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Friday, 20 June 2014

UAE poised to record large external surpluses in 2014−15 | GulfNews.com

UAE poised to record large external surpluses in 2014−15 | GulfNews.com:



"The UAE posted a current-account surplus of $65 billion (Dh239.07 billion) in 2013, and should maintain large surpluses over the next two years thanks to elevated global oil prices, said Bryan Plamondon, Senior Economist, IHS Economics.



Country’s current-account surplus held strong at $64.7 billion (16 per cent of GDP) in 2013, following an upwardly revised surplus of $69 billion (18 per cent of GDP) in 2012.



The foreign trade surplus reached a new high last year, as elevated oil prices, higher output, and strengthening external demand helped drive 8.3 per cent growth in exports."



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That was nuts. Is this the Dubai crash? | FT Alphaville

That was nuts. Is this the Dubai crash? | FT Alphaville:

Dubai stocks went bonkers last year, along with Qatar, distorting the performance of the (anyway tiny) frontier markets index.
Locals rediscovered their lust for equities, while foreigners were excited by a potential upgrade to emerging market status and the billions of dollars of inflows from index funds that would represent. In total the index more than tripled in two years.
In the past month it’s all gone wrong, and strategist Andrew Howell at Citi has a good reason why: the performance of Dubai, represented by the MSCI UAE index, looks very much like the out-of-control price inflation represented by the Nasdaq during the dotcom bubble.
If his comparison has more to it than similar percentage gains and a matching double-top pattern, investors may rightly worry about prospects for the next couple of years. Dotcom investors, after all, only had to worry about bonkers prices, without any risk of a religious war in the region. (The x-axis represents days before and after the peak.)
MSCI UAE vs Nasdaq
Source: Citigroup
Those looking for a reason to buy could look further back (chart below).
Dubai bubbles
Outsiders may see froth, but compared to the run-up in shares in 2004-2006, this is nothing. In the middle of that bubble, in just a month from late June 2005 the market lost a quarter of its value – before going on to gain another 63 per cent. It is now worth only half what it was at its peak. A bargain, surely…
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Analysis: Understanding Qatar's stock market slide - Doha News

Analysis: Understanding Qatar's stock market slide - Doha News:



"It’s been a wild ride for investors on the Qatar Exchange over the last couple of years.



Between July 2012 and the start of this month, the market’s main index rose by nearly two-thirds and reached an all-time high. But then, share prices started to decline, with the index plunging more than nine percent this month alone.



So what’s going on in the country’s financial market?"



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Reuters Insider: Stock Market Developments in Iraq

Live chart: The low countries - YouTube

Live chart: The low countries - YouTube: ""



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Fitch Affirms Bahrain at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable | Reuters

Fitch Affirms Bahrain at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable | Reuters:



"(The following statement was released by the rating agency) LONDON, June 20 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has affirmed Bahrain's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB' and local currency IDR at 'BBB+'. The Outlooks are Stable. The issue ratings on Bahrain's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'BBB' and 'BBB+', respectively. The agency has simultaneously affirmed Bahrain's Country Ceiling at 'BBB+' and Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F3'."



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Ukraine in talks with creditors on possible debt restructure- IIF | Reuters

Ukraine in talks with creditors on possible debt restructure- IIF | Reuters:



Ukraine is holding talks with creditors on restructuring its foreign currency debts, an official from an international finance association said on Thursday following recent meetings with Ukrainian officials.



Lubomir Mitov, an economist with the Institute of International Finance, said that while Ukraine's finances were precarious, it was too soon to say whether it would need to change the terms of its debt.



Mitov said Ukrainian officials stressed they would avoid forcing any so-called haircuts on bondholders in a restructuring."



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Oil markets unmoved by Iraq - YouTube

Oil markets unmoved by Iraq - YouTube: ""



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Yellen reassures markets, again - YouTube

Yellen reassures markets, again - YouTube: ""



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Oil hits nine-month high near $115 on Iraq | GulfNews.com

Oil hits nine-month high near $115 on Iraq | GulfNews.com:



"Brent crude hit a nine-month high near $115 a barrel on Thursday on concerns heavy fighting in Iraq could limit oil supply from OPEC’s second-biggest producer.



Brent was up 50 cents at $114.76 a barrel by 1330 GMT, after reaching an intraday peak of $114.84, its highest since Sept. 9.



Government forces battled Sunni militants for control of Iraq’s biggest refinery as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki waited for a US response to an appeal for air strikes to beat back the threat to Baghdad."



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Ukraine Bonds Gain With Currency as Poroshenko Plans Peace Talks - Bloomberg

Ukraine Bonds Gain With Currency as Poroshenko Plans Peace Talks - Bloomberg:



"Ukrainian bonds gained for a second day and the currency ended a six-day rout as President Petro Poroshenko prepares to present a cease-fire proposal for the conflict-wracked eastern regions.



The yield on securities maturing in July 2017 dropped 20 basis points to 9.26 percent by 4:36 p.m. in Kiev, building on yesterday’s 72 basis-point decline. The hryvnia strengthened 0.9 percent to 11.8625 per dollar, trimming this quarter’s retreat to 6.3 percent.



Ukraine’s bonds are the worst performing among emerging markets in Europe and Africa since April 1 as turmoil worsened in its eastern regions following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March. Poroshenko will officially present his peace plan for two eastern regions tomorrow, he said on TV Channel 5. The plan has 14 steps, including a limited cease-fire and an amnesty for pro-Russian separatists who lay down their arms."



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