha securities market for US Dlrs. 200 Mn. Accordingly the Doha securities market was renamed Qatar Exchange after concluding the partnership agreement.

French retailer Auchan closes Dubai hypermarket - ArabianBusiness.com

The poor economic climate has forced French retailer Auchan and local partner RetailCorp to close the Auchan hypermarket in the shopping mall of DragonMart in Dubai, Auchan said on Thursday.

The decision will, however, have no impact on Auchan's accounts, the company said in a statement.

Auchan signed in 2008 an agreement with Nakheel, a Dubai World company, to create a joint-venture called Hypercorp LLC to operate across the Gulf.

11 for 2011: Can India outpace China? | beyondbrics – FT.com

India is catching up with China. Over the next two years, as long as we are spared another global financial crisis, India should start matching China’s economic growth of around 9 per cent. Then, by 2013-15, we think India will start outpacing China’s GDP growth notably.

We expect Chinese growth to slow marginally to a more sustainable rate of 8 per cent by 2013-15, following the remarkable 10 per cent average over the past 30 years. Meanwhile India’s growth will accelerate to a sustainable 9-10 per cent, after an average of 7.3 per cent over the past 10 years. What’s more, we expect India’s per capita income to reach China’s 2009 levels of $3,750 over the next 10-11 years. But what exactly will drive India’s growth rates higher?

It will be three things that we call the DRG factors: demographics, reforms and globalization.

Dubai: beware of market gossip | beyondbrics – FT.com

Investors have long bemoaned the culture of insider trading in the Gulf. The region’s markets, especially the decade-old Dubai and Abu Dhabi bourses, have often seen sharp movements in stock prices ahead of important corporate announcements as insiders buy the rumour before selling the fact.

Enforcement against insider trading has been limited. So a decision by the UAE market regulator to ban a prominent businessman for breaking regulations governing the trading of shares in his own company would, on the face of it, appear to be a step in the right direction.

Riad Kamal, the Palestinian chairman of construction company Arabtec, has been banned from trading for six months over a series of three transactions which took place in 2009 when he sold stock in the company he founded 35 years ago during the new-born UAE’s first oil-fuelled construction boom.

Yield Spreads at Two-Year Low to Revive Sales: Islamic Finance - BusinessWeek

The lowest relative yields on Islamic bonds in more than two years may encourage issuers to tap the market after a 15 percent drop in new sales in 2010, helping revive interest among investors.

The difference between average yields for emerging-market sukuk and the London interbank offered rate narrowed to 282.7 basis points yesterday, the least since August 2008, according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index. Albaraka Banking Group BSC, Bahrain’s biggest publicly traded Islamic lender, plans to sell Islamic bonds in the first quarter, while Albaraka Turk Katilim Bankasi AS, a Turkish Islamic bank, may make an offering this year, company officials said this week.

Spreads shrank in 2010 as debt restructuring in the Persian Gulf and government plans to spur investment by building roads, railways and bridges helped restore appetite for assets in the $1 trillion Islamic finance industry. Sukuk yields will rise this year along with interest rates globally, according to Kuala Lumpur-based CIMB-Principal Islamic Asset Management Bhd.

UPDATE 2: Is the Saudi Stock Market Winding Up for a Big Move? — Saudi Stock Market Analysis — GCC Market Analytics

In previous posts (here and here) I've been looking at the price action of the Saudi Tadawul Index.

This is just a quick update to note that since the breakout the Index has continued to steadily rise value.


Saudi Stock Market Index

The Saudi Index remains in its strongest trend conditions with the short, medium and long-term trends all continuing to point upwards.

Saudi Stock Market Trends

One potential dark cloud is market breadth. Although breadth remains positive the number of stocks participating in the market rise has fallen. This is something worth keeping an eye on. If breadth continues to deteriorate then it may signal a pause in the current market advance.


Saudi Stock Market Breadth


gulfnews : Noor Islamic Bank looks to break even

Noor Islamic Bank, a part of the Dubai Holding, yesterday said it expects to break even in 2012.

The banking group has also put on hold all its physical overseas expansion plans temporarily.

"We expect to break even in 2012. That has been our original target and I think we can meet it," Hussain Al Qamzi, Group Chief Executive Officer of Noor Investment Group and Noor Islamic Bank, told reporters yesterday.

gulfnews : Gulf stocks need liquidity tonic

Liquidity and confidence continue to be in short supply on most of the Gulf's seven major stock markets as governments and companies implement measures designed to overcome the effects of the global economic crisis.

This may, in fact, provide investors with a good entry-point into some markets that look under-valued, analysts said.

After severely underperforming their emerging market peers in 2009, Gulf markets caught up in 2010. The S&P GCC index gained 11 per cent last year, compared to a 13 per cent rise in the MSCI EM measure. MSCI BRIC remained an underperformer with a gain of just 3 per cent.

Saudi Arabia's net foreign assets surge to SR1.63tr

FT.com / Companies / Property - Nakheel wins right to reclaim contractor fees

Dubai’s troubled developer Nakheel has won the right to reclaim funds from one of its contractors in spite of failing to agree on how much money it owes its builder after cancelling one of its projects in 2008.

In its first victory at a tribunal hearing disputes relating to Nakheel’s parent, Dubai World, Justice Sir John Chadwick, member of the Dubai World Tribunal, dismissed an attempt by Gammon & Billimoria, an Indian contractor, to stop the developer’s demand last month for repayment of Dh32m ($8.7m) in advances.

In recent months, Nakheel has lost several hearings, twice having attempts to recover funds from contractors blocked.

Weekly Market Analysis (Week 2) — GCC Index Analysis , Weekly Index Review — GCC Market Analytics

The weekly market analysis pages have been updated for trading week 2 (January 8th - January 13th). Use the links below to view the individual market analysis pages:


The table below shows the market outlook based on each study.
Visit the links above to view the full analysis reports for all GCC markets.