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Friday, 11 July 2014

Privatisation ahead! | Odessablog's Blog #Ukraine ht @odessablogger

Privatisation ahead! | Odessablog's Blog:



"Next week sees a list a State owned enterprises being listed for privatisation in Ukraine – and not before time.



Whilst not quite privatisation with regard to Naftogaz Ukrainey, the RADA did manage last week to pass a vote allowing the behemoth’s dismemberment that provided for US and/or European investment and ownership of 49% of the Gas Transport System, whilst simultaneously making compliance with the EU’s third energy package a realistic proposition.  Russia was excluded from investing in the GTS.



Which State owned enterprises are on the list for privatisation is not known in its entirety at the time of writing – although Ukrspirt is certainly amongst them."



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EconoMonitor : The Kapali Carsi » A tale of two Turkeys

EconoMonitor : The Kapali Carsi » A tale of two Turkeys:

You probably often see very conflicting views of the Turkish economy. If you are sick of my gloomy writings (hey, it is called the dismal science), there are plenty of columns and research reports painting a rosy view of the Turkish economy. So how can we reconcile these different assessments?
Well, the easiest way out is to argue that those writing the positive commentaries don’t know what they are talking about:) (I guess you could make the same argument for those with negative views, but I’ll be a little bit subjective for now). Some indeed don’t, and others have simply too much to gain from supporting the government’s economic policies- or too much to lose from criticizing them!:) But many positive assessments do indeed have valid points. As I argue in my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, it depends on which aspect of the economy you are looking at- and depending on that, the glass could seem half empty or half full:
I had other examples of conflicting views of the Turkish economy, but as usual I ran out of space. Here a few more, which you can go through after reading the column:
Turkey has quite a few number of dollar billionaires on Fortune’s annual list, at least when normalized to its GDP. However, have a look Forbes Global 500 list: How many Turkish companies do you see? Just one!
The highlight of the OECD’s fresh-out-of-the-oven report on the Turkish economy is, IMHO, the difference in productivity between large and small firms in Turkey. In fact, as they show in the report, their ratio is one of the highest in the world. So how do these small firms survive? By going informal: Not paying taxes, social security premiums, etc. This explains the skills/education differences between workers in large and small firms as well.
Last but not the least, the OECD report notes the decline in poverty and inequality in Turkey during the last decade, especially in a time when they were rising across the world. This is good news, even notwithstanding the fact that the fall in poverty and inequality has come to a halt in the last few years. But more importantly, as I discussed in a recent column, two out of three of Turkey’s children are under sever material deprivation:(
Changing gears, I also wanted to clarify a couple of things in the column: First, with regards to growth, all emerging markets benefited from the global liquidity flush, which was the main driver of Turkey’s “growth miracle”. Second, I mentioned the low interest rate as the factor that caused private debt to surge, but to be fair, it wasn’t the only factor: The macroeconomic stability and rising incomes in dollar terms because of the appreciating lira also caused debt to increase during the first few years of the AKP’s rule. More recently, the Central Bank’s de facto fixing of the exchange rate caused companies to increase their FX borrowing
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Dubai’s Axiom Telecom Says It May Revive IPO After Cancellation - Bloomberg

Dubai’s Axiom Telecom Says It May Revive IPO After Cancellation - Bloomberg:



"Axiom Ltd., the Dubai-based mobile-phone retailer which abandoned an initial public offering four years ago, said it may revive plans for the sale.



“An IPO isn’t off the table,” Chief Executive Officer Faisal Al Bannai said in a phone interview yesterday from Dubai. “We’re keeping our options open. We’re making sure that all of our paperwork and documents are up to date so we’d be ready to go for an IPO at any time if we wanted to.”



Dubai Holding’s unit Emirates International Telecommunications LLC (EIT) which has a 26 percent stake in Axiom, had hired Citigroup Inc. (C) last year to find potential buyers for the stake, two people familiar with the matter said. The company was planning to raise as much as $300 million from the disposal though an agreement was never reached, the people said, asking not to be identified as talks weren’t public."



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Total - still upbeat on Russia - YouTube

Total - still upbeat on Russia - YouTube: ""



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Russia eases requirements for Visa and MasterCard | Russia Beyond The Headlines

Russia eases requirements for Visa and MasterCard | Russia Beyond The Headlines:



"The Russian Ministry of Finance has submitted a new document to the government establishing the description of payment systems “of national importance”, which makes it technically possible for Visa and MasterCard to obtain this status. All other payment systems without the status of “of national importance” must make security contributions amounting to two days’ worth of transactions in case there is a termination of payments.



The reason for the introduction of such measures was the decision by Visa and MasterCard to terminate services for bank cards issued by banks affiliated with those on the U.S. sanctions list. According to information provided by the Russian newspaper Kommersant, the new version of the Ministry of Finance document features a number of significant amendments: The chips on cards no longer need to be Russian and software may also be bought from the Russian “affiliates” of foreign manufactures.



“At the moment, normal negotiations are taking place over the conditions of further cooperation between international payment systems (IPS), the state, and banks, while new risks are being taken into account,” explains Yury Bozhor, head of the Plastic Cards Department at Russia’s Otkrytie Bank."



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Who's the fairest index of all? - YouTube

Who's the fairest index of all? - YouTube: ""



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Dubai stocks are hardly a bargain, according to analysts | The National

Dubai stocks are hardly a bargain, according to analysts | The National:



"Dubai stocks are still not cheap, despite last month’s massive sell-down, say analysts.



While the rout brought the valuations of listed companies closer to regional peers, they are still far higher than emerging market averages.



“We’re at sensible prices, they’re not at a bargain,” said Saleem Khokhar, the head of equities at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. “You have to pick and choose now, whereas before you could buy across the board.”"



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London Seeks New Spenders as Russians Skip $719 Champagne - Bloomberg

London Seeks New Spenders as Russians Skip $719 Champagne - Bloomberg:



"To gauge London’s place in the global economy, you could examine World Bank statistics, canvass investors and analyze trade volumes. Or you could visit Mahiki, a Polynesian-themed nightclub in upmarket Mayfair where a bottle of Cristal Champagne goes for $719 -- and Russian customers are being supplanted by revelers from countries including China and Nigeria.



“We’re seeing a lot less Russian surnames on the booking sheet,” said Michael Evans, the creative director of the club, where the likes of Rihanna and Prince Harry have been spotted after dark. “It’s very easy to see what’s going on in the world from the markets we attract.”



With tensions continuing in Ukraine and President Vladimir Putin pushing to reduce reliance on the West, wealthy Russians are buying fewer high-end goods from furs to Ferraris, and doing less business with the city’s law firms and investment banks. That leaves London, uniquely connected to faraway, fast-growing economies, looking for new patrons, with China and sub-Saharan African countries pitched as possible successors."



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Sanctions Vows Against Russia Called a Paper Tiger - Bloomberg

Sanctions Vows Against Russia Called a Paper Tiger - Bloomberg:



"Four months after Vladimir Putin’s government annexed Crimea, the U.S. and European Union have failed to deliver on threats to cripple Russia’s economy, penalizing fewer than 100 people and companies.



The U.S. has drawn up proposals to deny Russia access to debt markets and to technology with both civilian and military uses, and the EU is weighing similar steps, according to more than a dozen U.S. and European diplomats who asked not to be named discussing internal deliberations. Yet there’s no plan to impose the measures.



The inaction over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine stems from divisions among the 28 members of the EU, a gap between the U.S. and Europe over how to proceed, and disagreements within President Barack Obama’s administration over moving forward without the Europeans."



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Prepare for Oil to Keep Falling on Libya to U.S. Supply - Bloomberg

Prepare for Oil to Keep Falling on Libya to U.S. Supply - Bloomberg:



"New U.S. pipelines and a revival in Libyan supply are increasing the likelihood that oil prices will slump through year-end after climbing in the first six months. 




Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg predict West Texas Intermediate oil will average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter, down 5.1 percent from June 30, while Brent drops 4.8 percent to $107. Violence in Iraq sent Brent to $115.71 in June, its highest level since September, on concern supplies would be disrupted. 




Brent is poised to decline in part on increased output in Libya as key export terminals were reopened. In the U.S., traders are focused on supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract. Tallgrass Energy Partners LP plans to complete the conversion of the Pony Express pipeline to carry crude to Cushing from Wyoming. Enbridge Inc.’s Flanagan South will connect to the hub from Illinois."



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Iraq Rattles Bondholders as Dana Gas to Taqa Yields Rise - Bloomberg

Iraq Rattles Bondholders as Dana Gas to Taqa Yields Rise - Bloomberg:



"Bondholders in Persian Gulf energy companies with oil and gas production in Iraq are succumbing to concern that the conflict wracking the nation since June risks disrupting operations in OPEC’s second-biggest member.



Yields on the debt of Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (TAQA) and Dana Gas PJSC, United Arab Emirates-based companies active in Iraq, have risen since June 9, a day before Islamist militants seized the country’s second-largest city, Mosul. The spread for Middle East sovereign debt to U.S. Treasuries surged last month and widened to an eight-month high relative to an emerging-market index, according to JP Morgan Chase & Co. data.



Dana Gas and the Abu Dhabi-based utility known as Taqa have so far escaped disruptions in Iraq because they operate in the country’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, which has remained outside the main area of hostilities between government forces and an al-Qaeda offshoot called Islamic State. Militants control territory from the Syrian border in the west to Kurdish positions in the northeast and are battling efforts by the army to recapture towns it abandoned earlier to the insurgents."



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Mubadala Fund, Tabreed Buy Cooling Concession for $285 Million - Bloomberg

Mubadala Fund, Tabreed Buy Cooling Concession for $285 Million - Bloomberg:



"A group including Mubadala Infrastructure Partners and National Central Cooling Co. (TABREED) acquired a concession to provide cooling services to developments on Abu Dhabi’s Al Maryah Island for $285 million.



Mubadala Infrastructure Partners, an independent Mubadala-linked infrastructure fund with institutional investors from the Gulf region and Asia, and National Central Cooling, known as Tabreed, will take over the existing district cooling provider as part of the 30-year deal, according to an e-mailed statement today from Tabreed.



The transaction will be funded through a combination of equity and a 20-year non-recourse senior loan provided by First Gulf Bank PJSC (FGB), it said."



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