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Sunday, 7 February 2016

More than half of UAE consumers think they are in recession |

More than half of UAE consumers think they are in recession |

"It's been about seven years since the global financial crisis, but UAE consumers are still worried about the economy’s staying power.

In its latest consumer confidence index, market research firm Nielsen said that 53 per cent of residents polled in the fourth quarter of 2015 believed that they were in recession.

The number of people expressing recessionary sentiment, representing 4.9 million of the UAE’s nearly 10 million population, registered a ten-percentage-point increase from the previous quarter."

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Saudi, Venezuela talk of OPEC, non-OPEC cooperation to stabilize oil market: SPA | Reuters

Saudi, Venezuela talk of OPEC, non-OPEC cooperation to stabilize oil market: SPA | Reuters:

"Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi discussed cooperation between OPEC members and other oil producers to stabilize the global oil market with his Venezuelan counterpart on Sunday, state news agency SPA reported.

Venezuela's Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino, who is on a tour of oil producers to lobby for action to prop up prices, said his meeting with Naimi was "productive", his ministry reported.

Cash-strapped OPEC member Venezuela has been calling for an emergency meeting of producers to discuss steps to prop up prices, which are close to their lowest since 2003."

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China foreign exchange reserves hit more than 3-year low -

China foreign exchange reserves hit more than 3-year low -

"China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped by nearly $100bn last month to the lowest level since May 2012 as Beijing continued to sell dollars to support its currency and stem capital outflows.
Fears about the slowing economy and slumping asset prices have prompted investors to shift capital out of the renminbi by buying dollar-denominated assets both at home and overseas."

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Gmail - Iran Weekly Market Report - 4 February 2016

Gmail - Iran Weekly Market Report - 4 February 2016:


The Tehran Stock Exchange experienced increasing share prices for the sixth consecu­tive week. The TSE All-Share Index continued its recent uptrend, closing at 73,684, 3.76% higher than the week before. The TSE’s main index had closed at 73,725 on Tuesday, but a negative performance on Wednesday undid 0.11% of the weekly gain. This week the TEDPIX experienced slower growth, with a particularly weak performance on Sunday (-0.39%). The Banks sector (-2.33%) had a significant negative effect on the main index. The Automotive (+3.7%) sector’s weekly growth rate fell as well. Over the last few weeks the Banks and Automotive sectors have been recording the highest trade volume measures of any sectors. The Automotive sector’s index rose only by 3.7% this week, while its average weekly return in the prior four weeks had been 11.8%. Oil Prod­ucts, Metallic Ore and Base Metals recorded the highest weekly gains with 14.4%, 11% and 10.5% respectively.


From a technical analysis perspective, the TSE All-Share Index is already higher than its 50 day EMA by around 12%, though its pace of growth declined before surpassing minor resistance at 71,500. The majority of technical analysis indicators continue to indicate an upward trend for the moment. The main resistance level stands at 76,500, though minor challenges are expected before reaching 75,000. During the last three weeks the trade volume in the market has risen significantly (by c.130%), supporting the index positive trend.


The index of the thirty largest companies by market capitalization, the TSE30 index, also continued to rise, increasing by 2.69% to close at 3,117. It is the first time in five weeks that the TSE30 index has recorded a lower gain than the TSE All-Share Index. This week, Chadormalu Mining Industrial Co. (CHML +16.6%) recorded the highest gain among the top 30s, while Bank Melli Investment Co. (BANK -6.7%) had the weakest per­formance. The list of shares on the TSE30 index has also been updated; Jam Petro­chemical (PJMZ +7.8%) Mobin Petrochemical (MOBN +3.2%) and Shazand Petrochemical Company (PARK –1.0%) have entered the top 30s, while SAIPA Group (SIPA +8.2%), Tamin Petroleum & Petrochemical Investment Co. (PTAP +3.5%) and Behran Oil Refining Co. (NBEH +7.8%) have been dropped from the index.


The Average Daily Trade Volume (ADTV) of the market reached USD 114 million, almost 22% lower than the previous week. SAIPA Group, MAPNA Group (MAPN +9.68%) and Pars Khodro (PKOD -4.12%) recorded the highest traded values this week, recording USD 34.8 million, USD 27.7 million and USD 23.4 million worth of trades respectively.


The FX Market witnessed a stronger free market rate by the US Dollar, reaching 36,016, 0.42% higher than the previous week. However, the Central Bank of Iran changed the official US Dollar rate by -0.01% to IRR 30,181. The CBI increased the official Euro rate by 1.76% to IRR 33,453, while the free market rate of EURIRR dropped 0.34% to IRR 39,827. Similarly the official rate of the British Pound Sterling was increased by the CBI to 43,991, 2.31% higher than last week. However, the free market rate of GBPIRR de­creased by 2.86% to IRR 50,270.


Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, finished his first official trip to Europe this week by signing contracts worth billions of dollars. Mr. Rouhani met the Italian prime minister and the French president during his European tour. In Italy, 14 deals were signed with a total worth of USD 18.4 billion, including memorandum of understandings with Saipem over two projects. One deal, worth USD 3.7 billion, will see Saipem participate in the renova­tion and development of the Pars Shiraz and Tabirz oil refineries. It is also reported that Saipem will cooperate with Iran’s government to construct a 1800km gas pipeline. The Iranian media has estimated the worth of this deal to be around USD 4-5 billion. In anoth­er development, Iran has ordered 118 commercial passenger airplanes from Airbus dur­ing President Rouhani’s visit to France with an estimated cost of USD 25 billion. Bouy­gues Industrial Group and Aeroports, the French airport authority, will also cooperate with Iran to construct the second terminal of Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA). In October 2015, Bloomberg quoted IKIA officials stating their target to host 20 million passengers per year, by implementing a development plan. Hassan Rouhani’s trip to France was also followed by the signing of a framework agreement with Total to deliv­er 150,000-200,000 bpd of Iranian crude oil to European refineries. A deal with Peugeot Citroen was also signed to create a joint venture with Iran Khodro, the Middle East’s larg­est auto maker. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that it would be a 50/50 partner­ship to produce 200,000 Peugeot cars per year from 2017. The estimated investment for this project is USD 430 million."

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President Obama proposes new US oil tax | FT World - YouTube

President Obama proposes new US oil tax | FT World - YouTube: ""

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MIDEAST STOCKS-Major bourses dragged lower by weaker oil, global equities | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Major bourses dragged lower by weaker oil, global equities | Reuters:

"Major stock markets in the Middle East fell on Sunday after oil prices pulled back and global bourses sold off at the end of last week.

The correlation between oil prices and Gulf equity markets has strengthened in recent months with many investors believing markets will continue to trade in almost lockstep with crude prices in the near term.

In Riyadh, the index dropped 1.3 percent to 5,896 points, erasing Thursday's 0.8 percent gain. The petrochemical sector was one of the main drags with Saudi Basic Industries and Saudi Arabia Fertilizers, the two largest petrochemical producers by market value, falling 1.1 and 0.7 percent respectively."

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S&P affirms Abu Dhabi’s credit rating | The National

S&P affirms Abu Dhabi’s credit rating | The National:

"The low price of oil is expected to worsen Abu Dhabi’s balance sheet over the coming months, Standard & Poor’s has warned, but the emirate’s cash piles will continue to support the economy.

Maintaining the emirate’s long-term debt rating at AA, a notch below its highest AAA rating, the credit ratings agency calculated in a report released late on Friday that Abu Dhabi’s budget would run at a deficit of about 5 per cent of the emirate’s GDP between this year and 2019.

That is bigger than S&P’s previous estimate for the period of a shortfall of about 1 per cent of GDP, and well below its expectations before that of a 2 per cent surplus."

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Regional cash-flow crisis looms, warn turnaround firms | The National

Regional cash-flow crisis looms, warn turnaround firms | The National:

"Turnaround specialists have warned that regional companies face a looming cash-flow crisis as banks pull back from lending amid US$30 oil.

Lenders are reporting a sharp rise in non-performing loans that started among smaller companies and is extending to larger corporates as firms seek to conserve cash and governments face funding pressures because of the weak oil price.

“When banks ask companies to repay their short-term debt and companies aren’t able to find additional funding, this will be the moment where some sort of crisis will happen,” said Eugenio Berenga, the managing director of AlixPartners in Dubai. “The larger ones are already thinking about which costs they can reduce and work from a lower cost base. This is already happening quietly.”"

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Qatar’s liquidity woes, higher risks to weigh on loan growth |

Qatar’s liquidity woes, higher risks to weigh on loan growth |

"Qatari banks is expected to see moderate loans growth over the next 18-24 months, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P).

The banking system’s loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 116.8 per cent as of November 30, 2015, up from 103.4 per cent a year earlier as lending continued to grow faster than deposits.

“Given our expectations for continued slow deposit growth and the banking sector’s already high loan-to-deposit ratio, we anticipate that banks will manage credit growth more conservatively,” said S&P credit analyst Nadim Amatouri.


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MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi, Egypt edge down in early trade after oil weakens | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi, Egypt edge down in early trade after oil weakens | Reuters:

"Stock markets in Saudi Arabia and Egypt slipped in early trade on Sunday, erasing some of their gains in the previous session after oil prices reversed and global markets sold off at the end of last week.

In Riyadh, the index slid 0.5 percent in thin trade, dragged down by the petrochemical sector. Saudi Arabia Fertilizer (SAFCO) and Yanbu National Petrochemical were each down more than 1.5 percent.

But some shares were faring better because of positive corporate actions. Saudi Cement rose 2.0 percent after the company recommended a dividend distribution of 3.00 riyals per share for the second half of 2015, versus a proposed dividend of 2.5 riyals a year earlier."

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MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf bourses fall as oil, global markets weigh | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf bourses fall as oil, global markets weigh | Reuters:

"Bourses in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar fell in early trade on Sunday after oil prices dropped back and global bourses tumbled.

Abu Dhabi's index traded down 0.6 percent, erasing some of Thursday's 2.1 percent gain. Dana Gas, a natural gas explorer, fell 2.2 percent after adding 4.7 percent in the previous session.

The banking sector was a mixed bag with First Gulf Bank retreating 0.9 percent but Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank adding 1.4 percent."

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North Sea could lose 150 platforms within 10 years - BBC News

North Sea could lose 150 platforms within 10 years - BBC News:

"Nearly 150 oil platforms in the UK North Sea are expected to be scrapped over the next 10 years, according to industry analysts.
Of all the decommissioning over the next 25 years, more than half is likely to take place between 2019 and 2026.
The estimate, from Douglas-Westwood, takes account of the fall in the price of oil."

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