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Thursday, 15 September 2016

Goldman’s Currie sees oil staying below $50 as surplus lingers | GulfNews.com

Goldman’s Currie sees oil staying below $50 as surplus lingers | GulfNews.com:

"Don’t count on a big rally in crude oil, said Jeff Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Or any rally, for that matter.

Two years into an oil rout that saw West Texas Intermediate oil fall to about $26 (Dh95) a barrel in February, the risk is “to the downside” because there aren’t any clear catalysts to push up prices, Currie said in an interview in Lake Louise, Alberta. For the next 12 months, he said, oil is likely to trade in the $45-$50 range.

In May, Goldman cut its 2017 forecast for oil prices to $53 a barrel from $58 as producers became more efficient and Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran boosted output more than expected. A “modest” supply deficit in the market is forecast to turn to a surplus early next year, Currie said Wednesday."



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Active managers exposed as most US equity funds lag behind market - FT.com

Active managers exposed as most US equity funds lag behind market - FT.com:

"Nine out of ten US equity funds failed to beat the market over the past year, according to a new study that undermines active managers’ claims that they can outperform in more volatile markets.
The semi-annual report on fund manager returns, produced by S&P Global, has long been depressing reading for professional stockpickers, but the scale of the disappointment in the latest figures is likely to fuel further outflows from an industry that is already under pressure."



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MIDEAST STOCKS-Markets fall on oil, track global trend | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Markets fall on oil, track global trend | Reuters:

"Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates fell on Thursday as they reopened after the long Eid al-Adha holidays, while Egypt continued sliding amid more bad news about the economy.

Brent crude oil fell about 3 percent for a second straight day on Wednesday to around $46 a barrel.

While UAE bourses were closed from Sunday to Wednesday, MSCI's emerging market equity index dropped 4.6 percent. That left few positives for UAE investors as they returned on Thursday and Dubai's main index fell 1.1 percent."



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Investment binge threatens a hangover for the oil price - FT.com

Investment binge threatens a hangover for the oil price - FT.com:

"For those who believe the oil market will eventually confront a supply crunch because of the unprecedented collapse in capital expenditure over the past two years the International Energy Agency’s investment report provides plenty of ammunition.
“There is evidence that cuts in exploration activities have already resulted in a dramatic decline in new oil discoveries, dropping to levels not seen in the last 60 years” according to the report which this week detailed the decline in investment in oil and gas projects since 2014.
And there is more good news for the oil bulls."



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Kuwait’s outlook robust on strong public spending and fiscal buffers | GulfNews.com

Kuwait’s outlook robust on strong public spending and fiscal buffers | GulfNews.com:

"Despite the lower oil-price environment Kuwait’s economic outlook remains strong on high public spending and stable fiscal buffers, according to a report from Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank’s (ADCB) economic research team.
“We expect an acceleration in real non-oil GDP [gross domestic product] growth in 2016 and 2017 to above 3 per cent from 1.3 per cent in 2015 as the investment programme continues to gain momentum. Project awards have remained strong in 2016, despite the lower oil price, and the pace of project implementation has picked up,” said Monica Malik, Chief Economist of ADCB.
"



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MIDEAST STOCKS-UAE bourses fall in thin, early trade; GFH rises | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-UAE bourses fall in thin, early trade; GFH rises | Reuters:

"United Arab Emirates stock markets fell in thin early trade on Thursday as they reopened after long Eid al-Adha holidays.

During the time the bourses were closed between Sunday and Wednesday, oil prices and global equities dropped steeply, leaving few positive incentives for Gulf investors.

Many investors remained on holiday on Thursday, the last day of the working week, and will only return to the markets next Sunday, when other major Gulf bourses will reopen after Eid."



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