Monday 9 September 2013

The Lehman legacy: Lessons learned?



750 billion dollar question: Norway voters decide future fate of massive oil fund — RT Business

750 billion dollar question: Norway voters decide future fate of massive oil fund — RT Business:

"
Statoil - the source of the wealth (Reuters / Koranyi Balazs)
The new center-right government, expected to assume power in Norway after Monday’s election, will be faced with a high-profile dilemma other European countries can only dream of. Namely, what to do with $750 billion dollars?

Established in 1990 as a repository for the country’s oil profits, the Government Pension Fund has become the biggest sovereign investment body in the world, after quadrupling in value since 2005. If divided up between the country’s 4.9 million people, it would leave each Norwegian with $145,000 in cash.

In placid Norway – where economic growth is expected to round out at three percent, while the rest of Europe’s economies shrink – the fate of the windfall has dominated the campaign, feeding on an anxiety that comes with having more money than the country obviously needs, and a fear of not capitalizing on a historic opportunity."

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Ukranian News - Businessman Kolomoiskyi Offers Leadership Of British JKX Oil & Gas Funding In Exchange For Control Of Ukrainian Assets

Ukranian News - Businessman Kolomoiskyi Offers Leadership Of British JKX Oil & Gas Funding In Exchange For Control Of Ukrainian Assets:

"
Privatbank's co-owner Ihor Kolomoiskyi in 2012 offered the leadership of the company JKX Oil & Gas Plc (Britain), which owns oil and gas assets in Ukraine, financial assistance in exchange for control of the main asset of the company - the Poltava Oil and Gas Company, which is one of the largest private producers of oil and gas in Ukraine.
This is evidenced by a British High Court decision dated August 30 in a dispute between JKX and Eclairs Group Limited (British Virgin Islands).
According to the document, JKX Oil & Gas ran into financial problems in 2012 and was unable to count on raising funds from conventional sources.
The executive director of JKX Oil & Gas, Paul Davies, went to meet with Kolomoiskyi in Monaco in August 2012 to discuss into the possibility of financing the company through PrivatBank."

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Fitch affirms Saudi Arabia's rating at 'AA-' | Arab News

Fitch affirms Saudi Arabia's rating at 'AA-' | Arab News — Saudi Arabia News, Middle East News, Opinion, Economy and more.:

"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Saudi Arabia's Long-Term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at "AA-". The Outlook is Positive. Fitch has also affirmed Saudi Arabia's Country Ceiling at "AA" and Short-Term foreign currency IDR at "F1+".
Fitch Ratings said Saudi Arabia's external balance sheet has been bolstered so far in 2013. Central bank net foreign assets, the bulk of sovereign foreign assets, are up by 4.4 percent of GDP over the first seven months of the year and with no sovereign external debt, the net external creditor position is likely above 100 percent of GDP (from 96 percent of GDP at end-2012). Double-digit current account surpluses are expected each year to 2015, which will further bolster the external position."

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Hungary takes €230m fine from Brussuls as it releases funds | beyondbrics

Hungary takes €230m fine from Brussuls as it releases funds | beyondbrics:

"
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, may denounce the European Union for what he calls “double standards” when dealing with Budapest; he may liken the Brussels administration of today to Moscow’s occupation of yesteryear; but when it comes to any loss of EU funding, he pretty quickly sends his top sidekicks to the Commission with strict instructions to talk nice and quietly – and get the money flowing again.

Thus, when last month it emerged that Brussels had suspended some funding to Hungary “due to significant deficiencies identified by Commission audits in the management and control systems of eight operational programmes,” Budapest moved fast and, seemingly, effectively.

“Suspended disbursements to Hungary may recommence within days, says EU commissioner,” was how the prime minister’s office saw things on Monday. As a result, €2bn in European Union funds will soon be “in circulation” in Hungary."

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Mega financial regulator has been created in Russia | Russia Beyond The Headlines

Mega financial regulator has been created in Russia | Russia Beyond The Headlines:

"
First deputy chairman Sergei Shvetsov was appointed to head a new Russian financial market
mega regulator. Source: ITAR-TASS
On Sept. 1, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation became the entire country’s financial market regulator, due to the transfer of a number of functions previously performed by the Federal Financial Markets Service (FFMS).
In addition to its supervision of commercial banks, the function of a single regulator includes monitoring non-bank financial institutions such as insurance companies, asset management companies, pension funds, brokers and exchange intermediaries, as well as microfinance institutions.
The new agency is headed by First Deputy Chairman Sergei Shvetsov — the ideologist behind the creation of a dual currency basket floating corridor, which was launched in 2009. According to him, the changes that accompany the transfer of the Central Bank’s functions will not be dramatic and will be quite slow. The main thing is the synergy effect from the merger of the two structures."

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Dubai average property price is world’s highest | GulfNews.com

Dubai average property price is world’s highest | GulfNews.com:


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From potash powerbroker to Minsk prison, the cost of crossing Belarus - Charter'97

From potash powerbroker to Minsk prison, the cost of crossing Belarus - Charter'97 :: News from Belarus - Belarusian News - Republic of Belarus - Minsk:

"
Vladislav Baumgertner has the fluent English, Western business degrees and meteoric career that typify Russia's young executive elite.

But the boss of Uralkali, the world's largest potash producer, is now more in need of Soviet-era survival skills, Reuters reports.

For two weeks Baumgertner, 41, has been held in a dank Stalin-era Belarusian cell, facing up to 10 years in jail on charges of abusing power and seeking gain at the expense of Belarus while chairman of a joint venture cartel, Belarusian Potash Company (BPC), which until last month controlled Russian and Belarusian exports of the fertilizer ingredient."

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Al Hilal Bank plans $500m sukuk - The National

Al Hilal Bank plans $500m sukuk - The National:

"Al Hilal Bank, the Islamic lender owned by the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, plans to launch a US$500 million sukuk by the end of the year.

The Islamic bond is expected to be used for general business purposes such as liquidity management and to form the first tranche of a $2.5 billion bond programme.

The sukuk was announced at the company's new Abu Dhabi headquarters Monday morning just a day after the bank was assigned its first credit rating by Agencies Moody's and Fitch."

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Next stop, dishwashers | FT Alphaville

Next stop, dishwashers | FT Alphaville: "Okay, don’t just think ‘Oh, Goldman are trying to wring a few last drops of revenue from the EM story…”



The fair thesis here is that while the demand for commodities such as wheat and copper from emerging markets may have peaked, when it comes to consumer durables we still have plenty way to go.

Kamakshya Trivedi and team at Goldman are trying to give a sense of where different countries stand on this “Ladder of Spending,” using 2012 data.

"

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Al Hilal Bank becomes only Islamic bank in the UAE to be rated A1 by Moody's & A+ by Fitch - bi-me.com

Al Hilal Bank becomes only Islamic bank in the UAE to be rated A1 by Moody's & A+ by Fitch - Business Intelligence Middle East - bi-me.com - News, analysis, reports:

"Al Hilal Bank has announced that it has been awarded an A1 rating by Moody’s and an A+ by Fitch, the highest ratings awarded to an Islamic Bank in the UAE.

Moody’s extended Al Hilal Bank an A1 rating with a stable outlook, citing the Bank’s robust franchise growth, strength of its asset quality, advanced technology infrastructure and government support as the rationale for the positive rating outcome.

Fitch Ratings extended the Bank an A+ rating with a stable outlook.  Fitch noted improving profitability, healthy asset quality, robust reserve coverage, satisfactory capitalization as well as government support as key rating factors."

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Chart of the week: China’s trade balance doesn’t always add up | beyondbrics

Chart of the week: China’s trade balance doesn’t always add up | beyondbrics:

"Chinese trade balance rose 8 per cent in August from 2012, up to $28.5bn from $17.8bn in July. The improvement was due to higher than expected exports, as demand picked up in Asia and parts of the developed world.

But trade data can be very volatile. Looking at a rolling 12 months, the growth in trade surplus is slowing. And although you would expect China to run a trade surplus with most, if not all, trading partners – China is the world’s biggest exporter, after all – there are some strange statistical puzzles in the data. Chart of the week takes a closer look.

China’s notoriously large goods trade surplus with the US has expanded over the last 5 years. Its trade surplus with the EU is also large, but it has been steadily declining from a peak of $149bn in the 12-months to August 2011 to $117bn in the 12-months to August this year, the lowest value since May 2010. Other major contributors to China’s trade surplus are the UK, Mexico, Vietnam and Turkey. China improved its strong trade position with all of those counties over the last 5 years.

"

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Ukraine power company DTEK raises $161 mln loan | Reuters

Ukraine power company DTEK raises $161 mln loan | Reuters:

"Ukraine's largest private power and coal producer, DTEK, has signed an agreement for a 5.35 billion Russian rouble ($161 million) credit line to replenish working capital and finance capital expenditure, it said on Monday.

The loan - in two tranches of three and five years - was arranged by Russia's VTB Capital Plc, the Investment Business of VTB Group, DTEK said in a statement.

DTEK, part of the empire of Ukraine's richest businessman, Rinat Akhmetov, accounts for about 29 percent of the country's thermal power generation. It also controls about 46 percent of Ukraine's coal production."

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MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf mkts resume slide, more declines seen | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf mkts resume slide, more declines seen | Reuters:

"Most Gulf bourses resumed declines on Monday as U.S. Congress prepared to debate on whether or not to approve a military strike on Syria, while Egypt rose after a full acquisition offer for Orascom Construction.

Dubai's benchmark dropped 2 percent to 2,325 points, giving back Sunday's gains to slump to a two-month low.

"This volatility shows the market didn't bottom out and the technical outlook is still negative," said Firas Al Zghaibi, financial markets strategist at brokerage MENA Corp.

"Most likely, the index will break below 2,300. A typical target is 2,220 but because of news-flow, volatility may rise so we might see lower levels.""

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Medvedev: Ukraine s association with EU to close the door on Customs Union| Ukrinform

Medvedev: Ukraine s association with EU to close the door on Customs Union| Ukrinform:

"
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
The signing by Ukraine of the Association Agreement with the European Union will close the door on its accession to the Customs Union, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said this at a meeting with Russia's deputy prime ministers on Monday, a Moscow-based Ukrinform reporter says .
"I want there be no illusions. After signing the agreement with the EU states on the associate membership, the entrance into the Customs Union for our Ukrainian partners will be actually closed. And leaders of the European Union tell about this quite frankly," he said.
The Russian prime minister believes that it must be understood by everyone, including the citizens of Ukraine. "This is a key political choice that the Ukraine leaders make today," Medvedev emphasized."

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Order Books for Eurobonds Opened | Business | The Moscow Times

Order Books for Eurobonds Opened | Business | The Moscow Times:

"The Finance Ministry opened order books Monday on dollar- and euro-denominated eurobonds after postponing the placement several times this year citing unfavorable market conditions.

The Finance Ministry plans to issue a three-tranche dollar-denominated eurobond and a two-tranche euro-denominated eurobond, one of the issue organizers and another source close to the placement said.

No size was specified, but the government has said it wanted to raise a total of $7 billion on international markets this year.

Fears of spillover effects from the withdrawal of unprecedented U.S. monetary stimulus have made borrowing more expensive in recent months, suggesting that Russia may in the end pay a price for waiting."

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Guest post: what investors should make of Moscow’s mayor | beyondbrics

Guest post: what investors should make of Moscow’s mayor | beyondbrics:

"
By Chris Weafer

The outcome of Sunday’s election for mayor of Moscow, and similar elections held in several other Russian cities, shows that the political landscape in Russia is changing. The protests of late 2011 and early 2012 are finally starting to deliver a positive legacy. The critics will of course say that the outcome in Moscow was predictable and nothing has changed. But they are wrong.

Sergei Sobyanin, the incumbent mayor and Sunday’s winner, had a real fight on his hands. He just about scrapped over the line to win the first round. More important, his principal challenger, the anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny, won almost 30 per cent of the vote and has established himself as the de-facto opposition figurehead for a new generation of Russians. In several other locations, opposition candidates actually defeated the pro-Kremlin candidates. That was unheard of in previous elections."

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Egypt unrest hits BG Group oil output plans - FT.com

Egypt unrest hits BG Group oil output plans - FT.com:

"Shares in BG Group fell 4 per cent in morning trading in London after the oil and gas group cut its production outlook for next year because of delays to new projects in Egypt and Norway.
The cut means that the company now expects production in 2014 to be lower by about 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/day). It does not have a production target for 2014 but analyst consensus is about 720,000 boe/day for the year."

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Prices per share of Ukrainian Agrarian Holdings on Foreign Stock Exchanges, 06.09.2013 — BlackSeaGrain

Prices per share of Ukrainian Agrarian Holdings on Foreign Stock Exchanges, 06.09.2013 — BlackSeaGrain: click through

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The Wrap: Morsi Wealth Investigated, Libya Public Sector Wages Up 20% | REBEL ECONOMY

The Wrap: Morsi Wealth Investigated, Libya Public Sector Wages Up 20% | REBEL ECONOMY:

"

  • EGYPT 

- Egyptian authorities examine Morsi family wealth - Ahram Online
The ousted Islamist president is accused of taking advantage of his position, as well as squandering LE2 billion ($285.7 million) during his election campaign. Egypt’s Illicit Gains Authority, the organisation that has thus far failed to follow through on most of its investigations against Mubarak-era politicians and businessmen, is among the entities leading the investigation.
Unfortunately, the IGA along with Public Funds investigator and the half a dozen or so other “investigation committees” have demonstrated that they are driven more by politics rather than a genuine desire to crackdown on illegal transactions and wipe out corruption. Many former officials of the old guard linked to corrupt dealings have got away with dismissals, retrials and prolonged case hearings."

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Lukoil aims to start natural gas production in Saudi Arabia in 2014

Lukoil aims to start natural gas production in Saudi Arabia in 2014:

"Russian oil producer Lukoil has announced that it has plans to start natural gas production in Saudi Arabia next year
Leonid Fedun, vice president of Lukoil, said, “We made a discovery of 400bn cubic metres in the country. This would be large enough and the first gas-producing project in Saudi Arabia.”
Lukoil had also secured a deal last decade to find and pump gas in Saudi Arabia from the project known as Block A.
The project creates a link between producer Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC’s) leading member and Russia, Reuters reported."

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Natural Gas: What the War in Syria is Really About

Natural Gas: What the War in Syria is Really About:

"
The US President is currently undertaking a massive sales pitch for war. We heard on the radio this morning that President Obama was set to front about six different media outlets today to make his case for war with Syria.

He'll be out perpetuating the lie that it's all about chemical weapons and defending the national interest and blah blah blah.

The more plausible story is that it's about natural gas. A Middle East conflict is always about energy...or religion. But this upcoming war over Syria is about energy. We don't pretend to know what it's all about, but we do think you'll find all this a little more convincing that the West's 'do-gooding' rhetoric about chemical weapons and humanitarianism.

The West (and Saudi Arabia) clearly wants regime change in Syria...probably because Syrian President Assad counts Russia and Iran amongst his mates.

But it's more than that. As far as we can tell, it's about the politics of natural gas. And it starts in the largest natural gas reservoir in the world - the South Pars/North Dome field in the Persian Gulf, a resource shared by Qatar and Iran.
"

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Agriculture could be Ukraine’s locomotive - EBRD — BlackSeaGrain

Agriculture could be Ukraine’s locomotive - EBRD — BlackSeaGrain:

"Director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Ukraine Sevki Acuner believes that agriculture will be the engine of Ukraine’s development, if the sector focuses on the further stages in the processing instead of primary production.

He said this at the International Chamber of Commerce Ukraine forum "Modern Trends of the World Business Organization" in Kyiv on Friday.

 "Agricultural products can be the engine of the country if you go further up the chain of processing and focus on consumer goods, packaging, transportation and sales at supermarkets," Acuner noted."

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Bahrain News Agency | BMI Bank and Al Salam Bk-Bahrain Set to Merge

Bahrain News Agency | BMI Bank and Al Salam Bk-Bahrain Set to Merge:

"Bahraini retail lender BMI said its board members have reached an agreement with Al Salam Bank-Bahrain, a dynamic, diversified and differentiated Islamic bank, to merge the two entities through a share swap deal.
The proposed merger will result in the group becoming the fourth largest commercial bank in Bahrain, according to a joint statement issued by both banks.
Announcing the decision on Sunday, the Bahraini banks said as per the new agreement 11 ASBB shares will be swapped in exchange for each BMI Bank share. "

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No fresh move on Saudi bourse opening: regulator | Reuters

No fresh move on Saudi bourse opening: regulator | Reuters:

"Saudi Arabian officials are still discussing the opening of the stock market to direct foreign investment and no timetable has been set, the chief market regulator said on Sunday.

"We are still discussing the issue. I said this a few months ago and I don't think anything has changed," Mohammed bin Abdulmalik Al al-Sheikh, head of the Capital Market Authority, said at a securities industry conference.

"Some government entities are looking into the issue and once there is something we will announce it. So far there is nothing new.""

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Du-Google Partnership Aims To Bolster UAE SMEs » Gulf Business

Du-Google Partnership Aims To Bolster UAE SMEs » Gulf Business:

"Du has announced the launch of a new business plan, in partnership with Google, to help boost the online presence of small and medium entreprises (SMEs) in the UAE.

The new Business Super 600-G plan will enable SMEs to have a better and more relevant reach online via Google’s AdWords platform.

AdWords enable businesses to advertise their products and services exactly at a time when customers are looking for them. Du’s super business plan falls under Google AdWords Premier SMB programme where small businesses receive training on how to set up an account and monitor it."

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Dubai group makes bid for Kenya car dealer - FT.com

Dubai group makes bid for Kenya car dealer - FT.com:

"Dubai’s Al-Futtaim Group is poised to launch a takeover offer for Kenya-based car dealership CMC Holdings as one of the Gulf’s largest conglomerates seeks to expand into sub-Saharan Africa.
The proposed deal, expected to be announced on Monday, underlines rising interest in sub-Saharan Africa from well-capitalised companies in the Gulf states, including Dubai.
Al-Futtaim said the potential takeover, which remains subject to regulatory approval, would be one of the largest foreign direct investments into the east African economy in recent years."

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Happy Anniversary Lehman Brothers, And What We Haven’t Learned About Wall Street Over Past Five Years - OpEd Eurasia Review

Happy Anniversary Lehman Brothers, And What We Haven’t Learned About Wall Street Over Past Five Years - OpEd Eurasia Review:

"
While attention is focused on Syria, the gambling addiction of Wall Street’s biggest banks is more dangerous than ever.

Five years ago this September, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and the Street hurtled toward the worst financial crisis in eighty years. Yet the biggest Wall Street banks are far larger now than they were then. And the Dodd-Frank rules designed to stop them from betting with the insured deposits of ordinary savers are still on the drawing boards — courtesy of the banks’ lobbying prowess. The so-called Volcker Rule has yet to see the light of day.

To be sure, the banks’ balance sheets are better than they were five years ago. The banks have raised lots of capital and written off many bad loans. (Their risk-weighted capital ratio is now about 60 percent higher than before the crisis.)"

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Saudi Gazette - CMA forms advisory body to further enhance its role

Saudi Gazette - CMA forms advisory body to further enhance its role:

"The Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) formed an advisory committee composed of all stakeholders in the money market in the Kingdom, CMA Governor Mohammed Al Sheikh said Sunday at the opening ceremony of the 2nd Annual Saudi Securities Forum.

“The committee, composed of members from the Authority, banks, investment corporations, investors, academics, financial consultants, and journalists, will provide consultation, advise, suggestion and recommendations that will enhance the role of the Authority in doing its mandate and develop the Saudi capital market to better levels,” he said.

The governor further said that the level of transparency by Saudi companies in announcing the financial data has risen by 26.4 percent in 2012 to 3,771 announcements."

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Abu Dhabi's utility co ADWEA to acquire Jaypee’s hydro assets in Himachal for $2 billion - The Economic Times

Abu Dhabi's utility co ADWEA to acquire Jaypee’s hydro assets in Himachal for $2 billion - The Economic Times:

"In what would be the biggest signal of a revival of strategic foreign interest in distressed Indian power firms after a long hiatus, Abu Dhabi government's flagship public utility holding company Abu Dhabi Water & Electric Authority (ADWEA) has emerged as the frontrunner to acquire two mega operating hydro-power projects in Himachal Pradesh from the diversified infrastructure conglomerate Jaypee Group.

Jaypee's listed power arm Jaiprakash Power Ventures Limited (JPVL) - also the country's largest private sector hydro-power producer with 1.7 giga watts (GW) operational capacity -- is in advance negotiations with ADWEA and its underlying operating companies to sell the 300 mega watts (MW) Baspa II and the 1000 MW Karcham Wangtoo project on the Sutlej river for around Rs 12,000 - Rs 13,000 crore ($1.84 -$2 billion at Rs 65/dollar conversion), said multiple sources involved. The total project cost for the two is close to Rs 8900 crore, which includes Rs 2600 crore equity.
"

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If Syria Is All About a Qatari Pipeline, Why Are the Saudis Trying to Overthrow Assad?

If Syria Is All About a Qatari Pipeline, Why Are the Saudis Trying to Overthrow Assad?:

"The latest conspiracy theory regarding Syria is that this is all a Qatari plot designed to open up a route for a natural gas pipeline.  (Google Qatar Syria Gas Pipeline and you get about 1.3 million hits, virtually all of the first several hundred are about this theory.)
Several comments.
First, consider the source. This is has been a Syrian propaganda line since very early on.
Second, consider who is flogging this theory, notably Alex Jones and Zerohedge, both of whom are reliable Putin pilot fish, with the former being a notorious propagator of outlandish conspiracy theories involving the US government, including 911 Truther type conspiracies."

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UAE brokerages turn profit for first time since crisis - The National

UAE brokerages turn profit for first time since crisis - The National:

"UAE brokerage firms are back in the black for the first time since the global financial crisis.

They made Dh64.3 million in the second quarter, compared with a loss of Dh36.9m last year, amid reignited investor appetite for local stocks in the run-up to the upgrade of the UAE's classification to emerging markets status.

"For a country like the UAE, it was a decent trading value overall to run a business," said Fathi Ben Grira, the chief executive at Mena Corp. The Abu Dhabi-based financial services company recorded a quarterly profit of Dh7.6m, from a loss of Dh1.38m last year, according to financial statements posted on the market regulator's website."

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Investor mix is much more varied and longer term | GulfNews.com

Investor mix is much more varied and longer term | GulfNews.com:

"Overseas investors were the first to head for the exit as soon as the first clouds of financial uncertainty appeared on the horizon in 2008. And they were among the first to try and muscle their way back into Dubai’s property market as soon as the headwinds turned favourable in 2011 and they realised they could make full use of the still depressed values.
Which leaves open the question — is the present upturn in the local property market built on funding that could conceivably leave at any stage in search of better returns?
Fadi Moussalli, regional director for the International Capital Group at Jones Lang LaSalle Mena, offers an emphatic “No!”. “It’s undeniable that the Arab region’s turbulence influenced Dubai’s property market in a positive manner; what it means is that there’s a sizeable base of recent investors from the wider region and the GCC who see in a Dubai property asset a longer term commitment,” said Moussalli. “The mix is much more subtle than was the case up to 2008."

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UAE realty learns lessons from Lehman | GulfNews.com

UAE realty learns lessons from Lehman | GulfNews.com:

"
  • Image Credit: Abdel-Krim Kallouche/Gulf News Archives
  • Skyline view of Dubai Marina Towers in Dubai. According to Abu Ali Malek Shroff, CEO of Sheffield Holdings, ‘the downturn of 2009 cannot all be coloured in black where local real estate is concerned. Marina 101 was one among the many projects announced during the peak years between 2005 to 2008’.
UAE’s property market has every reason to blame Lehman Brothers for the freefall it went through in 2009 and the on-edge nature of its existence in 2010. No other sector in the local economy had to bear the direct — and immediate — consequences of the investment bank’s failure which set off the chain of events that culminated in the Great Recession.
Foreign investors who had huffed and puffed local property levels to stratospheric levels between 2005 and September 2008 made a beeline for the exit doors. Developers who it seemed were there just to announce a new project every other week found they were staring at a vacant marketplace. Genuine investors who came on board the realty show in the hope of staying for the long term found that the promise of prestige projects with celebrity neighbours was about to become a living nightmare.
For sure, UAE’s property market — and its then stakeholders — can blame it on Lehman. But a full five years down the line, it has a lot to be thankful for as well."

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