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Monday, 22 December 2014

Bear-to-Bull Lurch Nothing New in Dubai Amid Record Stock Swings - Bloomberg

Bear-to-Bull Lurch Nothing New in Dubai Amid Record Stock Swings - Bloomberg:



"In July, Dubai’s benchmark stock index jumped 21 percent in about two weeks, an advance that qualified it as a bull market. This month, after a brush with a bear market, it repeated the feat in two days.



The turnaround is testament to a market in which volatility is fueled by fluctuations in oil prices and attempts by banks and brokerages to offload stocks to pay back some borrowed money that was used to buy them, according to Abu Dhabi-based Nabil Rantisi, managing director of Mena Corp. Financial Services. Dubai’s DFM General Index soared 24 percent in the past two days, more than double the gain in stocks in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter.



“It’s a roller-coaster ride which we haven’t seen since the second half of 2008,” Rantisi said by phone. “It’s not a market for guys with weak hearts. You really require courage to be in this market at this time and make the right decisions.”"



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Emerging markets outlook for 2015 - YouTube

Emerging markets outlook for 2015 - YouTube: ""



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Active managers' terrible year - YouTube

Active managers' terrible year - YouTube: ""



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Russia will not get a second miracle out of this oil slump | The National

Russia will not get a second miracle out of this oil slump | The National:



"Russia seems to experience an oil-triggered economic crisis every decade or so. The 1986 price slump led to the fall of the USSR, US$10 per barrel oil in 1998 derailed the tentative post-Soviet recovery and brought the unknown Vladimir Putin to prominence, while Russia scraped through the short price slump following the 2008-9 recession.



This year, both the oil price and the rouble have beaten Mr Putin to 63 – his birthday is next October, while Brent crude was $60.70 per barrel on Friday and the rouble touched lows of 77 to the dollar on December 16.



It is worth recalling what happened after 1998. The Russian economy rebounded surprisingly quickly. Elected president in 2000, Mr Putin initially followed a prudent and orthodox macroeconomic policy, improved tax collection and accumulated “rainy day” savings. Helped by rising oil prices and lower domestic costs because of the weaker rouble, the oil industry revived and grew strongly up to 2004. Apart from 2008’s economic crisis, production has increased every year since 1999."



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Dubai index choppy after rebound | GulfNews.com

Dubai index choppy after rebound | GulfNews.com:



"The Dubai index was choppy in early trade on Monday even as recovering crude post the positive comments from Saudi Arabia and Qatar limited the downside.



The Dubai Financial Market General Index was up 0.04 per cent at 3,766.91, after moving in the tight range of 3,719.16 - 3,823.75. The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange general index was down 0.20 per cent at 4,507.74.



Oil rose as much as 2 per cent for a second day, extending the biggest rally since October 2012 after Saudi Arabia said it was confident that crude will rebound as world economic growth boosts demand. A global glut that has driven prices lower was created by a lack of cooperation from producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi."



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Bahrain Sukuk Mauled as Oil Drop Imperils Plans: Islamic Finance - Bloomberg

Bahrain Sukuk Mauled as Oil Drop Imperils Plans: Islamic Finance - Bloomberg:



"Tumbling oil prices are battering Bahrain’s Shariah-compliant bonds.



The Gulf nation’s dollar-denominated sukuk that mature in 2018 have dropped 1.3 percent since the end of September, compared with an average 0.8 percent gain for more than 30 Islamic sovereign dollar bonds tracked by Bloomberg. Only the five-year $1 billion sukuk issued by Pakistan, where Islamic militants have killed more than 50,000 people since 2001, have performed worse.



The decline underscores how oil’s 45 percent slide since last year is hurting a country where Standard & Poor’s estimates crude accounts for 65 percent of fiscal revenue and yet has oil reserves that are less than 0.1 percent of neighboring Saudi Arabia’s. The retreat threatens to jeopardize some of the $30 billion of infrastructure projects the government is planning to sustain economic growth and becalm protests by the majority Shiite population, according to Commerzbank AG."



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Age of Plenty Seen Over for Gulf Arabs as Oil Tumbles - Bloomberg

Age of Plenty Seen Over for Gulf Arabs as Oil Tumbles - Bloomberg:



"The boom that adorned Gulf Arab monarchies with glittering towers, swelled their sovereign funds and kept unrest largely at bay may be over after oil prices dropped by almost 50 percent in the last six months.



The sheikhdoms have used the oil wealth to remake their region. Landmarks include man-made islands on reclaimed land, as well as financial centers, airports and ports that turned the Arabian desert into a banking and travel hub. The money was also deployed to ward off social unrest that spread through the Middle East during the Arab Spring.



“The region has had 10 years of abundance,” said Simon Williams, HSBC Holdings Plc’s chief economist for central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. “But that decade of plenty is done. The drop in oil prices will hurt performance in the near term, even if the Gulf’s buffers are powerful enough to ensure there’s no crisis.”"



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Saudi Arabia Confident in Oil Rebounding on Global Growth - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Confident in Oil Rebounding on Global Growth - Bloomberg:



"Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is confident that crude prices will rebound with global economic growth boosting demand.



Prices will recover from a slump due to a glut created by a lack of cooperation from producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said at a conference in Abu Dhabi yesterday. Al-Naimi ended his speech showing the confidence as he jumped off the stage and smiled.



Brent oil tumbled into a bear market this year as the U.S. pumped the most crude in more than three decades and economic growth slowed from China to Germany. The increase in global crude demand was about 700,000 barrels a day this year, below the projected 1.2 million barrels a day, Al-Naimi said."



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