Google+ Followers

Monday, 2 January 2017

2017 in a minute: emerging markets

2017 in a minute: bonds

An optimist’s view of 2017

An optimist’s view of 2017:
"The downbeat mood of the times was confirmed before Christmas by the publication of the Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide to 2017. The guide lists some of the things that could go badly wrong across the world in 2017. Last year the Guide predicted both Brexit and Donald Trump’s election as US president. This year the possibilities range from the collapse of the Mexican economy after Mr Trump pulls the US out of Nafta to the election of Marine Le Pen as the next president of France. Some of the predictions, such as California’s decision to declare independence from the US (Calexit), to the forced departure of the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could be seen as ambivalent outcomes that many would welcome. Pessimism, however, has its limits and so here, are a few notes of hope for the New Year. As ever, I have focused on the core issues of energy but politics are never far away. Some of the possibilities listed seem to me highly likely to occur to one degree or another. Others are long shots – but then Donald Trump was a long shot a year ago.

1. A relatively peaceful revolution will overthrow the Maduro regime in Venezuela. Recovery will take time but will begin with the reconstitution of the state oil company PDVSA and the renewal of international investment. The new regime will annoy the Chinese by declaring that the deals made between the two countries over the last decade are invalid and will have to be reopened, allowing all-comers to participate in a new tender process.

2. The number of electric vehicles in use worldwide will begin to rise dramatically. From 600,000 in 2016 the number of new vehicles licensed will increase to over 1m in 2017 marking the beginning of a growth that will be compared to the growth in computers and mobile phones in the 1990s. Six of the world’s great cities, including London, Berlin and Beijing, will introduce a mixture of congestion and emissions charges which make electric vehicles the only rational choice for motorists. A new parking charge for vehicles with internal combustion engines will fund a network of charging points in the cities and beyond.

"

'via Blog this'

Adnoc CEO Al Jaber says we are just getting started after steering unprecedented year of change at Abu Dhabi state oil company | The National

Adnoc CEO Al Jaber says we are just getting started after steering unprecedented year of change at Abu Dhabi state oil company | The National:
"After a year of unprecedented shake-up at the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, more change is in store as it aims to get on par with its top private sector industry peers, according to the state oil and gas producer’s chief executive.

Since taking over last February, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also Minister of State and a member of the Supreme Petroleum Council, the emirate’s top oil sector decision-making body, has moved rapidly to implement a level of change rarely seen at such a large energy company, especially one in the state sector.


The collapse in oil prices from late 2014 hit the worldwide oil industry hard and gave renewed impetus for reform, especially at the Arabian Gulf’s state oil companies."

'via Blog this'

Iran certifies 29 international companies to bid for oil, gas projects | Reuters

Iran certifies 29 international companies to bid for oil, gas projects | Reuters:
"Iran has named 29 companies from more than a dozen countries as being allowed to bid for oil and gas projects using the new, less restrictive Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) model, the oil ministry news website SHANA reported on Monday.

The list of pre-qualified firms included Shell, France's Total, Italy's Eni, Malaysia's Petronas and Russia's Gazprom and Lukoil, as well as companies from China, Austria, Japan and other countries.

Iran hopes its new IPC, part of an effort to sweeten the terms it offers on oil development deals, will attract foreign investors and boost production after years of sanctions."

'via Blog this'

Oman introduces set of measures to face sharp decline in revenues | GulfNews.com

Oman introduces set of measures to face sharp decline in revenues | GulfNews.com:
"Oman announced it has introduced a policy of gradual fiscal adjustments aimed at boosting revenues, according to a statement issued by the Ministry of Finance on Sunday.
“The aim of such policy is to minimise [the price of oil’s] impact on economic and social aspects. Therefore, the Government has taken into consideration the importance of maintaining the services provided to the citizens, and preventing economic contraction,” said the statement. Oman, along with many other oil-producing economies, have been looking for ways to increase revenues following the drop in oil prices over the past two years. In June 2014, the price for Brent Crude stood at $115 (Dh422) but has since fallen at low at $28. On Monday, it was trading for $56.82 a barrel. Oil is a major contributor to Oman’s economy, the ministry has said.
The new measure introduced include an amended Income Tax Law that is expected to be issued this year and introducing selective taxes, concurrently with GCC countries, on certain commodities such as tobacco, alcohol and other products. Other changes include new fee for licenses of bringing foreign workers into the country, amended fees for civil services provided by Royal Oman Police (ROP), limiting tax exemptions granted for companies and establishments and enhancing tax collections efficiency, and activating monitoring and follow-up measures."

'via Blog this'

TABLE-Qatar's November bank loan growth slows slightly, money supply shrinks | Reuters

TABLE-Qatar's November bank loan growth slows slightly, money supply shrinks | Reuters:
"Jan 2 Annual bank credit growth in Qatar slowed
slightly in November while M2 money supply shrank for a 10th
straight month, central bank data showed.

QATAR MONEY SUPPLY END-NOV 16 END-OCT 16 END-NOV 15
M1 change yr/yr (pct) -0.3 -2.9 1.9
M2-M1 yr/yr -5.7 -4.5 3.5
M2 change yr/yr -4.4 -4.1 3.1
Total credit yr/yr 10.4 10.6 17.0

QATAR C.BANK NET FOREIGN RESERVES
bln riyals 124.1 124.2 138.7
change yr/yr (pct) -10.5 -12.1 -17.3
NOTE - Percentage changes are calculations by Reuters.
"

'via Blog this'

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf mixed, Oman falls after budget; Egypt edges down | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf mixed, Oman falls after budget; Egypt edges down | Reuters:
"Gulf stock markets were mixed on Monday as most reopened after the New Year, with Oman falling after the release of an austere state budget for 2017. Egypt edged down although foreign investors remained net buyers of stocks.

Dubai's index rose 0.2 percent as much activity focused on speculative stocks with prices below 1 dirham. Islamic Arab Insurance, the most heavily traded stock, rocketed 15 percent in its largest volume since April.

Abu Dhabi fell 0.3 percent, partly due to a 7.6 percent slide in Abu Dhabi National Energy."

'via Blog this'

Saudi cabinet stresses need to implement oil output cut: statement | Reuters

Saudi cabinet stresses need to implement oil output cut: statement | Reuters:
"Saudi Arabia stressed on Monday the importance of co-operation among oil producers to abide by a decision in November to cut production.

OPEC agreed in November its first oil output cuts since 2008 after Saudi Arabia accepted "a big hit" on its production and dropped its demand that arch-rival Iran slash output.

"The council (of ministers)...asserted the importance of stability and coordination and increased cooperation between member states and commitment to implement the agreement to cut production reached last November," the cabinet said in a statement carried by state news agency SPA.

"

'via Blog this'

The National’s business reporters look ahead to what 2017 has in store | The National

The National’s business reporters look ahead to what 2017 has in store | The National:
"Aside from higher oil prices, the prospect of higher US government spending by incoming president Donald Trump has led to rosy predictions for global growth in 2017 by the OECD and others, which should benefit stock markets in the Arabian Gulf countries.

Emirates NBD is forecasting gains of up to 10 per cent for regional shares, excluding dividend gains, with blue chip names like Emaar Properties and Sabic set to attract foreign investors. Still, plenty of clouds remain on the horizon: oil production cuts may not be all they’re cracked up to be; local government spending cuts may yet stifle local economic recovery. And then there’s the ever-present prospect of a left-field 3am tweet from the leader of the free world that should stop investors getting too comfortable.


The Gulf’s stock markets were once again no place for the faint-hearted in 2016. Plunging oil prices and slowing government spending sent regional equities tumbling, hitting a four-year low in the early part of the year. Equities gradually stabilised throughout the year before enjoying a stellar December in the wake of an agreement by Opec and non-Opec members to cut production in order to shore up government revenues. Bloomberg’s GCC 200 Index, which shed 17 per cent in the first three weeks of the year, finished 4.2 per cent higher for the year."

'via Blog this'

Qatari construction firm IHG to list shares in $138 million offer | Reuters

Qatari construction firm IHG to list shares in $138 million offer | Reuters:
"Qatari construction firm Investment Holding Group (IHG) will launch an initial public offer of its shares next week in a boost for the country's stock market, which has seen only two new listings since 2010.

The family-owned contracting and trading business will offer 49.8 million shares, or 60 percent of its capital, at a price of 10.1 riyals per share, the company said in a statement late on Sunday. That would make the value of the offer about 503 million riyals ($138 million).

IHG, a holding company which through its subsidiaries provides contracting, shipping, real estate and education services according to its website, will be the first family business in Qatar to list its shares on the exchange via an IPO, it said.

"

'via Blog this'

TABLE-Saudi Q3 GDP growth down to 0.9 percent, slowest in over three years | Reuters

TABLE-Saudi Q3 GDP growth down to 0.9 percent, slowest in over three years | Reuters:

Jan 2 Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product, adjusted for
inflation, grew 0.9 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter of 2016,
compared to 1.4 percent in the second quarter, data from the Central Department
of Statistics showed.
    It was the slowest growth since 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2013.
        
   SAUDI GDP                         Q3/16   Q2/16   Q1/16   Q4/15   Q3/15  
(constant 2010 prices, pct) (Y/Y)     0.9     1.4     1.5     1.8     4.5    
   Oil sector                         3.6     1.6     5.1     4.5     6.2    
   Non-oil sector                    -0.7     0.4    -0.7    -0.5     2.9    
       
   NOTE. Latest figures are preliminary. Year-earlier figures are revised. Base
year is 2010.



'via Blog this'

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf mixed in early trade, Omani falls after budget | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf mixed in early trade, Omani falls after budget | Reuters:
"Gulf stock markets were mixed in early trade on Monday as most reopened after the New Year, with some investors yet to return from holidays.

Oman fell after authorities announced a tight budget for 2017.

Dubai's index edged up 0.4 percent as much activity focused on speculative stocks including Islamic Arab Insurance , which jumped 14.2 percent and was the most heavily traded issue."

'via Blog this'