Monday 31 December 2018

#Qatar's PPI surges 18.9% year-on-year in November

Qatar's PPI surges 18.9% year-on-year in November:

Robust hydrocarbons and manufacturing sector helped Qatar's industrial producers' earnings register a double-digit growth year-on-year in November 2018, according to official estimates.

Qatar's producer price index (PPI) – a measure of the average selling prices received by the domestic producers for their output – surged 18.9% on an yearly basis but reported a sharp 5.7% month-on-month decline during the review period, said the figures released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS).

MDPS had released a new PPI series in late 2015. With a base of 2013, it draws on an updated sampling frame and new weights. The previous sampling frame dates from 2006, when the Qatari economy was much smaller than today and the range of products made domestically much narrower.

#UAE banks invest $24bln in #SaudiArabia, Egypt | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE banks invest $24bln in Saudi Arabia, Egypt | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The investment of UAE’s banks in Saudi Arabia and Egypt reached AED87.2 billion at the end of Q3 2018, representing 12.5 per cent of the total assets invested abroad, which amounted to about AED693 billion in September of the same year.

Figures from the UAE Central Bank show that the value of investments by UAE banks, their subsidiaries and affiliates remain at their highest levels in the United Kingdom with a value of AED53 billion.

The UAE's banking system is the largest in terms of assets in the Middle East and North Africa. By the end of September 2018, its total assets stood at AED2.84 trillion. The total value of the investments of UAE’s banks in Egypt reached AED47.2 billion at the end of September 2018, while the value of its investments in Saudi Arabia, during the same period, was AED40 billion; AED36 billion in the Cayman Islands; AED34 billion in the United States, AED25 billion in India, AED20 billion in Oman, and about the same value in Bahrain, while the rest was distributed between the other countries.

Saudi Aramco buys remaining 50 percent of rubber joint venture from Lanxess | Reuters

Saudi Aramco buys remaining 50 percent of rubber joint venture from Lanxess | Reuters:

Saudi Aramco has completed its acquisition of a 50 percent stake in Arlanxeo, its Netherlands-based joint venture with chemicals firm Lanxess, to become the full owner of the company, it said in a statement on Monday.

Lanxess’s share in the synthetic rubber and elastomer products venture was valued at 1.5 billion euros ($1.72 billion), Aramco said. Arlanxeo will maintain its current base in Maastricht.

Oversupply, faltering growth to weigh on oil prices in 2019: Reuters poll | Reuters

Oversupply, faltering growth to weigh on oil prices in 2019: Reuters poll | Reuters:

Crude oil prices look likely to trade below $70 per barrel in 2019 as surplus production, much of it from the United States, and slowing economic growth undermine OPEC-led efforts to shore up the market, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

A survey of 32 economists and analysts forecasts the North Sea Brent crude oil benchmark LCOc1 will average $69.13 per barrel in 2019, more than $5 lower than last month’s projection.

Brent has averaged $71.76 in 2018.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Dubai leaps as Gulf ends strong year; oil clouds 2019 | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Dubai leaps as Gulf ends strong year; oil clouds 2019 | Reuters:

Dubai’s beaten-down stock market rose sharply on Monday as the largest Gulf bourses ended a year in which most outperformed global benchmarks, although soft oil prices cloud the outlook for 2019.

The Dubai index, which hit five-year lows last week, surged 2.4 percent — it biggest rise since June 2017 — as real estate stocks rebounded. Emaar Properties gained 3.3 percent and DAMAC Properties added 4.1 percent.

Dubai’s bounce still left it down 24.9 percent for all of 2018, making it the world’s worst-performing major stock market for the year in local currency terms, marginally underperforming indexes in Shanghai and Athens.

Gulf Arab Energy Firms May Lean on Debt in 2019 as Oil Falters - Bloomberg

Gulf Arab Energy Firms May Lean on Debt in 2019 as Oil Falters - Bloomberg:

Gulf Arab energy companies are expected to borrow more in 2019 to finance expansion plans after rising oil prices triggered a sharp retreat from debt markets in 2018.

Higher oil prices eased pressure on government budgets in Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2018 and allowed the region’s energy companies to self-finance operations, according to Rory Fyfe, Chief Economist at MENA Advisors. That’s a shift from 2017 when lower oil prompted companies to issue record debt.

This dynamic could be repeated in 2019. Average oil prices hit a 4-year high in 2018, but ended the year on a dismal quarter that clouded the outlook for 2019. With global benchmark Brent crude down about 35 percent since October, energy companies in the region may have to accelerate their borrowing again.

POLL-Mideast funds wary on 2019, will favour #Saudi, Kuwaiti stocks | ZAWYA MENA Edition

POLL-Mideast funds wary on 2019, will favour Saudi, Kuwaiti stocks | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Middle Eastern funds are cautious about prospects for regional markets as a whole in 2019 but are likely to pour sizeable amounts of money into Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti equities, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Thirty-one percent of fund managers expect to raise their allocations to regional equities over the next three months and 8 percent to reduce them, according to the monthly poll of 13 leading fund managers, conducted over the past 10 days.

Although that balance is positive, it is the least bullish balance for any month of December since the survey was launched in 2013. Last December, 54 percent expected to raise regional equity allocations and none to reduce them.

REIT turn: #Saudi sees surge in listings, but market performance is tough | ZAWYA MENA Edition

REIT turn: Saudi sees surge in listings, but market performance is tough | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The market for real estate investment funds (REITs) in Saudi Arabia saw strong growth in 2018, with the number of listings rising by a third since the first quarter of 2018 and it’s total worth in terms of market capitalisation surging by around 50 percent to pass the $3 billion mark, according to a new report published on Sunday by real estate consultancy firm Knight Frank.

However, the REIT market in the kingdom has faced a tough year on the bourse. While the Tadawul all share index rose by around 10 percent in 2018, the REIT index has fallen by around 20 percent year-to-date.

As a result, Knight Frank predicts that in 2019 it expects “the pace of REITs listings to moderate as indicated by fewer numbers of approved REITs in the pipeline”.

Brent crude rises but set for first yearly drop since 2015 | Reuters

Brent crude rises but set for first yearly drop since 2015 | Reuters:

Oil prices rose about 2 percent on the final day of the year on Monday, mirroring gains in stock markets, but were on track for the first annual decline in three years amid lingering concerns of a persistent supply glut.

Hints of progress on a possible U.S.-China trade deal, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying he had a “very good call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, helped bolster sentiment for oil.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 was up 83 cents at $54.05 a barrel by 0932 GMT, after rising by over a $1 a barrel in early trade to a high of $54.55 a barrel.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most of Gulf rises in thin trade, ENBD aids #Dubai | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most of Gulf rises in thin trade, ENBD aids Dubai | Reuters:

Most major Gulf stock markets rose early on Monday in light trade with many investors away on year-end holidays, while Dubai gained sharply, boosted by bank shares.

Saudi Arabia’s index gained 0.3 percent in the first 70 minutes with Al Rajhi Bank adding 0.6 percent and Samba Financial Group climbing 1.0 percent.

In Dubai, the index rose 1.4 percent, gaining for a fifth straight day after hitting a five-year low last week. The largest lender, Emirates NBD, jumped 5.4 percent in thin volume.

Sunday 30 December 2018

Union Properties approves share buy-back amid restructuring - The National

Union Properties approves share buy-back amid restructuring - The National:

Shareholders of Union Properties, the Dubai real estate developer restructuring to narrow losses incurred during the oil-price slump, approved plans to buy-back up to 10 per cent of its shares for the purpose of reselling it, the company said in a bourse filing on Sunday.

The buy-back is intended to help the company shore up its finances as it continues to reorganise its business.

The company’s third-quarter net loss widened to Dh61.8 million, from a Dh44.1m loss recorded in the year-earlier period, as direct costs, administrative and finance charges rose, it said in a bourse filing in November.

The #Abraaj saga is far from over and questions need answering in 2019 - The National

The Abraaj saga is far from over and questions need answering in 2019 - The National:

The collapse of Abraaj Group, once the Middle East’s biggest private equity firm, was a market-roiling business story of 2018, and it is far from over.

“Given the challenging legal and governance complexities of the case, compounded with multiple geographies in terms of assets, I think this will take at least a few years to conclude,” said Khalid Howladar, managing director and founder of Acreditus, a boutique risk and regulatory advisory firm based in Dubai.

“Nonetheless, there are probably some attractive assets on the balance sheet and a sale of one or more of these over 2019 is likely,” he told The National.

Small stocks recover on #UAE bourses

Small stocks recover on UAE bourses:

Small stocks in the UAE gained in trade on Sunday, recovering from their lows, when they witnessed profit-taking on Thursday. 

Gulf Finance House closed 9.15 per cent higher at Dh0.930, after gaining 10 per cent in the previous session. Union Properties closed 1.23 per cent higher at Dh0.410. Salama Insurance closed 3.77 per cent higher at Dh0.440. Union Properties closed 1.23 per cent higher at Dh0.410. Dana Gas closed 2.77 per cent higher at Dh0.85. Dubai Islamic Bank closed 0.80 per cent lower at Dh4.96.

Traded value fell to a paltry Dh89 million in Dubai. “Going forward, the trading activity within the MENA region is likely to track the sentiments in global markets as well as the movement in oil prices, which continues to influence the performance of regional economies,” Allied Investment Partners said in a note.

#Dubai Duty Free sales soar above $2bn

Dubai Duty Free sales soar above $2bn:

Annual sales clocked up by Dubai Duty Free (DDF) hit 7.3 billion dirhams ($2 billion) on Saturday morning, the emirate’s airport retailer said in a statement. 

The sales figure marks a record for DDF, which reported 7.05 billion dirhams in sales in 2017, although the rate of growth has slowed.

The retailer reported sales worth 6.6 billion dirhams in 2016. “2018 has been a good year for Dubai Duty Free, and we have been building up toward the $2 billion sales figure all year,” said Colm McLoughlin, CEO of Dubai Duty Free.

GECF member-countries can emerge as global LNG bunkering hubs - The Peninsula Qatar

GECF member-countries can emerge as global LNG bunkering hubs - The Peninsula Qatar:

The Doha-headquartered Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has said that its member-countries have great potential to emerge as international LNG bunkering hubs. 

As LNG is all set to become a significant fuel in marine transport in long term, the GECF countries should consider becoming first movers instead of just taking a wait-and-see position, said Aydar Shakirov, Gas Transportation & Storage Analyst, Gas Market Analysis Department at GECF.

With International Maritime Organization (IMO) introducing the new sulphur cap of 0.5 percent from 2020, demand for LNG bunker fuel is expected to rise, Shakirov said in an ‘expert commentary’ released by GECF.

#Qatar’s fiscal position strengthens on oil, gas revenues: EIU

Qatar’s fiscal position strengthens on oil, gas revenues: EIU:

The risk of capital outflows induced by the regional blockade on Qatar has largely subsided with the “recovery of foreign reserves and the return to a current-account surplus” in 2018, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. 

Moreover, reserves at the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA, the sovereign wealth fund) are sufficient to maintain the currency peg to the dollar for several years, meaning that a “devaluation remains a distant prospect” EIU said in an overview.

Qatar’s fiscal position (which is now in a surplus) is also strengthening, because of an increase in oil and gas revenue, although spending on subsidies and wages will remain a “constraint on the rating”.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Saudi the only bright spot in a sluggish region | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi the only bright spot in a sluggish region | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s stock market was the only bright spot in a sluggish Middle East on Sunday as most bourses moved sideways in trade thinned by the absence of some investors for year-end holidays.

The Saudi market has been dampened in the last few months by falling oil prices and geopolitical worries linked to the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

However, many fund managers expect a rally in the new year in anticipation of some $15 billion of passive funds that are due to enter the bourse when it joins emerging market indexes.

#Lebanon Entering `Financial Crisis' Prompts Minister's Dire Call - Bloomberg

Lebanon Entering `Financial Crisis' Prompts Minister's Dire Call - Bloomberg: Lebanon’s plight is turning into a crisis that could ultimately threaten the Middle Eastern country’s economic foundations, according to its finance minister.

“The crisis today has started to transform into a financial crisis from an economic crisis,” Ali Hassan Khalil was cited as saying by Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency. “We hope that it doesn’t turn into a monetary crisis that will lead to the Lebanese losing trust in their country’s future and their institutions.”

A political stalemate that’s delayed formation of a government seven months after elections is undermining plans for reforms that would unlock $11 billion in aid for Lebanon. The impasse in one of the world’s most indebted countries comes as the central bank’s ability to paper over the crisis has been constrained by years of anemic economic growth, slowing foreign inflows and a surge in borrowing costs.

Emaar's Talks With Egypt Over New Capital City Project Stall - Bloomberg

Emaar's Talks With Egypt Over New Capital City Project Stall - Bloomberg:

Talks between Egyptian officials and the Dubai-based Emaar Properties PJSC to develop a 1,500 acre (607 hectares) plot in the new administrative capital have stalled, underscoring the country’s struggle to involve top-tier foreign companies in the mega project.

“The negotiations have stopped,” Ahmed Zaki Abdeen, who heads the company created to oversee the construction of the city, said in a phone interview. The Emirati company wanted to buy the land at a price below the 3,500-4,000 Egyptian pounds ($223) per square meter typically sought for the residential developments in the project, he said.

The participation by Emaar, the developer of the world’s tallest skyscraper in Dubai, had promised to add a luster to the multi-billion dollar venture overseen by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Egypt’s plan involves transforming a 700 square-kilometer swath of desert into a gleaming capital and business hub, replete with gardens, lakes and the kind of order that has eluded Cairo and its roughly 20 million residents.

#SaudiArabia's Government Shake-Up: Four Key Takeaways - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia's Government Shake-Up: Four Key Takeaways - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia reshuffled its cabinet on Thursday in the first major change in government since the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in October.

While the shake-up was expected -- Saudi law requires the cabinet to be replaced or reappointed every four years -- some of the changes were surprising, such as appointing former Finance Minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf as foreign minister.

#SaudiArabia sells 1.285 billion riyals sukuk in monthly issue | Reuters

Saudi Arabia sells 1.285 billion riyals sukuk in monthly issue | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Ministry has issued 1.285 billion riyals ($343 million) of domestic Islamic bonds in a tap of a sukuk issue that was originally made in October under its monthly issuance programme, the ministry said on Sunday.

The tap brought total issuance of the October sukuk up to 6.535 billion riyals: 2.730 billion riyals of five-year sukuk, 1.435 billion riyals of seven-year and 2.370 billion riyals of 10-year.

Arab states need more structural reform, short-term plans to grow faster: economists | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Arab states need more structural reform, short-term plans to grow faster: economists | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Arab nations should continue implementing long term structural reforms, but pushing through short-term policies is key to boosting growth in the coming few years, according to three senior economists.

Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic analysis at Cairo-based investment bank EFG Hermes, said the region’s three biggest economies of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt have already started introducing short-term measures aimed at boosting employment and economic growth, while maintaining diversification plans.

“They do have short-term plans… and they have spotted the structural reforms they need to work on to boost their growth rates, so they are on the right track… But they need to continue to do that and (do) more of that,” Abu Basha told Zawya in a phone interview last week.

Fixed Income: Returns pressured by interest rate rises, but index inclusion could drive more investment into GCC bonds | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Fixed Income: Returns pressured by interest rate rises, but index inclusion could drive more investment into GCC bonds | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Rising interest rates roiled debt markets worldwide this year, although higher hydrocarbon revenues enabled Gulf bonds and sukuk to fare better, and the region’s imminent inclusion in widely-followed fixed income benchmarks suggests a late-year rebound could extend into 2019.

Bond and sukuk issuance in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) this year totalled $77 billion as of Dec. 10, down from $85 billion in the prior-year period, according to data from Emirates NBD, as shrinking budget deficits reduced the need for governments to sell debt.

Meanwhile, the Barclays GCC Credit + High Yield Index had a total 2018 return of 0.03 percent as of Dec. 7; the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Total Return Index was down 3.18 percent over the same period.

#Sharjah makes enhanced offer for struggling Invest Bank | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Sharjah makes enhanced offer for struggling Invest Bank | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The Government of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates has made an enhanced offer to invest in struggling Invest Bank INVB.AD and the bank's shareholders will vote on the deal on Jan. 8, the lender said on Sunday.

Sharjah, one of seven emirates in UAE federation, had earlier offered to invest up to 1.9 billion dirhams ($517 million) in Invest Bank, one of the smaller banks in the UAE.

A shareholder vote had been scheduled for Dec. 29, but the meeting was adjourned until Jan. 8 to vote on the enhanced offer, the lender said in a stock exchange filing.

Mideast Stocks: Gulf moves sideways early on, petchems support Saudi | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Gulf moves sideways early on, petchems support Saudi | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Most Gulf stock markets moved sideways in thin trading early on Sunday with petrochemicals supporting Saudi Arabia and real estate shares remaining soft in Dubai.

The Saudi stock index was up 0.5 percent after half an hour of trade with 11 of 14 petrochemical stocks higher and only two lower. The biggest, Saudi Basic Industries, added 0.7 percent.

Institutional investor aappeared less active because of global holiday season, leaving an unusually high protion of volume focused on second- or third-tier stocks. Home furnishings company Al Sorayai Trading and Industrial was the most heavily traded stock, rising 0.9 percent.

Saturday 29 December 2018

More deals and partners to come for Adnoc after landmark 2018, says Sultan Al Jaber - The National

More deals and partners to come for Adnoc after landmark 2018, says Sultan Al Jaber - The National:

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company plans to conclude new transactions and partnerships next year as it builds on a landmark 2018, during which it secured billions of dirhams in fees and customers for almost half the country’s crude for the coming four decades.

Adnoc will also identify new investment opportunities in 2019, said Dr Sultan Al Jaber, group chief executive and a UAE Minister of State.

“We have a number of exciting transactions and partnerships in the pipeline that we look forward to delivering in the year ahead as part of our 2030 smart growth strategy,” he said.

Movement, but little progress for #UAE markets

Movement, but little progress for UAE markets:

The Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) fell by 40.32 or 1.61 to end at 2,469.49. That’s the sixth week out of seven that the index has closer lower. There were 12 advancing issues and 26 declining, while volume fell to a three-week low.

Once again the DFMGI ended at a lower weekly close after falling to a new trend low for the long-term downtrend. Last week’s close was the lowest weekly closing price since the first week of September 2013 and it is a notice for further weakness.

Four weeks ago the index triggered a continuation of its long-term downtrend as it fell below the prior long-term swing low support of 2,590.72 from January 2016, and closed below it on a weekly basis. Since then the DFMGI has continued to fall reaching as low as 2,429.12 last week. That’s a 55.1 per cent correction off the May 2014 peak.

#Qatar’s LNG has a very dominant role in Mediterranean market: IEA official - The Peninsula Qatar

Qatar’s LNG has a very dominant role in Mediterranean market: IEA official - The Peninsula Qatar:

Natural gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean are unlikely to be a game-changer given rising supplies in the global gas market, according to the Turkish head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Discoveries of new gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean have put some countries in the spotlight, but feasibility, political challenges, and the presence of other major gas producers impose hurdles on projects that may fail to have a major impact on the gas market, Fatih Birol said yesterday.

“Qatar’s liquefied natural gas has a very dominant role in the Mediterranean market,” he told Anadolu Agency. With Qatar, American gas, and incoming supply from a couple of countries in the Middle East region, it looks very difficult economically to constitute a major project in the eastern Mediterranean, plus there are some political issues as well.”

#Qatar Airways' sustainability, resilience seen in 2018; HIA sees more passengers

Qatar Airways' sustainability, resilience seen in 2018; HIA sees more passengers:

Qatar Airways added a record 23 new destinations over the past 18 months since the unjustified blockade on the country by a quartet of Arab nations, most of which were connected to its global network in 2018. 

This is a key indicator of the national carrier’s sustainability and resilience, something which has never been achieved by any other airline.

Many new destinations are coming up in 2019. New routes to both Isfahan (Iran) and Valletta (Malta) have already been announced for the next year, a further testament to Qatar Airways' growth.

BlackRock, Capital Group and Pimco Managers Warn of 2019 Risks - Bloomberg

BlackRock, Capital Group and Pimco Managers Warn of 2019 Risks - Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks are looking scary after their worst year in a decade. Credit is risky too. Volatility is back. For many, cash and short-term debt may be the best place to go. 


As fund company executives, portfolio managers and strategists at some of the world’s biggest money managers turn to 2019, they’re cautioning that returns could be muted across asset classes. They’re also urging investors to be increasingly selective in the quest for value. Here’s a sampling of views.

Oil Bulls Cap Wackiest Year-End in Decade With Bet on 2019 Rally - Bloomberg

Oil Bulls Cap Wackiest Year-End in Decade With Bet on 2019 Rally - Bloomberg:

Hedge funds are keeping their cool in the most tumultuous end of the year for oil since the 2008 financial crisis, betting on better days ahead.

They boosted wagers on rising Brent prices for a third straight week amid expectations that OPEC and allies will follow through on a deal to reduce output. The vote of confidence comes against a backdrop of turmoil in financial markets that saw one measure of oil-price volatility jump the most on record in November and head for its highest year-end level in a decade.

“There is a little more optimism and neutrality coming into markets and we’re getting some positive signs,” said Ashley Petersen, an oil analyst at Stratas Advisors LLC in New York. “It’s not as if demand is tanking tomorrow and supply is going to triple. We’re seeing a little more rationale enter markets, a little more of a wait-and-see mode.”

#Saudi Public Investment Fund boosts investments in 2018 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi Public Investment Fund boosts investments in 2018 | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign investor Public Investment Fund (PIF) has stepped up its expansions this year by implementing transactions with various local and global investors.

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s (PIF) new investments are part of the kingdom’s Vision 2030 that aims to diversify economic resources away from oil revenues and invest more heavily in infrastructure.

Accorinvest

In March, AccorHotels signed contracts with a number of investors including the PIF to sell a 55% stake in its subsidiary AccorInvest at a value of $5.4 billion (EUR 4.4 billion).

Saudi Arabia’s PIF, Singapore’s GIC Pte sovereign-wealth fund, Credit Agricole Assurances, Amundi SA, Colony NorthStar Inc. and other investors had joined forces to acquire the majority stake in AccorInvest's property business.

Saudi king brings veterans back into the fold | Financial Times

Saudi king brings veterans back into the fold | Financial Times:

When Ibrahim al-Assaf was detained at the Ritz-Carlton in Riyadh during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s extraordinary anti-corruption crackdown, many believed it marked an ignominious end to a long career serving the Saudi state.

But just over a year later, Mr Assaf, who spent two decades as finance minister under three kings, finds himself back at the heart of government. On Thursday, King Salman named him foreign minister, a position that has taken on increasing importance as Riyadh grapples with the diplomatic crisis triggered by the killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Mr Assaf is one of two veterans given prominent roles in a new cabinet as King Salman ordered broad changes to his government in an apparent bid to bring in experience and more institutional structure to decision making.

Friday 28 December 2018

Middle East airlines expecting more turbulence in 2019 remain optimistic on strong travel demand - The National

Middle East airlines expecting more turbulence in 2019 remain optimistic on strong travel demand - The National:

Arabian Gulf airlines say they expect to face further headwinds in the next 12 months but are optimistic about growth in 2019 as demand for travel remains strong.

Airlines in the region foresee oil price volatility, currency fluctuations, escalating trade tensions and increasingly fierce competition clouding the industry outlook next year. However, the companies said they remain bullish as they focus on expanding into new markets, keeping costs in check and growing their fleet to cater to rising passenger demand for travel.

“We are optimistic about our own growth in 2019,” Tim Clark, president of Emirates airlines, told The National this week. “We’ve seen that the global appetite for travel remains resilient, in spite of the patchy economic growth or geopolitical turbulence. People still want to travel. Consumers will simply re-calibrate their travel plans and we have to stay agile in how we deploy our capacity to best serve that demand.”

#AbuDhabi’s three-way banking merger likely in 2019 first quarter

Abu Dhabi’s three-way banking merger likely in 2019 first quarter:

Creating bigger banks would help with the industry’s medium-term progress, especially as fintech-related services are making a presence regionally, analysts said as news reports emerged that the merger of Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB), Union National Bank and Al Hilal Bank is expected to be completed in the first quarter next year.

The Arabic daily ‘Al Khaleej’ quoting sources reported that a committee consisting of financial and legal consultants completed the merger study and a decision is expected in February. The merger would result in GCC’s fifth largest bank with a capital of $13.8 billion (Dh51 billion) and assets of about $120 billion (Dh440.7 billion). The new bank will offer commercial banking and Islamic banking services.

The development comes after ADCB and Union National Bank both confirmed in separate statements on Abu Dhabi bourse in September that they are in early talks about a potential merger.

QSE’s main index closes at 10,287.70 points - The Peninsula Qatar

QSE’s main index closes at 10,287.70 points - The Peninsula Qatar:

Qatar Stock Exchange’s (QSE) benchmark index lost 124.81 points, or 1.20 percent, last week when the bourse closed yesterday at 10,287.70 points.

Trading value during last week decreased by 51.05 percent to reach QR926.99m compared to QR1.89bn in the previous week.

Trading volume decreased by 43.34 percent to reach 54.44 million shares, as against 96.08 million shares, while the number of transactions fell by 50.94 percent, to reach 32,603 transactions as compared to 66,457 transactions.

QSE world's best performer in 2018 with about 20% returns

QSE world's best performer in 2018 with about 20% returns:

The #Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) brought out the best performance in the world in 2018 with about 20% returns, a far higher than that offered in the neighbourhood; denting the hopes of the Saudi-led quartet that imposed trade and economic blockade on Doha.

The consumer goods, telecom, industrials and transport sectors were seen out-performing the market, whose capitalisation gained approximately QR25bn in 2018; although their net profitability had a chequered path.

The year saw the increased exposure of international funds, especially from the US and Europe. A preliminary estimate suggests that the first six months of 2018 has seen more than $1.45bn in foreign net inflows demonstrating the confidence in the outlook for Qatar, particularly amongst foreign investors.

Shale Explorers Boost U.S. Work Again Despite Oil Price Collapse - Bloomberg

Shale Explorers Boost U.S. Work Again Despite Oil Price Collapse - Bloomberg:

Oil producers again boosted U.S. drilling this week despite the biggest quarterly drop in oil prices since 2014.

Working U.S. oil rigs rose by 2 this week to 885, according to data released Friday by oilfield services provider Baker Hughes. More than 100 additional rigs have been deployed across American fields this year.

Still, drilling activity may be poised to slow as producers including Diamondback Energy Inc. and Parsley Energy Inc. scale back spending in response to the lowest crude prices in more than a year.

Oil prices steady near year-and-a-half lows ahead of New Year | Reuters

Oil prices steady near year-and-a-half lows ahead of New Year | Reuters:

Oil prices steadied on Friday after a week of volatile trading ahead of the New Year holiday, supported by a rise in U.S. equity markets but pressured by worries about a global glut of crude.

Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose 6 cents to $52.22 a barrel by 1:12 p.m. EST (1812 GMT), off the session high of $53.80 a barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures rose 83 cents to $45.44 a barrel, after reaching $46.22 a barrel.

Oil Watchers See $70 a Barrel in 2019 as Recession Fears Fade - Bloomberg

Oil Watchers See $70 a Barrel in 2019 as Recession Fears Fade - Bloomberg:

The world’s biggest banks are reckoning on a rebound in oil prices next year as fears of a recession prove misplaced.

The Brent benchmark will average $70 a barrel in 2019, almost a third higher than its price on Thursday, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil analysts. Futures in London and New York plunged this quarter, with volatility soaring in its final week as crude tracked gyrations in equity markets.

Despite plans by OPEC and its allies to limit production next year to prevent a glut from forming, oil’s fortunes have increasingly been driven by moves in financial assets and concerns about the global economy. However, analysts expect markets are about to tighten as growth stays strong, OPEC’s supply cuts kick in, and unintended losses in Venezuela and Iran escalate.

No fee hikes, new taxes in #UAE for 2019 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

No fee hikes, new taxes in UAE for 2019 | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

After a fruitful 2018, the UAE will be starting the new year with an affirmation that will benefit businesses, individuals and the overall economy.

The UAE government earlier announced that Federal government fees will not be increased for a period of three years.

A decision to this effect was taken during a UAE Cabinet meeting and is intended to attract more foreign investments and promote economic and social stability, as well as support the industrial and commercial sectors.

Oil prices rebound but still weak due to oversupply | Reuters

Oil prices rebound but still weak due to oversupply | Reuters:

Oil prices rebounded on Friday, clawing back some of the ground lost this week, but remained close to their lowest levels in more than a year as rising U.S. inventories and concern over global economic growth kept markets under pressure.

Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up $1.20, or 2.3 percent, at $53.36 a barrel by 0830 GMT, having earlier risen more than 3 percent. It had dropped 4.2 percent on Thursday.

U.S. light crude CLc1 was up $1.20, or 2.7 percent, at $45.81, after rising 3.6 percent in early trade.

Thursday 27 December 2018

U.S. Shale's Blows Leave Middle East Oil Sellers Staggering - Bloomberg

U.S. Shale's Blows Leave Middle East Oil Sellers Staggering - Bloomberg:

The U.S. oil industry is delivering a one-two punch to Middle East producers already reeling from a collapse in prices.

A tussle is playing out in the market for so-called light oils, which have a lower sulfur content and are less dense than heavier varieties. When processed, these grades typically yield a higher amount of fuels like gasoline and naphtha. And now, American supplies are weighing on prices for such crudes as well as fuels made from them.

Light oil pumped in U.S. shale fields is increasingly making its way to Asia, undercutting sales by the likes of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, America is exporting a record amount of refined fuel, contributing to a global glut in gasoline and naphtha. That’s hurting some of the biggest members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as they prepare to curb crude output in a bid to stabilize the market.

Oil Sell-Off Is Deepest to Follow an OPEC Output Cut in a Decade - Bloomberg

Oil Sell-Off Is Deepest to Follow an OPEC Output Cut in a Decade - Bloomberg:

Crude’s recent sell-off is a grim reminder that OPEC’s management of the oil market isn’t foolproof. The group’s Dec. 7 decision to curb output among members and allied producers was supposed to prop up sinking prices. Instead, it resulted in the worst post-cut price decline in a decade.

Global marker Brent has fallen as much as 16 percent, or nearly $10 a barrel, following the cartel’s announcement that it would trim production by 1.2 million barrels a day. That’s only pressured crude’s nearly 40 percent slide from an October high.

Not since 2008 has oil suffered such a blow in the wake of an OPEC cut -- when the cartel surprised the market with a series of curbs in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The final cut, in December 2008, saw oil sink as much as 18 percent.

#Saudi Prince's Allies Retain Jobs in Post-Khashoggi Shake-Up - Bloomberg

Saudi Prince's Allies Retain Jobs in Post-Khashoggi Shake-Up - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia kept key supporters of Mohammed Bin Salman in their cabinet jobs and brought in some new ones, in the first major government shake-up since the kingdom and its crown prince became the focus of an outcry over the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

The ministers of finance, energy, economy and trade -- senior members of the crown prince’s team -- retained their positions in an overhaul announced on Thursday, when a series of royal decrees issued by King Salman were read out on national television.

The king also promoted several young royals, many of whom have worked with the 33-year-old heir to the throne. Prince Abdullah bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz was appointed to head the powerful National Guard, while other princes were named as provincial rulers.

#UAE’s real estate market on cusp of robust recovery in 2019: Al Ruwad CEO | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE’s real estate market on cusp of robust recovery in 2019: Al Ruwad CEO | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The UAE’s real estate market has managed to remain stable during 2018 after overcoming the price correction wave and slowdown that began two years ago, the CEO of Al Ruwad Real Estate said.

Catalysts and laws are two key factors that will help the UAE property market witness a robust recovery in 2019, Ismail Al Hammadi told Mubasher in an exclusive interview.

He noted that the market saw the most severe price correction movement resulting from lower oil prices, the foreign-currency exchange rate against the greenback, coupled with the regional political crisis.

#Saudi owes $533mln in arrears to project contractors | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi owes $533mln in arrears to project contractors | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia owes nearly two billion Saudi riyals ($533 million) in arrears to local contractors for projects executed several years ago, the Gulf kingdom's top contractor said in press comments on Wednesday.

Although the Finance Ministry has recently promised to pay the debt to the contractors within 60 days, no disbursements have been made yet, Osama Al-Afaliq, chairman of the Saudi Contractors' Authority, told the Saudi Arabic language daily Al-Madina.

"About two billion riyals in stalled payments are owed to the contracting sector….there has been a long delay in paying those funds due to rifts between some contractors and the government over how much they are owed," Afaliq was quoted as saying.

Oil prices drop as U.S. stock markets retreat | Reuters

Oil prices drop as U.S. stock markets retreat | Reuters:

Oil prices fell on Thursday, retreating from an 8 percent rally in the previous session as Wall Street stocks also fell and the oil market focused on signs of faltering global economic growth and record production of crude. 

Brent crude LCOc1 futures dropped 4.24 percent, or $2.31, to settle at $52.16 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures fell $1.61 to settle at $44.61 a barrel, down 3.48 percent.

“The market is giving back some of its gains from yesterday that were brought along with the euphoria in the stock market,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

#Saudi king taps veteran finance chief as foreign minister to improve image | Reuters

Saudi king taps veteran finance chief as foreign minister to improve image | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s king put a veteran former finance minister in charge of foreign affairs on Thursday, aiming to improve the kingdom’s image after the crisis caused by the killing of a journalist and greater scrutiny of the Yemen war.

The Saudi government has come under intense international criticism over the murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October.

It has also faced growing scepticism over its intervention in Yemen, where the United Nations says millions of people could starve to death because of supply lines disrupted by a Saudi-led war against the Houthi movement which controls the capital.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Wall Street surge buoys Gulf, #Saudi banks strong | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Wall Street surge buoys Gulf, Saudi banks strong | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf stock markets gained on Thursday as the sharp rebound on Wall Street overnight and Brent oil's recovery from below $50 a barrel lifted investor sentiment.

Saudi Arabia's index rose 0.5 percent with Al Rajhi Bank adding 1.1 percent.

Riyad Bank climbed for a fourth straight day, adding 1.3 percent. The stock has been buoyed by news of merger discussions with National Commercial Bank, the kingdom's biggest lender by assets, which edged down 0.3 percent.

Close link between oil and rouble falters | Financial Times

Close link between oil and rouble falters | Financial Times:

In simpler times, it was a safe bet that the value of the Russian rouble would follow the price of oil like a shadow. Falling oil meant a falling rouble; rising oil took the currency up with it.

As the first chart shows, this held true for most of the past five years. But times are no longer so simple and this year — shown in more detail in the second chart — the correlation has broken down.

As Brett Diment, head of emerging market debt at Aberdeen Standard, wrote for the FT’s beyondbrics column this month, the rouble fell in April even as oil prices rose after the US imposed sanctions on Russia. In the fourth quarter, the rouble staged a recovery while oil prices collapsed, as the fear of further sanctions receded.

#Saudi Politics, Oil and Proxy Wars: Mideast Market Risks in 2019 - Bloomberg

Saudi Politics, Oil and Proxy Wars: Mideast Market Risks in 2019 - Bloomberg:

The list of potential pitfalls for Middle East investors next year is long.

With oil in a bear market, pressure on energy exporters is mounting. Saudi Arabia’s global standing is being questioned and Washington has turned its back on Iran, opening the way for increased -- and some say destabilizing -- Russian influence.

The region has never been for the faint-hearted. Traders who snapped up Saudi assets in the first half of the year, only to see the market turn against them after the murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, are nursing steep losses. Bahrain’s friends only bailed out the nation after its bonds got a battering and Aramco’s postponed share sale has dealt a blow to investor confidence.

U.S. Shale's Blows Leave Middle East Oil Sellers Staggering - Bloomberg

U.S. Shale's Blows Leave Middle East Oil Sellers Staggering - Bloomberg:

The U.S. oil industry is delivering a one-two punch to Middle East producers already reeling from a collapse in prices.

A tussle is playing out in the market for so-called light oils, which have a lower sulfur content and are less dense than heavier varieties. When processed, these grades typically yield a higher amount of fuels like gasoline and naphtha. And now, American supplies are weighing on prices for such crudes as well as fuels made from them.

Light oil pumped in U.S. shale fields is increasingly making its way to Asia, undercutting sales by the likes of Saudi Arabia. Additionally, America is exporting a record amount of refined fuel, contributing to a global glut in gasoline and naphtha. That’s hurting some of the biggest members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as they prepare to curb crude output in a bid to stabilize the market.

When a Big Rally in Oil Prices Only Gets You Back 1 Trading Day - Bloomberg

When a Big Rally in Oil Prices Only Gets You Back 1 Trading Day - Bloomberg:

Crude posted the biggest gain since 2016, but the rally only restored oil to levels last seen on Monday morning.

The U.S. benchmark surged 8.7 percent Wednesday to close at $46.22 a barrel. It was a rare time that oil has climbed more than a few percentage points, amid a rout that has wiped nearly 40 percent off the price of crude. The swing between the Christmas Eve carnage and Wednesday’s exuberance has kept oil market volatility at high levels after a spike in November.

“We saw the market got hit really hard and we’ve had a couple of these strong bounces and they seem to be pretty short-lived,” said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy, an energy consultancy based in Stamford, Connecticut. There are still “concerns about slowing demand growth and excess supplies.”

Oil slips back toward 18-month lows on oversupply | Reuters

Oil slips back toward 18-month lows on oversupply | Reuters:

Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday after rebounding 8 percent in the previous session, as worries over a glut in crude supply and concerns over a faltering global economy pressured prices even as a stock market surge offered support.

Brent crude oil was down 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $53.77 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. light crude oil was 50 cents lower at $45.72.

Oil prices reached multi-year highs in early October but have fallen almost 40 percent since then and are now approaching their lowest levels for 18 months.

#Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co sets up $2.9bln sukuk programme | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co sets up $2.9bln sukuk programme | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Government-owned Saudi Real Estate Refinance Co has established a programme allowing it to issue up to 11 billion riyals ($2.9 billion) of local currency-denominated Islamic bonds, the company said on Thursday.

The company mandated HSBC Saudi Arabia as sole lead manager and bookrunner to arrange meetings, and an initial, senior sukuk issue under the programme will follow, subject to market conditions, it said.

Mideast Stocks: Wall Street surge boosts Gulf, real estate lifts #Dubai | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Wall Street surge boosts Gulf, real estate lifts Dubai | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia and most other major Gulf stock markets rose in early trade on Thursday, buoyed by the sharp rebound on Wall Street overnight and Brent oil's recovery from below $50 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia's index rose 0.8 percent in the first 75 minutes with all 14 petrochemical stocks rising; Saudi Basic Industries increased 0.4 percent.

Riyad Bank  climbed for a fourth straight day, adding 1.5 percent. The stock has been buoyed by news of merger discussions with National Commercial Bank, the kingdom's biggest lender by assets, which edged up 0.1 percent.

Wednesday 26 December 2018

GCC banks lenders unite to be leaner and efficient in tough conditions - The National

GCC banks lenders unite to be leaner and efficient in tough conditions - The National:

Financial institutions in the region, home to one-third of the world’s proven oil reserves, are consolidating like never before. There is a banking merger transaction happening, or has recently been agreed upon in every GCC-member country.

“The news is coming together so it looks like a wave of mergers and they are all related but they are not. There are different reasons at work,” said Chiro Ghosh, an analyst with Sico Bank in Bahrain.

“In most cases, it is to gain the scale and be competitive in changing markets, while in others it is strategic decision such as in the case of Saudi merger [between Saudi British Bank and Alawaal]. None of the deals are related to asset quality issues and it’s not the case of one bank coming to rescue the other one in a merger,” he said.

#Dubai’s penny stocks see mild traction

Dubai’s penny stocks see mild traction:

Small stocks, those whose prices are below Dh1, witnessed buying in the last hour of trade in Dubai, led by a Gulf Finance House (GFH) recovery after traders saw positive movement in US futures.

GFH closed more than 5 per cent higher to end at Dh0.846, after the company reassured investors that the recent fall in share prices had nothing to do with its fundamentals.

“The stock has been affected primarily due to the international and regional market pressures and margin calls that have impacted investors in the stock markets,” GFH said in a statement posted on Dubai Financial Market (DFM) website.

#Russia Warns U.S. Against Interfering in #Saudi Royal Succession - Bloomberg

Russia Warns U.S. Against Interfering in Saudi Royal Succession - Bloomberg:

Russia warned the U.S. against any effort to influence the royal succession in Saudi Arabia, offering its support to embattled Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who’s under continuing pressure over the killing of a government critic. 

President Vladimir Putin’s envoy to the Middle East said Prince Mohammed has every right to inherit the throne when the ailing 82-year-old King Salman dies.

“Of course we are against interference. The Saudi people and leadership must decide such questions themselves,” Mikhail Bogdanov, who is also deputy foreign minister, said in an interview in Moscow on Tuesday. “The King made a decision and I can’t even imagine on what grounds someone in America will interfere in such an issue and think about who should rule Saudi Arabia, now or in the future. This is a Saudi matter.”

WTI Crude Climbs Amid Broader U.S. Stock Market Recovery: Chart - Bloomberg

WTI Crude Climbs Amid Broader U.S. Stock Market Recovery: Chart - Bloomberg:

Despite the severely oversold signal flashed by its GTI Global Strength Indicator -- a measure of upward and downward movements of successive closing prices -- West Texas Intermediate crude had continued to fall toward $42 a barrel. But on Wednesday, the U.S. oil benchmark was back to rising for the first time in four sessions amid a hint that OPEC and its partners could meet again to discuss output curbs, and as equities advanced. “Crude is finding a bit of relief after its aggressive move lower as stocks find a footing, but at this price deck even some of the best wells are struggling to be economic,” said Bloomberg Intelligence industry analyst Mark Rossano.

Isolated #Qatar Beats Its Gulf Peers in 2018's Asset Scorecards - Bloomberg

Isolated Qatar Beats Its Gulf Peers in 2018's Asset Scorecards - Bloomberg:

It’s been a year-and-a-half since Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in a dramatic breakup. Most analysts at the time said they’d kiss and make up within months, but here we are, at the cusp of 2019, and there’s no sign of a reconciliation.

Even though Qatar is the one that’s been isolated, its assets have fared better this year than other Gulf nations.

The Gas-rich state has offset the impact of the embargo on its economy, prompting Moody’s Investors Service in July to reverse last year’s cut in its credit-rating outlook. Doha’s credit risk plunged and foreign investors piled into its stocks at the fastest pace since at least 2016.

#Qatar launches permanent shipping line with #Oman, #Kuwait | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Qatar launches permanent shipping line with Oman, Kuwait | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Qatar has opened a permanent shipping line with its GCC neighbours Oman and Kuwait on Monday, 24 December.

In a 20-minute journey, the shipping operations will take place through Doha’s Hamad Port, Oman’s Sohar port and Shuwaikh port in Kuwait, the gas-rich nation said.

With a capacity of 250 passenger rooms, the ship will transport both goods and passengers.

The ship also features cinema hall, a games hall, a free market, restaurants and cafes.

#Iran says private exporters had no problem selling its oil | Reuters

Iran says private exporters had no problem selling its oil | Reuters:

Iran said on Wednesday private exporters have had “no problems” selling Iranian oil, and 3 million barrels of crude could be sold soon to non-government traders, state media reported, despite U.S. sanctions targeting Tehran’s oil sales.

Iran began selling crude oil to private companies for export in late October, just ahead of U.S. sanctions on sectors including oil which came into effect in November.

“Those who bought oil on the bourse have been able to export and there have been no problems in this regard,” the state news agency IRNA quoted Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh as saying without giving further details about the exports.

UPDATE 1-Saudi Aramco creates fuel retail subsidiary | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Saudi Aramco creates fuel retail subsidiary | Reuters:

Saudi Aramco is establishing a domestic fuel retailing subsidiary as part of the national oil company’s drive to expand beyond crude oil production into downstream businesses.

The new firm, Saudi Aramco Retail Co, will create a network of filling stations within Saudi Arabia to sell automotive fuels, Aramco said on Wednesday, without giving details of the size, cost or time-frame for the network.

In April, Aramco said it had signed a memorandum of understanding with French firm Total to evaluate the feasibility of jointly buying a retail service station network in Saudi Arabia.

Exclusive: New allegations against Ghosn concern payments to #Saudi businessman - sources | Reuters

Exclusive: New allegations against Ghosn concern payments to Saudi businessman - sources | Reuters:

Fresh misconduct allegations brought by Tokyo prosecutors against ousted Nissan Chairman Carlos Ghosn center on the use of company funds to pay a Saudi businessman who is believed to have helped him out of financial difficulties, two company sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Prosecutors arrested Ghosn for a third time on Friday, accusing him of aggravated breach of trust in transferring personal investment losses to the automaker.

The prosecutors’ statement said they believe that around October 2008, Ghosn was trying to deal with losses on paper of 1.85 billion yen ($16.6 million) incurred on a swap contract he had with a bank which it did not name.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf moves sideways despite oil tumble, banks boost Egypt | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf moves sideways despite oil tumble, banks boost Egypt | Reuters:

Gulf stock markets largely moved sideways on Wednesday despite Brent oil’s decline below $50 a barrel for the first time since July 2017, while Egypt’s blue-chip index rose sharply, led by rebounding bank shares.

Oil’s 15 percent tumble this month, if sustained, threatens major damage to the state finances of most Gulf countries, which could reduce governments’ ability to spend and could revive investor concerns about their financial stability.

But Gulf stock markets have held up relatively well in the last several weeks, outperforming MSCI’s emerging market index . The Saudi stock index slid just 0.1 percent on Wednesday, as did Qatar’s index.

Mideast Stocks: Gulf edges down, losses minor despite Brent oil below $50 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Gulf edges down, losses minor despite Brent oil below $50 | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Major Gulf stock markets edged lower early on Wednesday because of sagging oil prices and global bourses, but the region's losses were minor despite Brent oil's decline below $50 a barrel for the first time since July 2017.

Oil's 15 percent tumble this month, if it is sustained, threatens major damage to the state finances of most Gulf countries, which could reduce governments' ability to spend on growth and revive investor concern about their financial stability.

As a result, the cost of insuring Saudi Arabian sovereign debt against default has rise in recent days to its highest levels this year, while the Saudi riyal has weakened against the dollar in the forwards market.

Oil in London Dips Below $50 as Market Chaos Counters OPEC+ Cuts - Bloomberg

Oil in London Dips Below $50 as Market Chaos Counters OPEC+ Cuts - Bloomberg:

Oil in London fell below $50 a barrel for the first time since July 2017 as broader financial market turmoil and worries over U.S. supply countered signs the OPEC+ coalition may extend or deepen output cuts.

Futures fell as much as 1.1 percent, after Monday’s 6.2 percent drop. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak tried to reassure investors, saying the market will be more stable in the first half of 2019 due to the deal between OPEC and its allies to cut output, and that producers will react if the situation changes. Meanwhile, S&P 500 Index futures fluctuated Wednesday while the benchmark U.S. gauge is at the brink of sliding into a bear market.

Oil has plunged more than 40 percent from a four-year high in October on the prospect of a supply glut. While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia agreed to cut output early this month, investors are skeptical the reductions will be sufficient to dent supplies, with U.S. producers pumping near a record. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s trade war with China and the Federal Reserve’s policy on interest rates have clouded the outlook for global economic growth.

#Dubai's Drake & Scull says chairman, CEO have resigned | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Dubai's Drake & Scull says chairman, CEO have resigned | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Embattled Dubai-based contractor Drake & Scull has said that both its chairman and its chief executive have resigned from their posts following a board meeting on Tuesday.

The company said in a statement to the Dubai stock exchange that Abdullah Atatreh, who was appointed as chairman in September last year, would be replaced by independent board member Obaid Bin Touq, with a new independent board member, Abdullah Al Matrooshi, being voted onto the company's board. It did not give a reason for Atatreh's departure.

Meanwhile, the company also said that Yousef Al Mulla, who was only appointed to his post in August, had also resigned.

World's largest floating LNG platform starts production in Australia | Reuters

World's largest floating LNG platform starts production in Australia | Reuters:

Royal Dutch Shell said on Wednesday it has begun output at its Prelude floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility in Australia, the world’s largest floating production structure and the last of a wave of eight LNG projects built in the country over the last decade.

Though the project started up later and cost more than originally estimated, it is expected to further cement Australia’s lead as the world’s biggest LNG exporter, after the country took the crown in November.

In a statement, Shell said wells have now been opened at the Prelude facility, located 475 kilometers north-north east of Broome in western Australia. This means Prelude has now entered start-up and ramp-up, the initial phase of production where gas and condensate - which is an ultra-light form of crude oil - is produced and moved through the facility.

#Sharjah govt plans to invest about $517 mln in Invest Bank | Reuters

Sharjah govt plans to invest about $517 mln in Invest Bank | Reuters:

The Government of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates will invest up to 1.9 billion dirhams ($517.32 million) in struggling Invest Bank, the lender said on Wednesday, disclosing details of the two-stage investment plan. The Sharjah government stepped in to support Invest Bank, one of the smaller banks in the UAE, after it was hit by recent high levels of bad loans, partly due to its exposure to the troubled real estate and construction market.

The Government of Sharjah will buy 1.59 billion shares of Invest Bank for 1.115 billion dirhams, or 50.07 percent of the total issued share capital of the bank, Invest Bank said.

This is to enable Invest Bank to maintain capital adequacy after booking provisions of 1.266 billion dirhams in the third and fourth quarter financial statements, it said.

Kazakhstan: OPEC, non-OPEC nations must stabilize oil prices in first-quarter | Reuters

Kazakhstan: OPEC, non-OPEC nations must stabilize oil prices in first-quarter | Reuters:

Kazakhstan expects the participants in a pact to curb global oil output to stabilize prices in the first quarter of 2019 and make a joint statement next month “in order to support the market”, Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev said on Wednesday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, along with non-OPEC members such as Russia, agreed this month to begin curbing production in January to reduce a supply glut that has pressured benchmark crude prices to their lowest in more than a year.

“All these countries must stabilize the situation with energetic measures in January-February-March, prices must stabilize and enter a more or less positive range,” Bozumbayev told a briefing.

Tuesday 25 December 2018

#UAE bank assets rise 6% to Dh2.85tn led by growth from conventional lenders - The National

UAE bank assets rise 6% to Dh2.85tn led by growth from conventional lenders - The National:

The UAE’s bank assets rose 6 per cent to Dh2.85 trillion in the first 11 months of this year from the end of December 2017, led by growth in conventional bank assets, latest Central Bank figures showed.

Conventional banking assets rose 6.1 per cent to Dh2.275tn in the 11 eleven months of this year from the end of December 2017, while Islamic bank assets increased 5.3 per cent to Dh579.2 billion during the same period, according to the figures posted on state-run news agency Wam.

Conventional banking assets accounted for more than three-quarters (79.7 per cent) of total banking assets in the country as of end of November, while Sharia-compliant assets accounted for a fifth (20.3 per cent) o the total. There are 60 banks operating in the UAE, and eight of them are Sharia-compliant.

Exclusive: Former Abraaj venture Wamda Capital to launch second $70m VC fund - The National

Exclusive: Former Abraaj venture Wamda Capital to launch second $70m VC fund - The National:

Wamda Capital, the venture capital company that emerged out of an entrepreneurship platform set up by Abraaj Capital, is planning the first close of its second $70 million (Dh257m) investment fund in early 2019, a partner at the firm said.

The Dubai VC company, which launched an inaugural $70m fund in 2015, is courting the same set of investors but hopes to attract new partners, said Fares Ghandour. The first fund, which is estimated to have allotted at least 80 per cent of its money by the end of this year, counted: now-embattled private equity firm Abraaj; the International Finance Corporation, an arm of the World Bank; Kuwaiti telco, the Zain Group; family offices; and other partners, as investors.

The new vehicle “will be the continuation of funding for the young demographic shift that is happening in these markets and companies that are looking to solve challenges for the up and coming, connected generation,” said Mr Ghandour.

Is off-plan losing its shine? #Dubai #UAE

Is off-plan losing its shine?:

The past few years saw a sharp rise in off-plan property sales across Dubai, driven in part by competitive prices and flexible payment terms offered by developers. Off-plan sales accounted for 58 per cent of transactions in 2016, increasing to 67 per cent last year, according to research by ValuStrat. As of the third quarter this year, off-plan sales already account for 60 per cent of transactions.

Off-plan particularly dominated property sales in established communities such as Downtown Dubai, which saw 85 per cent of total sales in the third quarter being off-plan, Business Bay (84 per cent) and Remraam (75 per cent), ValuStrat further reported. According to analysts, this reflects a general sentiment of buyers and underlines the most glaring concerns towards off-plan units.

“There are still various uncertainties surrounding the off-plan market, which means it also has risks,” said Jenny Weidling, research and advisory manager at Asteco. “Delays remain an issue, with developers having limited obligations to pay penalties if the project is not handed over on time. This causes issues for buyers who are end users and are looking to live in their units, rather than rent them out or sell them as an investment, since any delay can affect their ability to vacate their current property, which may be rented.”

#SaudiArabia Plans Spate of Water Project Privatizations in 2019 - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Plans Spate of Water Project Privatizations in 2019 - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia plans to tender or award six water-related projects in 2019 as it pushes ahead with a privatization program that got off to a slow start.

The cabinet recently approved the tendering of seven desalination and wastewater projects. One was awarded this week, three are in various stages of tender process and three more will be offered to investors next year, the government’s National Center for Privatization and PPP said in a statement.

So far, more than 40 percent of the bids have come from international companies relying heavily on financing from international banks, the center said. It didn’t provide details on the monetary value of the water projects, but said the total value of all public-private partnerships to be tendered by 2020 is expected to be 24 billion to 28 billion riyals ($6.4 billion to $7.5 billion).

#Saudi's SAFCO seeks banks for role in acquisition of SABIC stakes in agri-nutrients businesses | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi's SAFCO seeks banks for role in acquisition of SABIC stakes in agri-nutrients businesses | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia Fertilizers Co (SAFCO) has invited banks to pitch for an advisory role in its potential acquisition of stakes in five agri-nutrients businesses now held by Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC), two sources told Reuters.

SAFCO wants to buy SABIC's stakes in Al-Jubail Fertilizer Company (Al-Bayroni), National Fertilizer Company (Ibn al-Baytar), Gulf Petrochemicals Industries Company, Ma'aden Phosphate Company, and Ma'aden Wa'ad al Shamal Phosphate Company, said the sources, who declined to be named due to commercial sensitivities.

SABIC owns 43 percent in SAFCO. Neither company responded to requests for comment.

Mideast Stocks: Global market woes hurt Gulf, merger talk sends Riyad Bank to 4-year high | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Global market woes hurt Gulf, merger talk sends Riyad Bank to 4-year high | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The Saudi market fell on Tuesday, as plunging oil prices pressured petrochemical stocks, while Riyad Bank was the top gainer, reaching a four-year high after saying it was in merger talks with National Commercial Bank (NCB).

The Dubai index was the sole gainer of the session, inching up on the back of rises in its banking shares, with most major Gulf bourses slipping on tepid global sentiment and weak oil prices.

Oil prices plunged to their lowest level in more than a year on Monday, as fears of an economic slowdown weighed on the market.

#Iran budget proposals point to revenue decline | Financial Times

Iran budget proposals point to revenue decline | Financial Times:

Iran’s proposed state budget for the coming year points to a 3.7 per cent decline in revenues in rial terms, as US sanctions continue to bite.

The budget bill — proposed by president Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday, but yet to be approved by parliament — forecasts 2,086tn rials in revenues for the next Iranian fiscal year — down from the 2,161tn rials forecast for mid-March when the financial year ends.

“This budget is drafted based on the impact of sanctions while the economy will definitely shrink next year,” said one economic analyst. “The government has not only taken the current sanctions into consideration but is preparing for tougher sanctions to come.”

Four Charts That Show the Impact of #SaudiArabia's New Mega Bank - Bloomberg

Four Charts That Show the Impact of Saudi Arabia's New Mega Bank - Bloomberg:

Two of Saudi Arabia’s biggest banks are exploring a merger that will dwarf their competitors and could prompt other lenders to combine and fight for market share in the oil-rich kingdom.

The proposed merger of National Commercial Bank and Riyad Bank, the first and fourth biggest Saudi banks, would create an institution with $182 billion in assets. The giant lender could gain an edge against local and foreign rivals in an economy that continues to suffer from tight liquidity following the plunge in oil prices in 2014.

Here is look at the impact of the possible merger in four charts:

Nikkei Enters Bear Market to Extend Global Rout: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg

Nikkei Enters Bear Market to Extend Global Rout: Markets Wrap - Bloomberg:

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid into a bear market, as a global equity rout continued unabated in the last week of the year, with renewed turmoil in Washington rattling investors. Israeli stocks sank for a fourth day, while the yen and Japanese bonds rose.

The Japanese benchmark fell 5 percent on Tuesday, widening its drop to 21 percent from its Oct. 2 peak, taking its cue from the S&P 500’s worst trading session before the Christmas holiday. Chinese shares, the other major Asian market open on Tuesday, also declined as investors shrugged off a pledge by the government to do more to support companies.

Investors looking to Washington for signs of stability that might bolster confidence instead got further unnerved on Monday. President Donald Trump blasted the Federal Reserve, blaming the central bank for the three-month equity rout days after Bloomberg reported he inquired about firing the chairman, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sought to assuage rising anxiety with a hastily called meeting of top financial regulators.

Rouhani presents Iran budget, says U.S. sanctions to hit lives, growth | Reuters

Rouhani presents Iran budget, says U.S. sanctions to hit lives, growth | Reuters:

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday presented a $47 billion state budget, about a third of it consisting of subsidies for low income groups, saying U.S. sanctions would affect people’s lives and economic growth but not bring the government to its knees.

U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of a multilateral nuclear deal with Iran in May and reimposed sanctions on it, including on its vital oil industry.

“America’s goal is to bring Iran’s Islamic system to its knees... and it will fail in this, but sanctions will no doubt affect people’s lives, and the country’s development and economic growth,” Rouhani told parliament in a speech carried live on state television.

#UAE's Empower settles $728 mln loan in full- statement | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE's Empower settles $728 mln loan in full- statement | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

United Arab Emirates-based district cooling firm Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) has settled a $728 million loan, a company statement said on Tuesday.

"Empower has fully settled its term loan facilities for a total amount of AED 2.67 billion ($728 million) and the company will have zero debt in its books at the end of the year," the statement added.

Mideast Stocks: Riyad Bank jumps to 4-year high on deal talk, oil drags down Gulf | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Riyad Bank jumps to 4-year high on deal talk, oil drags down Gulf | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The Saudi stock market fell on Tuesday, pressured by sliding oil prices, but Riyad Bank was one of the top gainers, hitting a four-year high after announcing merger talks with National Commercial Bank 

All major Middle Eastern markets dropped on weak oil prices and tepid global sentiment, with Dubai's index continuing to hover at a five-year low, weighed down by property stocks.

Oil prices plunged to their lowest level in more than a year on Monday, as fears of an economic slowdown weighed on the market.

Crude Spirals to 18-Month Low Amid Global Economic Concerns - Bloomberg

Crude Spirals to 18-Month Low Amid Global Economic Concerns - Bloomberg:

Crude fell to the lowest level in a year and a half as concerns over the global economy and turbulence in Washington overshadowed signals from OPEC that it may deepen output cuts.

Futures slid 6.7 percent in a shortened Christmas Eve session in New York, joining a rout in U.S. stocks as investors assess the threat from a government shutdown. The latest tumble left crude prices down 44 percent since reaching a four-year peak in October -- including a 19 percent falloff since OPEC and Russia announced major output cuts earlier this month.

“As stocks get taken down and there is nervousness across financial markets, it’s just undercutting prices here,” said John Kilduff, a partner at New York-based hedge fund Again Capital LLC. "The demand outlook continues to be called into question."

Sotheby’s in Talks to Help Saudi Prince Build Desert Art Oasis - Bloomberg #MbS

Sotheby’s in Talks to Help Saudi Prince Build Desert Art Oasis - Bloomberg:

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has set multiple ambitious agendas for his desert kingdom. Turning it into a major cultural destination may end up being one of the highest-profile.

For part of the plan, the Saudi government has turned to Sotheby’s, the biggest U.S. auction house, and Allan Schwartzman, the co-chairman of its fine art division. He rose to fame by creating an arts dreamland in the Brazilian jungle for a mining magnate who was later convicted of money laundering.

The Saudi cultural center would take root in Al-Ula, an archaeologically rich region in the northwest of the country. There, the Nabateans, a formerly nomadic tribe of  skilled craftsman and traders, carved elaborate buildings out of sandstone more than 2,000 years ago. The region contains an ancient city, Mada’in Salih, which was Saudi Arabia’s first Unesco World Heritage Site.

Saudi Said to Weigh More Bank Mergers as NCB Announces Talks - Bloomberg

Saudi Said to Weigh More Bank Mergers as NCB Announces Talks - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia is exploring potential mergers to boost its financial services industry after the combination of Saudi British Bank and Alawwal Bank, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The kingdom’s main sovereign wealth fund, which owns stakes in some of the biggest lenders, is weighing which banks could be merged to increase scale and competition, the people said, asking not to be identified because the talks are private. Authorities are also likely to look favorably upon potential mergers among banks outside the state’s control.

Shortly after the Bloomberg report, National Commercial Bank, the kingdom’s largest, announced the start of merger talks with Riyad Bank. A deal would create a lender with $182 billion in assets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Other lenders weighing possible mergers include Banque Saudi Fransi, whose largest shareholder is Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s Kingdom Holding Co., Al Rajhi Bank and Samba Financial, the people said. The deliberations about consolidation are preliminary and may not result in a transaction, the people said.

Ghana's first oil exploration licensing round attracts global majors | Reuters

Ghana's first oil exploration licensing round attracts global majors | Reuters:

Sixteen oil and gas firms have submitted applications for one or more of five Ghanaian offshore blocks in the West African country’s first exploration licensing round, its energy ministry said.

The interest is a major vote of confidence in Ghana, which is keen to unlock more resources after it began pumping from its flagship offshore Jubilee field in 2010.

The companies that have submitted applications are Tullow Oil, Total, ENI, Cairn, Harmony Oil and Gas Corporation, ExxonMobil, CNOOC, Qatar Petroleum [QATPE.UL], BP, Vitol [VITOLV.UL], Global Petroleum Group, Aker Energy, First E&P, Kosmos, Sasol and Equinor.

Monday 24 December 2018

Oil plunges 6 percent as economic slowdown fears grip market | Reuters

Oil plunges 6 percent as economic slowdown fears grip market | Reuters:

Oil prices plunged more than 6 percent to the lowest level in more than a year on Monday, pulling back sharply late in the session as fears of an economic slowdown rattled the market.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 and global benchmark Brent LCOc1 hit their lowest levels since 2017 during the session, putting both benchmarks on track for losses of about 40 percent in the fourth quarter.

“What’s happening in the stock market is raising fears that the economy is grinding to a halt and thereby will basically kill any future oil demand,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “They’re pricing in a slowdown in the economy if not a recession with this drop."

....... U.S. crude futures CLc1 settled at $42.53 a barrel, down $3.06, or 6.7 percent. Brent crude futures settled down $3.35, or 6.2 percent, at $50.47 a barrel. The market settled early ahead of the Christmas holiday. Prices extended losses in post-settlement trade.

UPDATE 1- #SaudiArabia's biggest bank NCB in merger talks with rival Riyad | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Saudi Arabia's biggest bank NCB in merger talks with rival Riyad | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s National Commercial Bank (NCB), the kingdom’s biggest lender by assets, has begun preliminary discussions to merge with smaller rival Riyad Bank, the two lenders said on Monday.

A merger would further extend NCB’s lead over its closest rivals including Al Rajhi Bank, by boosting its assets by almost a third to 685 billion riyals ($183 billion)

The move comes two months after Saudi British Bank (SABB) and smaller rival Alawwal Bank agreed a binding deal to create Saudi Arabia’s third-biggest lender in the first major tie-up for the country’s banking sector in recent times.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi banks rebound after tax deal, #Dubai hits 5-year low | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi banks rebound after tax deal, Dubai hits 5-year low | Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s stock index rose on Monday as banks rebounded after a sell-off triggered by news of a deal with tax authorities, while Dubai dropped to a five-year low, pressured by a slide in Emirates NBD.

The Saudi index was up 0.4 percent with Samba Financial Group gaining 1.7 percent and Alinma Bank adding 2.0 percent. Ten of 12 banking stocks rose.

The sector weakened on Sunday after banks agreed with Islamic tax authorities to resolve a dispute over increased liabilities that will result in one-off payments, although many banks had already made provisions for much of the liabilities.

Elon Musk's Teslas in #Dubai: Driven by the State and the Rich - Bloomberg

Elon Musk's Teslas in Dubai: Driven by the State and the Rich - Bloomberg:

Dubai has ambitious goals for electric cars. Early adopters get free parking, no tolls and discounts on registration fees. Even the power is gratis at the 200 charging stations the government installed throughout the city.

The trouble is the public is just fine without them.

The biggest buyer of electric vehicles is the government itself, dealers say, with hundreds sold in bulk to local authorities over the past few years. The few others spotted speeding up Dubai’s highways tend to be Teslas, which start at 335,730 dirhams ($91,400). Expats will splash out in this relatively low-tax city, but they often go for flashy sports cars.

Oil Gets Little Relief From OPEC's Hints That Curbs Could Deepen - Bloomberg

Oil Gets Little Relief From OPEC's Hints That Curbs Could Deepen - Bloomberg:

Oil fell toward $45 a barrel as worries over rising U.S. supplies and the global economy overshadowed signals from OPEC that it may extend or even deepen its pledged output curbs.

Futures fell 0.3 percent in New York, after declining 11 percent last week -- the most since January 2016. Officials from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates agreed with Saudi Arabia’s expectation that the group will extend its cuts for another six months. They will have to contend with U.S. producers, which added 10 oil rigs last week, according to Baker Hughes data, even as the nation’s output stays near record high levels.

#UAE banks' digital drive causes upheaval in jobs market | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE banks' digital drive causes upheaval in jobs market | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The digitisation drive among banks to use new technologies to replace routine roles with apps and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled technology is already underway in the United Arab Emirates, with Standard Chartered and Mashreq Bank among the firms to lay off staff as a result, but its impact will take some time to be felt throughout the sector, experts have told Zawya.

Standard Chartered confirmed to Reuters that it was cutting jobs in its retail division as more customers migrate to digital services.

Meanwhile, Zawya understands that Mashreq Bank has also recently laid off a large number of sales and call centre staff. The bank declined to comment on the number of jobs lost, but it said these posts were being replaced with "an equivalent number of relationship managers, product management and digital banking" roles.

Brent crude edges up, but concern over demand limits gains | Reuters

Brent crude edges up, but concern over demand limits gains | Reuters:

Oil prices edged up on Monday after evidence that a recent fall to 15-month lows may be affecting output in the United States, the world’s largest producer, although concern about the outlook for demand tempered gains.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 12 cents at $53.94 a barrel by 0858 GMT, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 lost 3 cents to $45.56.

Brent fell 11 percent last week and hit its lowest since September 2017, while U.S. futures slid to their lowest since July 2017, bringing the decline in the two contracts to 35 percent so far this quarter.

Mideast Stocks: Saudi banks stabilise after tax settlement, #Dubai sinks | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Saudi banks stabilise after tax settlement, Dubai sinks | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Most Gulf stock markets moved little early on Monday and Saudi Arabian banking shares were largely stable after some dropped on the previous day in response to news of a deal with tax authorities. Two blue chips dragged Dubai's market down sharply.

The Saudi index was up 0.1 percent after 80 minutes with Al Rajhi Bank flat and Samba Financial Group adding 0.5 percent. Five bank stocks were higher, two lower and the rest flat.

Saudi banks agreed with Islamic tax authorities to resolve a dispute over increased liabilities that will result in one-off payments, although many banks had already made provisions for much of the liabilities.

#UAE traders weigh to take pain in short-term for a long-term gain

UAE traders weigh to take pain in short-term for a long-term gain:

UAE traders in stock markets, who may be sitting on losses, are in two minds whether to book losses and sit on cash or wait for a longer term for future gains.

Analysts feel there might be more pain in the short-term because of weak fundamentals of real estate and banking stocks.

“There is a fear in the minds of people, whether the stocks will go lower from here, and how much of downside it has, and how much they can withstand to avoid any margin calls,” said an analyst who did not wish to be named.

‘Dumb-money’ for Saudi stocks won’t be enough to aid market

‘Dumb-money’ for Saudi stocks won’t be enough to aid market:

While billions of dollars will flow into Saudi Arabia with its inclusion in MSCI Inc’s emerging-market benchmark in June, don’t count on the passive money to revive the market’s fortunes, says Eaton Vance Corp.

Government-related funds, which appeared to have propped up Saudi equities following the murder of columnist Jamal Khashoggi in October, will probably become sellers next year to investors tracking the MSCI index – in classic buy-low, sell-high style, according to the Boston-based money manager. 

“We would expect a dumb-money passive bid to purchase Saudi equities, regardless of their valuation, which, I might add, is not particularly cheap,” said Marshall Stocker, a Boston-based portfolio manager at Eaton Vance, which oversees about $439bn. “I do not think the Saudi stock market will trade up upon inclusion. Instead, the Saudi state may prove ingenious in selling their holdings to index funds.”

Here’s what could go right (and wrong) for Gulf bonds next year

Here’s what could go right (and wrong) for Gulf bonds next year:

The performance of nearly $340bn of Eurobonds in the Gulf Arab region depends on what the Federal Reserve does next.

Securities from the Gulf Co-operation Council are poised for their worst year since 2013, and could face another painful 12 months if the US maintains its pace of rate increases. That, and the risk of more declines in oil prices, will keep investors on tenterhooks, although inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co’s emerging-market bond indexes starting January will likely attract billions of dollars.

The good news is that investors are now reducing bets on the number of rate increases in 2019 as they weigh the prospect of slowing global economic growth, fading US fiscal stimulus and volatile financial markets.

Sunday 23 December 2018

#AbuDhabi's Bank Merger Is Seen to Result in 1,000 Job Cuts - Bloomberg

Abu Dhabi's Bank Merger Is Seen to Result in 1,000 Job Cuts - Bloomberg:

A proposed three-way bank merger in Abu Dhabi may lead to about a thousand jobs being cut, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

Talks among Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Union National Bank PJSC and privately-held Al Hilal Bank are at an advanced stage, the people said on condition of anonymity because the topic is private. The lenders are working on issues such as valuation and are conducting due diligence, two of the people said. 

No final agreements have been reached and the discussions may not result in a transaction, the people said. A combination of would create a lender with about $115 billion in assets. The potential tie-up would create the Gulf Cooperation Council’s fifth-largest bank.

OPEC Is in `Whatever It Takes' Moment to Prop Up Oil Prices - Bloomberg

OPEC Is in `Whatever It Takes' Moment to Prop Up Oil Prices - Bloomberg:

OPEC hasn’t even started implementing its new six-month agreement to cut output, and already members responsible for most of the reductions have pledged to extend or even deepen it.

Officials from Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates agreed with Saudi Arabia’s expectation that the group, along with Russia and other oil producers, will extend the agreement for another six months. The U.A.E.’s energy minister, while stressing that the 1.2-million barrel-a-day cut will clear an inventory buildup in the first half, hinted additional curbs could be discussed.

“The planned cuts have been carefully studied, but if it doesn’t work, we always have the option to hold an extraordinary OPEC meeting and we have done so in the past,” Suhail Al Mazrouei, who is also OPEC president, said in Kuwait. “If we are required to extend for another six months, we will, if it requires more, we always discuss and come up with the right balance.”

Saudi Arabia to privatize Jeddah airport by first half of 2019- authority | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi Arabia to privatize Jeddah airport by first half of 2019- authority | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) plans to appoint a private company to manage King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah by the first half of next year, the authority confirmed to Zawya by email.

Earlier this year, the GACA terminated a concession agreement with Singapore's Changi Airports International and Saudi Naval Services to operate the airport in Jeddah, after awarding the contract last year for a period of 20 years.

King Abdulaziz International Airport (KAIA) witnessed a record number of passengers in 2017 reaching 34 million, a 9.4 percent increase over the year earlier, Arab News reported, citing figures from a KAIA report.

#Bahrain's annual GDP growth slows to 1.6 pct in Q3 | Reuters

Bahrain's annual GDP growth slows to 1.6 pct in Q3 | Reuters:

Bahrain’s annual growth in gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, slowed in the third quarter of this year as both the oil and non-oil sectors lost momentum, the government’s statistics website showed on Sunday.

GDP grew 1.6 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter, slowing from 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The oil sector shrank 1.5 percent in the third quarter, while the non-oil sector grew 2.4 percent.

OPEC+ will hold extra meeting if output cuts 'not enough': UAE | Reuters

OPEC+ will hold extra meeting if output cuts 'not enough': UAE | Reuters:

OPEC and allied oil producers are ready to hold an extraordinary meeting and will do what is needed if the current cut in oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day does not balance the market next year, the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister said on Sunday.

Extending the output agreement signed in early December will not be a problem and producers will do as the market demands, Suhail al-Mazrouei told a news conference at a gathering of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries in Kuwait.

“What if the 1.2 million barrels of cuts are not enough? I am telling you that if it is not, we will meet and see what is enough and we will do it,” Mazrouei said.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi banks decline on tax payments, Wall Street's decline weighs on Gulf | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi banks decline on tax payments, Wall Street's decline weighs on Gulf | Reuters:

Saudi shares recovered some ground on Sunday after a sell-off in the banking sector when lenders said they had reached a deal with Islamic tax authorities to resolve a dispute over increased liabilities that would still result in big one-off payments.

Sentiment across Gulf markets was hurt by the plunge in Wall Street stocks on Friday as the U.S. government shutdown weighed on global markets.

The Saudi index opened more than 2 percent lower. At 0731 GMT, it was trading 1.6 percent down. But by the close, the benchmark ended down by 0.3 percent.