Monday 3 December 2018

Why would Doha choose to leave Opec now? - The National

Why would Doha choose to leave Opec now? - The National:

As delegates descend on Vienna, the city of diplomatic intrigue, for Thursday’s Opec meeting, one member is making its last trip. Saad Al Kaabi, Qatar’s minister for energy affairs, announced on Monday that the country would leave the oil exporters’ organisation in January.

Qexit is a surprise, but not a severe blow, after tumultuous change at Opec over the past three years. The big questions are why would Doha choose to leave now? And what does it mean for the group’s future?

Qatar is not a founder member, but it was the first to join the original five of September 1960, entering in 1961. It is the first Middle Eastern member to depart. There are, though, precedents for countries leaving the organisation.

Dubai’s developers find their comfort levels in ready projects

Dubai’s developers find their comfort levels in ready projects:

Developers in Dubai have every reason to be cautious with their offplan forays. In the year to end November, offplan sales are down 27 per cent and with limited opportunities in December to narrow the gap with last year.

But these developers are learning to adjust to such sentiments — some of the big names are taking feelers from potential buyers and, where possible, locking in their interest. This way they do not have to make a great deal of marketing noise or spend heavily on promotions. Instead they are dipping into their buyer databases and uploading eye-catching sales brochures of their latest project.

As soon as they get sufficient sales numbers going on these projects via private sales, they can then make the switch to an official launch and all of the accompanying razzmatazz. But for now, it’s working the phone lines and sending those mails using every possibility in their databases.

QSE benchmark index jumps on historic Opec announcement day - The Peninsula Qatar

QSE benchmark index jumps on historic Opec announcement day - The Peninsula Qatar:

Qatar’s stock market rose sharply yesterday, the day the country made the surprise announcement to quit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). The world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter announced that it would be focusing more on gas.

The QSE benchmark index rose 1.30 percent or 134.37, supported by banks and industrials. Oil prices jumped by more than 5 percent yesterday after the US and China agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade dispute, and ahead of a meeting this week of Opec that is expected to cut supply.

The banking sector rose 1.55 percent with Commercial Bank rising the most by 2.20 percent. QNB gained 1.77 percent as QIB and QIIB added 1.80 percent and 1.56 percent, respectively. Bellwether Industries Qatar (IQ) advanced 1.92 percent. Telecom giant Ooredoo gained 1.81 percent.

Qatar to continue seeking oil deals abroad: Al-Kaabi

Qatar to continue seeking oil deals abroad: Al-Kaabi:

Qatar will continue to produce oil and seek deals in countries including Latin America’s top oil producer Brazil, said HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi.

“We are not saying we are going to get out of the oil business, but gas production would remain Qatar’s top priority,” al-Kaabi said at a press conference yesterday, where he announced Qatar’s decision to withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) in January, 2019. 

“As you all know, Qatar has worked diligently during the past few years to develop a future strategy in the oil and gas sector based on growth and expansion, both in its activities in Qatar and internationally.

Why the Breach Between Saudis, Qataris Goes On and On: QuickTake - Bloomberg

Why the Breach Between Saudis, Qataris Goes On and On: QuickTake - Bloomberg:

When four Arab states led by Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties and transportation links with Qatar in June 2017, there were expectations that the rulers would resolve the spat quietly among themselves, as they did a similar dispute three years earlier. Instead, Saudi Arabia issued tough demands, Qatar refused to kowtow to its powerful Arab neighbor, and the breach hardened. Now, Qatar has said it will leave OPEC in the new year in a rare rupture of the Saudi-dominated oil cartel.

1. What’s the meaning of Qatar quitting OPEC? 

Qatar says it’s leaving to focus on production of liquefied natural gas, a much bigger market for the country than oil. Qatar is the world’s largest exporter of LNG and accounts for less than 2 percent of OPEC’s output. Despite the official explanation, Qatar’s move was widely seen as resulting from its feud with Saudi Arabia and its allies.

#Qatar Leaving OPEC Is An Ominous Sign For OPEC - Bloomberg

Qatar Leaving OPEC Is An Ominous Sign For OPEC - Bloomberg:

The immediate question raised by Qatar leaving OPEC is, of course, what to call this? Qatarexit, or even Qatexit, sound wrong. Qatar-ta-for-now has a nice ring to it, even if it’s a tad unwieldy. Maybe just go with Qatout.

While that one is a little aggressive, it at least conveys one of the factors likely behind the move. Saudi Arabia has been gunning for Qatar, launching a blockade last year aimed at bringing the Gulf state to heel on issues such as its relations with Iran. With OPEC’s de facto leader having pushed Qatar out into the cold already, the diplomatic benefits of membership can hardly seem that compelling in Doha.

In purely mathematical terms, Qatar’s decision to leave makes little difference: It accounts for less than 2 percent of OPEC’s crude oil output. The country’s clout in energy markets stems from something outside of OPEC’s purview, namely Qatar’s status as the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Yet the symbolism of a long-standing, Middle Eastern member leaving is inescapable.

Iran Warns Oil Will Slump to $40 If OPEC Fails to Cut Production - Bloomberg

Iran Warns Oil Will Slump to $40 If OPEC Fails to Cut Production - Bloomberg:

Oil prices will slump to $40 a barrel unless OPEC and its allies cut output significantly, and the group is unlikely to succeed in reviving the market, an Iranian official said.

Production will need to be reduced by at least 1.4 million barrels a day to prevent oversupply, Iranian OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili said in an interview. While the Islamic Republic itself won’t participate in any cuts while U.S. sanctions on its exports remain in place, Kazempour said the group may be unable to reach an agreement to curb supply when it meets in Vienna later this week.

The comments show the divisions within OPEC as it seeks consensus on next year’s supply policy, with crude having slumped into a bear market last month. While Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue managing the market, Qatar in a surprise move on Monday said it will exit the producers’ cartel in 2019, threatening its cohesion. OPEC decisions need to be unanimous to be implemented.

Qatar's Departure From OPEC Suggests Gulf Rift Is Here to Stay - Bloomberg

Qatar's Departure From OPEC Suggests Gulf Rift Is Here to Stay - Bloomberg:

The campaign to isolate Qatar, launched 18 months ago by Saudi Arabia and three other Arab nations, may have peaked with a tweet in August.

That’s when Saud al-Qahtani, a top aide to Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told his 1.36 million followers that he was “waiting eagerly” for news on a 40-mile canal construction project which would turn Qatar into an island and place a radioactive waste dump on its border, changing the geopolitical map of the Gulf forever.

Nothing has been heard since of the project, which was never officially confirmed, and al-Qahtani was demoted in the wake of the Oct. 2 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Yet Monday’s announcement by Qatar that it will leave the Saudi-dominated Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, on Jan. 1 suggests that the proposal’s underlying threat -- of a permanent rift in the Gulf -- is happening anyhow.

Double trouble: #UAE real estate firms defenceless against oversupply and interest rates | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Double trouble: UAE real estate firms defenceless against oversupply and interest rates | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The United Arab Emirates’ real estate market has been experiencing an oversupply of units across all real estate categories, ranging from residential to commercial. Over a span of two years, property prices have plummeted, weighing on developers’ profit margins and squeezing their cash flows.

Initially, lower margins were considered the cost of doing business in a saturated market whilst attempting to maintain market share. However, as interest margins contracted, global macros took another swing at property developers through the steady, but sharp, climb in interest rates, making borrowing costs significantly higher.

“Pure-play” developers have managed to manoeuvre through lower margins and oversupply by ramping up credit sales in attempt to secure future cash flows and reduce their exposure to the realty market by reducing inventory and focusing on receivables.

Saudi's AHAB turns to new bankruptcy law to settle with creditors | Reuters

Saudi's AHAB turns to new bankruptcy law to settle with creditors | Reuters:

Conglomerate Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi and Brothers (AHAB) has become the first company to file for a settlement under Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, seeking to resolve the kingdom’s longest-running and largest debt dispute.

The company hopes the move will help to bring a conclusion to creditor talks that have rumbled on since AHAB and Saad Group defaulted on about $22 billion of debt in 2009.

The law, which came into effect in August 2018, is the latest of the kingdom’s reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and reducing the economy’s dependence on oil.

Oil surges almost 4 percent on trade truce, expected supply cuts | Reuters

Oil surges almost 4 percent on trade truce, expected supply cuts | Reuters:

Oil prices jumped nearly four percent on Monday after the United States and China agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade dispute and Canada’s Alberta province ordered a production cut, while exporter group OPEC looked set to reduce supply. 

Brent crude futures rose $2.23 to settle at $61.69 a barrel, a 3.75 percent gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $2.02 to settle at $52.95 a barrel, a 3.97 percent increase.

Both benchmarks surged more than 5 percent earlier in the session.

#UAE says #Qatar's decision to leave OPEC admission of decline of Doha's role | Reuters

UAE says Qatar's decision to leave OPEC admission of decline of Doha's role | Reuters:

The United Arab Emirates said on Monday Doha’s decision to leave OPEC was a reflection of the decline of its influence.

“The political aspect of Qatar’s decision to quit OPEC is an admission of the decline of its role and influence in light of its political isolation,” Anwar Gargash, UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, said in a tweet.

Doha, one of OPEC’s smallest oil producers but the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, said earlier on Monday it was quitting OPEC from January to focus on its gas ambitions.

Breakingviews - #Qatar’s OPEC exit is a deft way to irritate Saudi | Reuters

Breakingviews - Qatar’s OPEC exit is a deft way to irritate Saudi | Reuters:

Qatar has found a new way to irritate Saudi Arabia. Since June last year, the tiny gulf state of 2.6 million people has dealt with a hair-raising blockade by its neighbour with relative insouciance. Now it is equally nonchalantly leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the once all-powerful club of which Saudi is the de facto leader.

Qatar has good reasons to do so. For one, it can afford to. In October Doha provided only 600,000 barrels per day of OPEC’s 33 million bpd output level, whereas Saudi provided 10.7 million bpd. Developing its huge, lower-carbon natural gas reserves should push output in barrel-of-oil-equivalent terms from 4.8 million boe to 6.5 million boe during the next decade. And OPEC membership hasn’t stopped Saudi and fellow member United Arab Emirates cutting off economic links.

Indonesia, Gabon and Ecuador have all suspended membership since OPEC’s 1960 formation. But the departure of Qatar, on board since 1961, comes at a time when there are more and more reasons for smaller members of the group to question its benefits. They often get a raw deal anyway, because spare production capacity is largely concentrated in Saudi hands. In the summer, for example, OPEC’s decision to pump more oil allowed Riyadh to grab both market share and huge profits.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Oil rally boosts Qatar, Saudi; Egypt hits one-year low | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Oil rally boosts Qatar, Saudi; Egypt hits one-year low | Reuters:

Qatar’s stock market rose sharply on Monday and Saudi stocks gained, helped by a surge in oil prices, which boosted their banks and petrochemical stocks, while Egypt slumped to its lowest in a year.

Oil prices jumped by more than 5 percent after the United States and China agreed on a truce in their trade dispute.

“GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries to remain comfortable from a fiscal point of view with Brent oil prices at USD 60-70/bbl,” Arqaam Capital said in a note, adding that it expects a downside risk in GCC equities if prices drop below the range after the OPEC meeting.

Qatar’s exit puts question mark on OPEC’s future - The Peninsula Qatar

Qatar’s exit puts question mark on OPEC’s future - The Peninsula Qatar:

As Qatar’s announcement to exit OPEC stirred up a storm in global energy market, Doha-based energy experts and audit firms held urgent internal meetings to take stock of the situation. They debated ‘what does the withdrawal mean to OPEC and global energy market and to Qatar?”, market sources told The Peninsula.

“Our experts are discussing the deeper implications of Qatar’s decision to exit the cartel. But we have decided not to share our thoughts on public domain at this point of time,” a top audit firm’s communications officer said. The Peninsula enquiries revealed that energy-sensitive firms and other audit firms also held similar internal meetings, soon after Qatar announced its decision to end its 57-year long membership with OPEC.

Twitter handles were abuzz with the news break.”It is better if OPEC breaks, free market may stablise oil prices,” read a tweet.

Abraaj fall from grace prompts investors to sharpen due diligence | Financial Times

Abraaj fall from grace prompts investors to sharpen due diligence | Financial Times:

Investing in emerging market private equity is about to become that bit tougher. 


Abraaj, once the largest private equity firm specialising in regions such as Africa and the Middle East, has been accused by investors including the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Bank of mishandling millions of dollars of their investments.

Since concerns were first raised in autumn 2017, investor trust has further eroded and the firm’s indebtedness has been exposed.

Qatar to Leave OPEC as Politics Finally Rupture Oil Cartel - Bloomberg

Qatar to Leave OPEC as Politics Finally Rupture Oil Cartel - Bloomberg:

Qatar said it will leave OPEC next month, a rare example of the toxic politics of the Middle East rupturing a group that had held together for decades through war and sanctions.

Qatar, a member since 1961, is leaving to focus on its liquefied natural gas production, Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi told a news conference in Doha on Monday. He didn’t mention the political backdrop to the decision: dire relations with Saudi Arabia, which has led a blockade against his country since 2017; and a rhetorical onslaught from U.S. President Donald Trump against the cartel.

“The symbolism is profound,” said Helima Croft, commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC and a former analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. “Given that the concentrating on LNG should not be incompatible with OPEC membership, the move will invariably lead many to conclude that the geopolitical divisions had become too intractable.”

Dubai stock market: Is this just another correction? | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Dubai stock market: Is this just another correction? | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

For over 2 decades, Dubai has prospered as one of the fastest developing international cities, attracting people and capital from across the globe. In 2009, Dubai needed a $20 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi. Dubai's economy roared back and has grown by a third since then, buoyed by foreign trade, tourism and its status as the main regional hub for business services.

Now, however, Dubai has hit another rough patch with residential property prices dropping by more than 15 per cent since late 2014. Economic activity in the emirate has been lagging as real estate prices dropped and domestic demand faltered. Traditional growth engines of the Dubai economy such as real estate, trade, transport and hospitality have remained weak.

The UAE's Non-Oil Private Sector Purchasing Managers Index, an indicator of economic health, has increased to 55.3 in September 2018 from a 5-month low of 55.0 in August. After peaking at 61.2 in late 2014, it fell to lows of 51.7 in 2016. Currently, it has been hovering around the mean level of 55.

Oil surges 5 percent on trade truce, expected supply cuts | Reuters

Oil surges 5 percent on trade truce, expected supply cuts | Reuters:

Oil prices jumped by more than 5 percent on Monday after the United States and China agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade dispute, and ahead of a meeting this week of the producer club OPEC that is expected to cut supply.

U.S. light crude oil CLc1 rose $2.92 a barrel to a high of $53.85, up 5.7 percent, before easing to around $53.00 by 0930 GMT. Brent crude LCOc1 rose 5.3 percent or $3.14 to a high of $62.60 and was last trading around $61.60.

“From Argentina to Alberta, the oil market news is about supply curtailments,” said Norbert Rücker, head of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer. “A brightening market mood will likely extend today’s price rally in the very near term.”

Saudi's AHAB turns to new bankruptcy law to settle with creditors | Reuters

Saudi's AHAB turns to new bankruptcy law to settle with creditors | Reuters:

Conglomerate Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi and Brothers (AHAB) has become the first company to file for a settlement under Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, seeking to resolve the kingdom’s longest-running and largest debt dispute.

The company hopes the move will help to bring a conclusion to creditor talks that have rumbled on since AHAB and Saad Group defaulted on about $22 billion of debt in 2009.

The law, which came into effect in August 2018, is the latest of the kingdom’s reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and reducing the economy’s dependence on oil.

#Qatar to leave OPEC and focus on gas as it takes swipe at Riyadh | Reuters

Qatar to leave OPEC and focus on gas as it takes swipe at Riyadh | Reuters:

Qatar said on Monday it was quitting OPEC from January to focus on its gas ambitions, taking a swipe at the group’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia and marring efforts to show unity before this week’s meeting of exporters to tackle an oil price slide.

Doha, one of OPEC’s smallest oil producers but the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, is embroiled in a protracted diplomatic row with Saudi Arabia and some other Arab states.

Qatar said its decision was not driven by politics but in an apparent swipe at Riyadh, Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad al-Kaabi said: “We are not saying we are going to get out of the oil business but it is controlled by an organization managed by a country.” He did not name the nation.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi rises on oil gains, banks boost Qatar | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi rises on oil gains, banks boost Qatar | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s stock market rose as oil prices climbed by more than 4 percent on Monday, leading to gains in its petrochemical and bank stocks.

Qatar’s market also rose on the back of its banks, even as the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter said it would withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as of January 2019.

The withdrawal decision reflects Qatar’s intent to focus its efforts on developing its natural gas industry, the country’s energy minister said, adding that the decision was not linked to a political and economic boycott of Qatar imposed by OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia and its allies since June 2017.