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Monday, 28 April 2014

Roubini: Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back to Recession: Video - Bloomberg #EuroMaidan

Roubini: Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back to Recession: Video - Bloomberg: ""



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Money talks: April 28th 2014 - YouTube

Money talks: April 28th 2014 - YouTube: ""



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Ukraine's Russian Bonds - A Gazprom Clause? - Credit Slips #EuroMaidan

Ukraine's Russian Bonds - A Gazprom Clause? - Credit Slips:



"About a month ago, smart folks zeroed in on a single clause in Russia's two-year $3 billion loan to Ukraine. The December 2013 loan was documented as an ordinary-looking eurobond, apart from a promise by Ukraine to keep its debt under 60% of its GDP. No other Ukrainian bond had the debt/GDP clause, which naturally looked awkward when the sole bondholder started hacking at the denominator of the debt/GDP fraction (Crimea, about 3% of GDP; east and south, about 45%).



Since then, I have communed a bit with Ukrainian bond prospectuses, and stumbled on another clause only found in the Russian bond. All of Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed foreign bonds cross-default to one another: if Ukraine skips a bond payment due in 2014, holders of the bond due in 2021 can accelerate. However, the Russian bond also cross-defaults to "any indebtedness ... owed to the Noteholder or to any entity controlled or majority-owned by the Noteholder". Compare the cross-default provision in this Ukrainian bond to this one  (search "Events of Default", "Indebtedness of Ukraine" and "Relevant Indebtedness")."



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Sanctions Round 3: Fresh batch targets Russian politics, energy & aviation players - YouTube #EuroMaidan

Sanctions Round 3: Fresh batch targets Russian politics, energy & aviation players - YouTube: ""



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Guest post: investing in MENA markets – why plain vanilla is not enough – beyondbrics - Blogs - FT.com

Guest post: investing in MENA markets – why plain vanilla is not enough – beyondbrics - Blogs - FT.com:



"

By Hashem Montasser of Frontlane Capital



On a recent visit to the beach, my three year old son asked for some ice cream. I escorted him to the parlour and before I had a chance to order his usual choice of vanilla, his eyes lit up over the myriad of flavours and he promptly decided it was time to up the ante: why settle for plain vanilla if he can choose between many more flavours and even add chocolate sauce on top?



With equity markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) staging a comeback led by a 45 per cent rally since 2013, a decidedly “feel good” factor is hear again. But it is only a matter of time before MENA market sympathizers reach a similar conclusion to my three year old’s: why invest in Middle East markets if other emerging markets are offering an expanded menu of options? While the recent rally feels good and will undoubtedly attract the odd punting hedge fund here or there, it is neither sufficient to excite the global investment community nor would it occupy their mindshare over the long term. Here’s why."



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MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf markets dip as retail investors book profits | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf markets dip as retail investors book profits | Reuters:



"Most stock markets in the Gulf declined on Monday as retail investors booked profits in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar after strong gains lifted those bourses to multi-year peaks earlier this month.



The three markets are the top performers in the region: Dubai has gained 51 percent, Abu Dhabi is up 19 percent and Qatar has added 22 percent.



"Given the run-up year-to-date, it is natural to see them (retail investors) book a little bit of profit," said Amer Khan, senior executive at Shuaa Asset Management.



Also, all three markets have been boosted by expectations of increased foreign investment since index compiler MSCI said last June it would upgrade them to emerging market status at the end of May 2014."



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​Russia and Iran strike $10bn energy deal — RT Business

​Russia and Iran strike $10bn energy deal — RT Business:



"Iran and Russia are negotiating a power deal worth up to $10 billion. The negotiations include the construction of new thermal and hydroelectric plants and a transmission network.



Iran’s Energy Minister Hamid Chitchian met his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Tehran to discuss the power deals, according to the Mehr news agency. They include the possibility of Russia exporting 500 megawatts of electricity to Iran.



Moscow is discussing with Tehran the trade of 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil for Russian goods. The deal could be worth as much as $20 billion, and has rattled Washington because it could bring Iran's crude exports above a one million barrels a day which is the threshold agreed upon in the nuclear deal."



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Emaar Properties mulls early Dubai-only malls IPO to cash in on surging local liquidity « ArabianMoney

Emaar Properties mulls early Dubai-only malls IPO to cash in on surging local liquidity « ArabianMoney:



"Emaar Properties is rumored to be considering a rapid initial public offering for its malls and retail business in Dubai rather than a dual listing with London as reported last month. This would allow the IPO to go ahead very quickly and cash-in on the surging liquidity of the Dubai Financial Market whose valuation is up 52 per cent this year after more than doubling in 2013.



Last week the first DFM IPO in five years for a retail start-up Marka attracted a 36-times over-subscription for a $75 million share sale with $2.7 billlion chasing the stock. That amount is roughly what Emaar hopes to raise from the sale of its malls and retail business."



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Ukraine bond poses dilemma for banks | Reuters #EuroMaidan

Ukraine bond poses dilemma for banks | Reuters:



"Arrangers of a potential US government-guaranteed bond from Ukraine face a delicate decision about whether to get involved in such a politically charged transaction, according to bankers.



Ukraine could issue a bond after the US Treasury signed a US$1bn loan guarantee with Kiev earlier this month as part of an internationally co-ordinated effort to support the troubled country. US banks are expected to lead any transaction.



But as the stand-off between Ukraine and Russia threatens to turn into a full-blown military conflict, some bankers say the decision to work on the deal is far from straightforward."



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The South Stream “pipeline” and Bulgarian syntactical gynmastics – beyondbrics - Blogs - FT.com

The South Stream “pipeline” and Bulgarian syntactical gynmastics – beyondbrics - Blogs - FT.com:



"

When is a pipeline not a pipeline? When it’s a highly-controversial Russian energy project that would cut Ukraine out of the European gas supply equation – at least according to Bulgaria’s parliament.



The EU member state is at loggerheads with the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, over the South Stream gas pipeline that would carry Russian gas from Bulgaria through Serbia to central Europe and Italy.





Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the EC has rallied against the Gazprom-led project, which would allow the Russian energy giant to supply its customers in Europe without sending exports through troublesome Ukraine. But Bulgaria, which stands to benefit both from improved energy security and from gas transit fees, has continued to back South Stream, including through a piece of legislative syntactical gymnastics that would be amusing were so much not at stake."



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#Slavyansk mystery dispelled: Russia is fighting for vast shale gas deposits - Charter'97 : #EuroMaidan

Slavyansk mystery dispelled: Russia is fighting for vast shale gas deposits - Charter'97 :: News from Belarus - Belarusian News - Republic of Belarus - Minsk:



"Slavyansk has become a hot stop due to shale gas deposits. 




This follows from a TSN news piece. 




Journalists did their own investigation of the mystery of the so-called “Yuzov project”, which is reluctantly discussed in Ukraine, because it implies significant resources, which can change the world’s energy map. 




The circumstances point at that there is no fight for humane ideals, for federalization or protection of Russian-speaking population and Slavic patriots and against the mythical “Banderists” in Donbas, NEWSru.ua reports.



These are all made up images, created in the Kremlin offices and put in the heads of common Donbas residents, in order to cover the true goal of Russia’s special operation.



Thus, there are no important enterprises in the town of Slavyansk, neither mines, nor military bases or scientific institutions. However, it stands in the very center of the territory of the “Yuzov project”, where the deposits are located of the energy source of the 21st century are located - of the tight sandstone natural gas also known as shale gas."



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Dubai Overtakes Heathrow as Busiest Airport for International Passengers - WSJ.com

Dubai Overtakes Heathrow as Busiest Airport for International Passengers - WSJ.com:



"

An Emirates airline passenger jet taxis on the tarmac at Dubai International airport in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press
Dubai International became the busiest airport globally for international passengers in the first quarter, overtaking London's Heathrow, and illustrating the stellar growth of Emirates Airline in less than 30 years of operations.



Dubai's main hub, the home of Emirates, handled 18.36 million international passengers in the first quarter of the year, Dubai Airports said in a statement Monday. Heathrow saw a total 16.1 million people pass through the airport in the same period, according to statements on the airport's website.



Heathrow pipped Dubai last year to the top spot for international traffic, followed by Hong Kong and Paris, according to official figures from Airports Council International, a global trade body, which hasn't released first quarter figures yet."



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UPDATE 1-Abu Dhabi government fund backing Etisalat's Maroc Tel buy - sources | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Abu Dhabi government fund backing Etisalat's Maroc Tel buy - sources | Reuters:



"An Abu Dhabi state-owned fund is financing a quarter of Etisalat's 4.2 billion euro purchase of Vivendi's stake in Maroc Telecom, said three bank sources with knowledge of the deal, adding it should close this week.



The identity of the fund is a closely-guarded secret. The banks that will provide the remaining 3.15 billion euros of loan finance have not been told which of the emirate's state-owned entities is supplying the cash. 




The fund is most likely to be Mubadala, two of the banking sources and one industry source said, given that it already has telecommunications assets and an existing partnership with Etisalat in Africa."



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Ukraine crisis: Britain to host talks over looted assets - Telegraph #EuroMaidan

Ukraine crisis: Britain to host talks over looted assets - Telegraph:



"Britain will on Tuesday host international talks aimed at recovering Ukrainian assets believed to have been looted under the regime of deposed president Viktor Yanukovych.



The international Ukraine Forum on Asset Recovery (UFAR) - led by Britain and the United States - unveiled details of the talks on Monday, calling them "a landmark for Ukraine".



UFAR hopes to mobilise the international community in order to track down and recover stolen assets, in the process sending "a strong message that there is no impunity for those who carry out such illegal actions"."



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Keep it simple, stupid - YouTube

Keep it simple, stupid - YouTube: ""



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Dubai sovereign debt pushed up to $54.8bn but ‘stabilising’ | The National

Dubai sovereign debt pushed up to $54.8bn but ‘stabilising’ | The National:



"The Dubai government’s recent sukuk sale has pushed up sovereign debt to US$54.8 billion but general indebtedness is “stabilising”, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.



The Department of Finance last week issued a $750 million, 15-year sukuk priced at 5 per cent, the first bond sale by the emirate in more than a year.



BAML said the proceeds would be used to help repay a $1.9bn sukuk due in November.



“Dubai sovereign debt appears to be stabilising, in line with our view that the growth recovery would ease deleveraging trends at the sovereign level,” wrote Jean-Michel Saliba, a BAML economist and author of the research note, released yesterday."



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Dubai Financial Market takes its show on the road to London | The National

Dubai Financial Market takes its show on the road to London | The National:



"The Dubai stock exchanges will showcase their recent spectacular performance for global investors as the emirate’s latest international roadshow hits London.



Dubai Financial Market and Nasdaq Dubai are bringing representatives of their 14 biggest companies to the biggest market in the European trading zone with the message – there is more to come.



Essa Kazim, the chairman of Borse Dubai, which owns both markets, will lead the delegation. “We have a good story to tell, so why should we not brag about it? The indices are among the best performing in the world, but we still want to encourage more institutional investors,” he said."



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Rouhani honeymoon over as Iran’s economy bites | GulfNews.com

Rouhani honeymoon over as Iran’s economy bites | GulfNews.com:



"Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani was elected on hopes that he could revive the country’s sanctions-neutered economy, but the public’s goodwill towards him is showing the first signs of fading.



Having raised expectations of more moderate rule and wider engagement after eight years under the acerbic leadership of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rouhani has established a cautious d├ętente with the West since taking power last August.



At home he has started to slow the inflation rate that stemmed from his predecessor’s spending programmes which, though meant to keep the economy going as Iran became more isolated because of sanctions, ultimately deepened its difficulties."



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Etisalat Group’s revenues touch Dh9.9 billion | GulfNews.com

Etisalat Group’s revenues touch Dh9.9 billion | GulfNews.com:



"Innovation has driven Etisalat Group’s consolidated revenues to reach Dh9.9 billion and subscriber base to touch 145 million in the first quarter of the year, the company announced yesterday.



The telecommunication services provider, which operates in 15 countries including the UAE, reported that its overall subscriber base expanded by 4.5 million during the last 12 months ending March 31, 2014, while its consolidated income jumped by 3 per cent year over year.



The company’s consolidated net profit after Federal Royalty increased year over year by 11 per cent to 2 billion. Benefiting from the positive growth, Etisalat shareholders were granted dividends amounting to 70 fils per share for the year 2013."



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Magnit Rout Shows Russian Consumer Fading as Rates Rise - Bloomberg

Magnit Rout Shows Russian Consumer Fading as Rates Rise - Bloomberg:



"OAO Magnit (MGNT), last year’s Russian stock-market darling, is turning into one of this year’s laggards.



The country’s largest retailer dropped to a 12-month low last week as a surprise interest-rate increase by Bank Rossii sparked concern that a slowdown in consumer spending will deepen. After a resilient retail industry formed one of the few bright spots last year for an economy that grew at its slowest pace since 2009, higher lending costs are sapping consumer demand just as the nation struggles to contain the economic and political fallout from its push into neighboring Ukraine.



Magnit’s global depositary receipts fell 3.8 percent to $45.50 on April 25 in London, extending its worst weekly decline since 2011 to 13 percent. The stock is down 31 percent this year after soaring 65 percent in 2013. The Bloomberg Russia-US Equity Index sank 7.9 percent last week as the truce forged to ease tension in eastern Ukraine unraveled, fueling concern that President Vladimir Putin faces stiffer international sanctions."



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Russian Billions Scattered Abroad Leave Trail to Putin Circle - Bloomberg

Russian Billions Scattered Abroad Leave Trail to Putin Circle - Bloomberg:



"Outside a Moscow stadium one night in 2006, deputy central bank chief Andrei Kozlov was walking to his car after playing soccer when two men opened fire, pumping bullets into his head and neck and killing his driver.



Days before the murders, the man leading Russia’s fight against money laundering had shut down a scheme used to funnel $1.6 billion of dirty funds abroad, including at least $112 million via Vienna-based Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG, according to Russian and Austrian investigators.



It was a trickle in a flood of illegal outflows that would reach $52 billion in 2012 alone, according to former central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev. Such flows are now in the cross hairs of President Barack Obama’s efforts to penalize Vladimir Putin for annexing Crimea and to halt his incursions into Ukraine. Obama signed a law on aid to Ukraine this month that includes a clause that allows the U.S. to go after assets of Russian officials and their allies who are deemed complicit in “significant corruption.”"



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Industries Qatar Profit Misses Estimates Amid Plant Shutdowns - Bloomberg

Industries Qatar Profit Misses Estimates Amid Plant Shutdowns - Bloomberg:



"Industries Qatar QSC, the Persian Gulf nation’s biggest petrochemicals company, posted a bigger-than-expected 38 percent drop in first-quarter profit.



Net income fell to 1.59 billion riyals ($420 million) from 2.55 billion riyals a year earlier, according to an e-mailed statement from the company. The mean estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for a profit of 1.81 billion riyals, data compiled by Bloomberg show.



Plant shutdowns for maintenance “was a driver” of the financial results, said Bobby Sarkar, head of research at Qatar National Bank Financial Services, who predicted a first-quarter net income of 1.68 billion riyals, according to Bloomberg data. “This quarter had significant scheduled shutdowns, especially in urea,” he said in a phone interview."



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DP World Said to Seek 33% Price Cut on Five-Year Debt Facility - Bloomberg

DP World Said to Seek 33% Price Cut on Five-Year Debt Facility - Bloomberg:



"DP World Ltd. (DPW), the world’s third-biggest port operator, asked lenders to cut the price on a five-year credit facility by a third to benefit from falling interest rates, two bankers familiar with the request said.



The port operator, owned by Dubai World, one of the emirate’s three main state-controlled holding companies, is seeking a reduction to 150 basis points, or 1.5 percentage points, over the London interbank offered rate, the bankers said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. That’s down from 225 basis points when the loan was raised in 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



The Dubai-based company also asked lenders to triple the revolving credit facility’s size to $3 billion as it seeks to benefit from lenders’ excess cash, according to the bankers. DP World undertakes an annual review of its banking facilities as part of active financial management, it said in an e-mail today. Reuters reported DP World’s request on April 24."



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