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Friday, 17 January 2014

Former Russian finance minister doubts Ukraine ability to repay bailout - Ukraine Business #EuroMaidan

Former Russian finance minister doubts Ukraine ability to repay bailout - World - News - Ukraine Business Online:

"Ukraine’s sudden eastward shift in policy was the result of a deal made in negotiations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych.

For Ukraine the deal provided a much-needed loan to revive a mismanaged economy on the verge of collapse. For Russia, it meant a decision by Putin to raid the National Wealth Fund of $15 billion with an unusual payback mechanism operated through Ukraine sovereign debt securities registered on an exchange in Ireland.

Russia’s National Wealth Fund is not intended for such purposes but in the Russian political climate, a decision by the president settled the matter."

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A supply-side face-off in oil | FT Alphaville

A supply-side face-off in oil | FT Alphaville:

"As we alluded to earlier, there is a battle taking place in the oil markets at the moment.

On one side there are conventional oil producers like Opec members desperate to stop oil prices from following the declining trajectory of the wider commodity complex. On the other side there are the new US shale oil producers, who — due to the US export ban — are unable to capture the full earnings potential of their production (on account of an inability to tap foreign bids directly).

The problem for Opec types is that the break-even rates they seek to defend are now too high to prevent the new class of producer from being incentivised to keep producing. This despite the fact that the export bottleneck only ends up transferring much of the profitability to the refining sector instead of the US producer.

As pressures mount, it’s fair to presume that at some point something will have to give. One group will be forced by to scale back production, whether they like it or not."

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Best property price gains in Dubai are done and dusted | The National

Best property price gains in Dubai are done and dusted | The National:

"So Dubai Land Department is planning new rules for off-plan sales and its director general Sultan bin Mejren is warning that house prices may rise 35 to 40 per cent this year. However, having claimed the crown of fastest growing house prices in the world for the first nine months of 2013, Dubai homeowners will probably see lower house price gains in 2014.

This forecast is easy enough to make. Knight Frank reported Dubai house prices rising by 28.5 per cent in the first nine months of 2013, the fastest growth in the world. That was actually a lot lower than Cluttons’ estimate of a 53 per cent price increase.

Is that not an unsustainable price spike? That said, the risk of a substantial correction from the runaway gains of the past two years is low."

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Apple: hello 750m new customers? | beyondbrics

Apple: hello 750m new customers? | beyondbrics:

Which company added over 50m new paying subscribers in 2013 alone? Yup, China Mobile. The company now has 763m customers, all of whom as of Friday can now buy an iPhone.

Success! No wonder Apple chief executive Tim Cook looks excited to be in Beijing. But it might not be quite that simple.

Yes, the rise of China Mobile is phenominal. It’s hard to think of a comparable company in terms of numbers. Even Facebook, which has 1.19bn monthly active users, is a free-to-use service.

Here’s China Mobile subscriber growth since 2008:


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RPT-Fitch: Russian lending to Ukraine offers short-term relief | Reuters

RPT-Fitch: Russian lending to Ukraine offers short-term relief | Reuters:

"Fitch Ratings says in a new report that Russia's provision of external financing and cheaper gas supplies to Ukraine significantly reduces the risk of a sovereign external liquidity crisis in 2014. However, it also allows Ukraine to continue to run unsustainable fiscal and external deficits, building up public and external debt, and creates a hump in debt repayments in 2016.

Ukraine received the first USD3bn tranche of a promised USD15bn in Russian financing on 24 December 2013 and plans to place a further USD12bn in Eurobonds by end-2014. The schedule and amount of borrowing is still being discussed. If realised, this would be more than sufficient to refinance USD6.7bn in sovereign external debt repayments in 2014, although the government will still need to borrow elsewhere to finance a widening fiscal deficit of up to 7% of GDP."

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▶ Madness of crowds - YouTube

▶ Madness of crowds - YouTube:

"Markets often behave like unruly crowds and the urge to follow the herd has intensified. Anne Richards, Aberdeen Asset Management's chief investment officer, discusses with John Authers contrarian moves, the virtual currency and emerging markets


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Billion-dollar boost for UAE and Qatar stock markets | The National

Billion-dollar boost for UAE and Qatar stock markets | The National:

"As UAE and Qatari stocks inch closer to their inclusion on MSCI’s emerging markets index, analysts are already expecting fresh inflows to top US$1 billion for those countries’ stock markets.

A report by EFG-Hermes, the region’s biggest publicly listed investment bank, forecast $516 million in new money to the UAE, with the Dubai developer Emaar Properties enjoying the bulk of that liquidity. “Our estimates indicate that Emaar and QNB [Qatar National Bank] will see the largest dollar flow from passive funds, of $162m and $102m, respectively,” said the research analysts Simon Kitchen and Mohamed Al Hajj in a note to clients yesterday.

The analysts estimated $492m worth of inflows for Qatar."

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Mohammad’s law makes Dubal a private joint stocks company |

Mohammad’s law makes Dubal a private joint stocks company |

"His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, in his capacity as Ruler of Dubai, has issued Law No 1 of 2014 converting Dubai Aluminium (Dubal) into a private joint stocks company. Pursuant to the Law, the name of the new company is “Dubai Aluminium P.J.S.” with a declared capital of Dh3 billion, headquartered in Dubai and may establish branches inside and outside the UAE.
Article 6 of that law stated that the Dubai Aluminium P.J.S. subrogates Dubai Aluminium in all legal and business obligations and rights starting from the date of effective of this law, and the employees of Dubai Aluminium shall benefit from their vested right."

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PineBridge Says Buy Russian Real Estate to Retailers - Bloomberg

PineBridge Says Buy Russian Real Estate to Retailers - Bloomberg:

"PineBridge Investment LLC and OAO Sberbank are recommending investors buy Russian real-estate companies and retailers on prospects the industries will benefit from rising incomes in the world’s biggest country.

Grocer OAO Dixy Group and electronics retailer OAO are PineBridge’s top picks for Russia in 2014, the company said in a report yesterday. Sberbank’s recommendations for 2014 include supermarket operators OAO Magnit and X5 Retail Group NV (FIVE), as well as developer Etalon Group Ltd. (ETLN) The Bloomberg Russia-US Equity Index of the most-traded Russian stocks in the U.S fell 0.4 to 98.52 yesterday, led by OAO Mechel.

PineBridge, the money manager controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Richard Li, joins Sberbank and Bank of America Corp. in recommending buying Russian consumer equities amid the cheapest valuations among developing nations. Russian retail sales rose at a faster pace than economists predicted in November as unemployment fell and real wages grew, tempering concerns about slowing economic growth"

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Miners Chopping $10 Billion Search Bodes Next Price Boom - Bloomberg

Miners Chopping $10 Billion Search Bodes Next Price Boom - Bloomberg:

"Mining companies are extending massive cuts in exploration budgets for a second year, setting up the next price boom as China continues its relentless pursuit of metals and energy.

Exploration spending plunged by 30 percent or $10 billion last year, squeezing budgets to search for minerals and sustain supplies, according to MinEx Consulting Pty, whose clients include BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest miner. Payments may drop another 10 percent this year for geologists, drilling exploratory holes and analyzing mineral specks to unearth the next copper, iron ore or gold El Dorado, MinEx said.

Investors in mining companies and metals may welcome the cuts because they’ll help propel a rebound in prices. Platinum, aluminum, silver, nickel, zinc, lead and uranium all are forecast to rise by 2017, according to the median of analyst estimates compiled Jan. 16 by Bloomberg. The losers will be buyers of cans, cars and all the goods made from metals."

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Europe Days From Lifting Reinsurance Ban on Iran Oil Exports - Bloomberg

Europe Days From Lifting Reinsurance Ban on Iran Oil Exports - Bloomberg:

"Europe is days from suspending a ban on reinsuring tankers hauling Iranian oil, a measure that helped cut the nation’s crude exports by more than 50 percent when it was implemented.

The six-month relaxation starts Jan. 20 and will allow companies following European Union law to reinsure tankers shipping Iran’s oil to India, China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey and Taiwan, an EU official told reporters in Brussels today, speaking on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to be quoted by name. The step affects most of the world fleet because 90 percent of all merchant vessels are covered by members of the London-based International Group of P&I Clubs.

Iran’s oil exports plunged to about 1 million barrels a day last year from 2.5 million before sanctions started in 2012, according to the White House. The plan to ease the reinsurance ban was agreed in November, following negotiations between Iran and world powers seeking to curb the nation’s nuclear program. European companies are still barred from purchasing Iranian oil and the accord in Geneva doesn’t allow the Persian Gulf state to boost exports."

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