Monday 9 December 2019

Lower Oil Production Will Cause #Saudi Budget Deficit To Balloon | OilPrice.com

Lower Oil Production Will Cause Saudi Budget Deficit To Balloon | OilPrice.com:

Saudi Arabia is predicting that its budget deficit will balloon to US$50 billion next year as low oil prices and lowered production eat into the Kingdom’s oil revenue, according an official budget released Monday by the Saudi Arabian government. 


The anticipated 2020 budget deficit would be up $15 billion on 2019 and will come even as Saudi Arabia plans to cut spending next year by 7.8%, to $272 billion. Revenues are expected to be down by 14.6%, according to the official statement. 


The 2020 budget deficit will next year, then, be 6.5% of its gross domestic product, up from 4.7% in 2019.

The increase to the oil-rich Kingdom’s budget deficit comes as no surprise, as oil prices have fallen sharply from the days of $100 oil, and its oil production has taken a huge hit over the last year as it tried to do most of the production cutting for other members who were not quite as diligent with the cuts. Next year, too, is expected to see even less oil production for the Kingdom, with Saudi Arabia agreeing to even lower production figure, and then offering to produce 400,000 bpd less than that figure.

#Saudi Wealth Fund Leans Toward Spending Aramco Windfall Locally - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Fund Leans Toward Spending Aramco Windfall Locally - Bloomberg:

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund expects to spend “a lot” of the $26 billion proceeds from the sale of shares in Saudi Aramco in the domestic economy as it shifts focus toward high-impact local investments, Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan said.

Asked how the Public Investment Fund would use the windfall from the Aramco initial public offering, Jadaan told Bloomberg in an interview that “a lot of their allocation will go into the local economy, sectors that are promising, sectors that are large, require a large investment which the private sector cannot really invest on their own.”

Selling a stake in oil giant Aramco is the first major government privatization since Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, announced plans for an overhaul of the Saudi economy in 2016. The sale is the biggest IPO ever, and means the world’s most valuable listed company will be an oil company traded on the Saudi stock exchange and not a U.S. technology giant.

#Qatar Airways to take 60% stake in new Rwandan international airport - Reuters

Qatar Airways to take 60% stake in new Rwandan international airport - Reuters:

Qatar Airways has agreed to take a 60% stake in a new $1.3 billion international airport in Rwanda, the state-run Rwanda Development Board said on Twitter on Monday.

The board said a first phase of construction would provide facilities for 7 million passengers a year in the Bugesera district, about 25 km south east of the capital Kigali. A second phase, expected to be completed by 2032, would double capacity to 14 million passengers a year.

The country’s infrastructure minister Claver Gatete told a news conference that a construction company was still being sought to build the airport, and that once work starts, the first phase would take five years to complete.

Qatar Airways declined to immediately comment outside of normal business hours.

#Saudi prince's ambitions hinge on triumphant Aramco sale

Saudi prince's ambitions hinge on triumphant Aramco sale:

Saudi Arabia is expected to set a new record for the largest stock flotation in history on Wednesday with the sale of part of Aramco, the state-owned oil company valued at $1.7 trillion. 

The offering’s success is crucial to the ambitious plan by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to overhaul Saudi Arabia’s economy and wean it off its reliance on oil revenue for survival.

The company is looking to raise $29.4 billion from selling a 1.7% stake on the local Saudi exchange, making it the world’s biggest ever initial public offering. Prince Mohammed had envisioned an even bigger stock market debut for the kingdom’s crown jewel. The aim is to attract foreign investment to rapidly create jobs for millions of young Saudis entering the workforce as he prepares to inherit the throne. 

The government has traditionally been the primary employer of Saudis, but lower oil prices, a budget deficit and a large young population mean the private sector must expand to absorb new entrants into the workforce to keep unemployment from rising beyond 12%.

#Saudi Aramco IPO proceeds rise to $29.4 billion after option exercised: TV - Reuters

Saudi Aramco IPO proceeds rise to $29.4 billion after option exercised: TV - Reuters:

The proceeds from Saudi Aramco’s record initial public offering have risen to $29.4 billion after the oil company exercised an option to sell 15% more stock, an executive at one of the banks leading the deal told Al Arabiya news channel on Monday.

Wassim Al Khatib, head of investment banking at the investment arm of Saudi Arabia’s biggest bank, National Commercial Bank (1180.SE), said the state-controlled oil giant had exercised the so-called over-allotment option.

Aramco’s main IPO raised $25.6 billion on Thursday.

“The final number of shares sold is 3.450 billion shares, and the final value of the deal is $29.4 billion,” Khatib said.

Aramco is listing its shares on Wednesday on the Saudi exchange after completing the largest IPO on record.

Breakingviews - Aramco: the IPO that succeeded and failed - Reuters

Breakingviews - Aramco: the IPO that succeeded and failed - Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s sale of its crown jewel always risked becoming a Greek tragedy. Ever since the Gulf Kingdom decided in 2016 on a public stock offering to sell 5% of Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil producer and its main source of revenue, the interests of the seller and the anticipated horde of international investors have been on a collision course. A crash duly ensued.

Aramco’s ill-starred listing has been through four distinct stages. The genesis of the current strife came in 2017 when Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, insisted on a $2 trillion price tag for Aramco and set investment banks and exchanges around the world competing to make that happen.

That led to stasis, as the difficulties of achieving such a valuation and accommodating Aramco’s myriad environmental, social and governance headaches on a global bourse became clear. In mid-2018, things went quiet. A few months later, the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by the kingdom’s agents made investing in Saudi assets verboten.

#Saudi 2020 budget forecasts slight drop in spending as deficit widens - Reuters

Saudi 2020 budget forecasts slight drop in spending as deficit widens - Reuters:

Saudi Arabia announced a 1.02 trillion riyal ($272.00 billion) budget for 2020 on Monday, a slight fall in spending that reversed three years of expenditure increases intended to spur growth. 

Revenues in 2020 are forecast at 833 billion riyals, widening the budget deficit to 187 billion riyals, or 6.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with a projected deficit of 131 billion riyals, or 4.7% of GDP, in 2019, according to the budget document.


Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan told reporters the 2020 budget was conservative on revenues because of the global economic outlook, but the government would continue to pay a cost of living allowance to citizens.

The Saudi state news agency SPA quoted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as saying: “The 2020 budget comes amid challenges, risks and protectionist policies facing the global economy, which requires flexibility in managing public finances.”

COLUMN-Oil markets hit by profit-taking ahead of China tariff deadline: Kemp - Reuters

COLUMN-Oil markets hit by profit-taking ahead of China tariff deadline: Kemp - Reuters:

Hedge funds scaled back their bets on higher oil prices last week, with futures and options markets hit by a wave of selling after a jump in positions the week before.

While much of that can be put down to profit taking, the shaky economic outlook and rapidly approaching deadline for more U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods means fund managers are likely to moderate their bullishness for the time being.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 107 million barrels in the six major futures and options contracts linked to petroleum prices in the week to Dec. 3 (tmsnrt.rs/357podI).

That reversed three-quarters of the 144 million barrels purchased the previous week, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most of Gulf drops; bank shares lift #Saudi index - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most of Gulf drops; bank shares lift Saudi index - Reuters:

Most Gulf stock markets were in the red on
Monday with Qatar leading losses as oil prices fell, while gains
in banking shares supported the Saudi index.

Oil prices dropped on Monday after data showed Chinese
exports declined for a fourth straight month, sending jitters
through a market already concerned about damage to global demand
by the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

In Saudi Arabia, the benchmark index rose a further
0.3%, a day after it saw its biggest gain in a year. 

On Sunday, the index climbed 2.4% as the kingdom spearheaded
a deal on Friday where OPEC and its allies agreed to extend
production cuts by 500,000 barrels per day to support oil
prices.

Non-Saudi buyers got 23% of Aramco IPO institutional tranche: Al Arabiya TV - Reuters

Non-Saudi buyers got 23% of Aramco IPO institutional tranche: Al Arabiya TV - Reuters:

Non-Saudi investors were allocated 23% of the institutional tranche of Saudi Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO), an executive at one of the lead banks on the deal told the Al Arabiya news channel on Monday.

Wassim Al Khatib, head of investment banking at National Commercial Bank (1180.SE) also said the Saudi Public Pension Agency received an allocation equivalent to 11.5% of the Aramco IPO institutional tranche.

State-owned Aramco (2222.SE) is expected to list 1.5% of its shares on the Saudi exchange later this week in a deal worth $25.6 billion.

Moscow is being forced to change its energy strategy | Financial Times

Moscow is being forced to change its energy strategy | Financial Times:

Moscow’s energy policy made a sharp transition with two developments last week. The new Power of Siberia pipeline taking gas from Russia to China was last Monday inaugurated by presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and marks a turn by Moscow to the east. Then, at the end of the week, Russian ministers attended the Opec meeting in Vienna and accepted that Russian production would be cut further as part of the cartel’s attempt to stabilise prices. The continued engagement means that Russia — having for decades pursued a fiercely independent oil policy — is now effectively Opec’s 15th member state.

Russia remains a major player in the international energy market — it was a net exporter in 2018 of more than 9m barrels a day of oil and almost 250bn cubic metres of natural gas. But it is finding itself in a buyer’s market that it cannot control.

The $26 Billion Question and What Else to Expect in #Saudi Budget - Bloomberg

The $26 Billion Question and What Else to Expect in Saudi Budget - Bloomberg:

How Aramco’s record initial public offering will affect the world’s biggest oil exporter in 2020 is the biggest question hanging over Saudi Arabia’s annual budget ahead of Monday’s presentation. 

While the government is tightening its purse strings to balance the books by 2023, the proceeds from Aramco’s IPO of almost $26 billion could be used to soften the blow to the biggest Arab economy. In 2017, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said at least half of the cash will be deployed at home by the Public Investment Fund.

Whether that spending will be earmarked for 2020 or spread over several years is something Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan may clarify at a news conference after King Salman approves the budget this afternoon. The extent of riday’s decision to cut oil output deeper next year is another issue that could affect the ministry’s economic projections.

Aramco Stock Will Have Plenty of Support When Trading Begins - Bloomberg

Aramco Stock Will Have Plenty of Support When Trading Begins - Bloomberg:

When shares of Saudi Arabia’s national oil company begin trading Wednesday after the world’s largest initial public offering, the stars will be aligned to ensure that the stock price holds up.

Aramco sold $25.6 billion of shares at 32 riyals each, the top of the range at which they were marketed, and the company had orders for $119 billion of stock. About 4.9 million individual investors, almost 15% of the kingdom’s population, applied for the shares. Saudi Arabia sold only 1.5% of the company’s capital in the IPO. 





That unsatisfied demand alone should ensure a strong first day of trading. But Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman isn’t leaving anything to chance. From bonus shares to a fat dividend, there’s a lot to underpin the price, at least initially. His half-brother, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, predicted Friday that Aramco’s value will soon surge, just after the kingdom announced production cuts that were taken as supportive for oil prices.

#Saudi's largest banks to maintain strong profitability: Moody's | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi's largest banks to maintain strong profitability: Moody's | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia's three largest banks, National Commercial Bank (NCB), Al Rajhi Bank and Saudi British Bank (SABB) will maintain strong profitability even as interest margins on their lending narrow because of falling interest rates, Moody’s Investors Service said.

The three banks have a combined market share of 47 percent of the country's banking assets.

"SABB will be hardest hit because it must also absorb the costs of its merger with smaller peer Alawwal Bank, and NCB will face a similar pressure if its planned merger with Riyad Bank is completed," said Ashraf Madani, Vice President -Senior Analyst at Moody's.

Riyad Bank and NCB announced in 2018 that they had begun discussions about a potential merger.

#Qatar state minister for foreign affairs arrives in Riyadh: QNA - Reuters

Qatar state minister for foreign affairs arrives in Riyadh: QNA - Reuters:

Qatar’s minister of state for foreign affairs arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, state news agency QNA said, for a preparatory meeting ahead of an annual summit of Gulf Cooperation Council leaders that could see a thaw in a 2-1/2-year Gulf crisis. 


Minister Soltan bin Saad Al-Muraikhi represented Qatar last year at the summit, but it is still possible that the ruling emir will attend this year’s meeting on Tuesday, following high-level Saudi-Qatari discussions to end the boycott of Qatar.

Khaldoon Al Mubarak: Building #AbuDhabi's $229bn fund for post-oil era - Arabianbusiness

Khaldoon Al Mubarak: Building Abu Dhabi's $229bn fund for post-oil era - Arabianbusiness:

For an Emirati who’s not a member of Abu Dhabi’s ruling royal family, Khaldoon Al Mubarak is remarkably influential.

Photos of him with Barack Obama and Donald Trump decorate his desk. Around the time of our interview with him in October, he’d hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin and caught up with former US Secretary of State John Kerry and retired US Army General David Petraeus.

From a tragic childhood - his father was assassinated when he was 8 years old - Al Mubarak, who turns 44 in January, has risen to become one of the ruling Al Nahyan family’s most trusted advisers. He’s also chief executive officer of Mubadala Investment, a $229 billion state-owned holding company.

His broad remit - it even includes the chairmanship of Manchester City Football Club - is particularly important now as Abu Dhabi seeks to reduce its dependence on oil and Mubadala works to diversify its investments.

#UAE's Lulu takes UK investments to nearly $400m as London hotel opens - Arabianbusiness

UAE's Lulu takes UK investments to nearly $400m as London hotel opens - Arabianbusiness:

Twenty14 Holdings, the hospitality investment arm of UAE-based Lulu Group International has completed investments of £300 million ($394 million) in the UK, with the inauguration of the Great Scotland Yard hotel in London.

The hotel opened for business on Monday and the historic property was acquired in 2015. In addition to the Great Scotland Yard, Twenty14 Holdings acquired the celebrated Waldorf Astoria Edinburgh – The Caledonian in Scotland in 2018.

The Great Scotland Yard Hotel, which is being managed by Hyatt under their The Unbound Collection by Hyatt brand, is located in the St James’s district of Westminster.

The Great Scotland Yard was once a dwelling for visiting Kings of Scotland during the Tudor period, while today the building is most famous as the former headquarters of the London Metropolitan Police force. In 1910, the building served as the British Army Recruitment Office and Royal Military Police headquarters.

Goldman raises 2020 oil price view on OPEC-led inventory tightness - Reuters

Goldman raises 2020 oil price view on OPEC-led inventory tightness - Reuters:

Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecasts for 2020, citing tighter-than-expected inventories after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to deepen oil output cuts through the first quarter of next year. 


“We are increasing our forecast for backwardation in 2020 although our long-term marginal cost forecast remains unchanged,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note dated Dec. 6.

The bank revised its Brent spot price forecast to $63 per barrel for 2020, up from a previous estimate of $60, while it also increased West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price outlook to $58.5 per barrel from $55.5.

#Saudi Aramco's shipping arm looks to charter tankers in LNG foray-sources - Reuters

Saudi Aramco's shipping arm looks to charter tankers in LNG foray-sources - Reuters:

Saudi Aramco’s shipping arm Bahri has issued an expression of interest (EOI) to charter up to 12 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers from 2025, its first foray into the superchilled fuel, industry sources said on Monday.

No further details were immediately available and Saudi Aramco declined to comment. EOIs are preliminary enquiries that may or may not turn into full-fledged orders.

According to Bahri’s website, the national shipping carrier of Saudi Arabia has six business units dealing in oil, chemicals, logistics, dry bulk, ship management and data and owns 90 vessels, including 43 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and 36 chemical/product tankers.

Oil prices slip as weak China exports highlight trade war impact - Reuters

Oil prices slip as weak China exports highlight trade war impact - Reuters:

Oil prices fell on Monday after data showed Chinese exports declined for a fourth straight month, sending jitters through a market already concerned about damage being done to global demand by the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

Brent futures LCOc1 were down 44 cents, or 0.68%, at $63.95 per barrel by 0935 GMT, after gaining about 3% last week on news that OPEC and its allies would deepen output cuts.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures CLc1 were down 48 cents, or 0.81% to $58.72 a barrel, having risen about 7% last week on the prospects for lower production from “OPEC+”, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and associated producers including Russia. 


Monday’s sudden chill came after customs data released on Sunday showed exports from the world’s second-biggest economy in November fell 1.1% from a year earlier, confounding expectations for a 1% rise in a Reuters poll.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Saudi index extends gains; other Gulf markets subdued - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi index extends gains; other Gulf markets subdued - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters:

Saudi Arabian shares rose for a second day on Monday, following the agreement between OPEC and its allies to extend output cuts by 500,000 barrels per day, while other major Gulf equities saw a sluggish start. 


Saudi Arabia spearheaded a deal on Friday where the OPEC+ group of oil producers will commit to some of the deepest output cuts in a decade aiming to avert oversupply and bolster prices.

In Saudi, the benchmark index rose 0.8%, with Saudi Basic Industries and National Commercial Bank gaining 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively.

Among other stocks, Sahara International Petrochemical leapt 4.2% to become the top gainer on the index. The firm’s board proposed to purchase up to 10% of ordinary shares and hold them as treasury shares.