Tuesday 14 January 2020

Oil edges up after five days of losses ahead of U.S.-China trade pact - Reuters

Oil edges up after five days of losses ahead of U.S.-China trade pact - Reuters:

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after five days of declines as the United States and China prepared to sign a preliminary trade deal and as Middle East tensions eased.

Brent LCOc1 futures gained 29 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $64.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 ended 15 cents, or 0.3%, higher at $58.23.

That put WTI front-month futures below the second month CLc1-CLc2 for the first time since Nov. 19, which is known in the trading industry as contango.

Analysts noted oil also found technical support after WTI fell to a five-week low of $57.72 before bouncing off the 200-day moving average.

U.S. oil output to rise in 2020 more than previously expected: EIA - Reuters

U.S. oil output to rise in 2020 more than previously expected: EIA - Reuters:

U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by 1.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to a record of 13.30 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, above its previous forecast for a rise of 930,000 bpd.

The output in 2021 is forecast to rise by 410,000 bpd to 13.71 million bpd, according to the EIA.

“We forecast U.S. crude oil production will reach new records in 2020 and 2021, driven primarily by higher production in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.

“Both global oil supply and consumption are expected to grow in 2020, with supply from non-OPEC producers, particularly the Unites States, Norway, Brazil, and Canada, more than offsetting declining production from OPEC.”

#UAE's Masdar buys 40% stake in $352m Australian project - Arabianbusiness

UAE's Masdar buys 40% stake in $352m Australian project - Arabianbusiness:

Masdar, a subsidiary of Mubadala Investment Company, has made its first investment in Australia after acquiring a 40 percent stake in the country’s second utility-scale waste-to-energy facility.

The company announced at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2020 that under the terms of the investment, Masdar and Abu Dhabi-based advisory and development firm Tribe Infrastructure Group have invested in the via their joint venture holding company, Masdar Tribe Energy Holdings Limited.

Niall Hannigan, chief financial officer of Masdar, and Peter McCreanor, CEO of Tribe Infrastructure Group, signed the agreement .

Financial close on the A$511 million ($352 million) greenfield East Rockingham Resource Recovery Facility, which will be located in the Rockingham Industry Zone, 40km south of Perth in Western Australia, was achieved last month and construction has already started.

UPDATE 1- #Kuwait deficit to widen with 2020-2021 budget on lower revenues - Reuters

UPDATE 1-Kuwait deficit to widen with 2020-2021 budget on lower revenues - Reuters:

Kuwait expects a budget deficit of 9.2 billion dinars ($30.33 billion) in the fiscal year starting on April 1 after it has deposited 10% of total revenue into the country’s sovereign wealth fund, government figures released on Tuesday showed. 


That represents a deficit increase of 19% compared with the previous year, for which the Gulf state had projected a 7.7 billion-dinar shortfall.

Kuwait projects spending of 22.5 billion dinars for the 2020-2021 budget, according to the figures released at a news briefing by Finance Minister Mariam Aqeel Al-Aqeel.

Oil gains ahead of U.S.-China trade deal, snapping four-day decline - Reuters

Oil gains ahead of U.S.-China trade deal, snapping four-day decline - Reuters:

Global oil benchmark Brent crude rose 1% to near $65 a barrel on Tuesday, snapping four straight days of declines on easing Mideast tensions as the United States and China, the world’s top energy consumers, prepared to sign a preliminary trade deal.

Brent crude gained 65 cents to $64.85 per barrel by 1311 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 52 cents or 0.9% at $58.60 a barrel.

The outlook for oil demand was supported ahead of the signing at the White House on Wednesday of a Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal, which marks a major step in ending a dispute that has cut global growth and dented demand for oil.

China has pledged to buy more than $50 billion in energy supplies from the United States over the next two years, according to a source briefed on a trade deal.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Middle Eastern stocks gain on financials, #Kuwait leads - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Middle Eastern stocks gain on financials, Kuwait leads - Reuters:

Gulf stock markets closed higher on Tuesday with Kuwait
leading the gains, bolstered by banking shares amid rising oil prices, while
Egypt was supported by top lender Commercial International Bank.

Oil prices rose snapping four straight days of declines as the United States
and China prepared to sign a preliminary trade deal.

Brent crude gained 43 cents, or 0.67%, at $64.63 per barrel by 1036
GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 32 cents or 0.4% at
$58.40 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia's index was up 0.4%. Al Rajhi Bank gained
0.8%, while

petrochemical firm Saudi Basic Industries added 0.5%.

State-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco closed up 0.3% at 34.9 riyals,
offsetting earlier losses during the day.

RPT-Banks lobby Aramco for incentive fee after slim IPO pickings -sources - Reuters

RPT-Banks lobby Aramco for incentive fee after slim IPO pickings -sources - Reuters:

Global banks who worked on Saudi Aramco’s record initial public offering are pushing for an additional “incentive fee”, three sources familiar with the matter said, as they try to boost relatively low earnings from the deal.

Aramco said on Sunday it had exercised a “greenshoe option” to sell an additional 450 million shares, raising the size of its IPO to $29.4 billion - comfortably the world’s biggest listing to date.

But the energy giant’s earlier decision not to market the deal internationally means most banks involved in selling Aramco’s shares will earn less than $5 million each, according to two of the sources, a low amount for such a large deal.

Now banks are in discussions with Aramco for the payment of the “incentive fee” under a clause in the contract that gives the Saudi government the discretion to pay banks an extra sum if the listing went well.

First #AbuDhabi Bank sells $500 mln sukuk - Reuters

First Abu Dhabi Bank sells $500 mln sukuk - Reuters:

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) , the largest lender in the United Arab Emirates, is selling sukuk, or Islamic bonds, worth $500 million dollars, a document by one of the banks leading the deal showed.

The bank is marketing the paper with a profit rate equivalent to 90 basis points over mid-swaps, according to the document.

#Qatar National Bank's 2019 net profit beats forecast with 4% rise - Reuters

Qatar National Bank's 2019 net profit beats forecast with 4% rise - Reuters:

Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), the Gulf’s biggest lender by assets, posted a 4% rise in annual profit on Tuesday, beating analysts’ forecasts, as earnings were boosted by double-digit growth in loans.

The bank reported a net profit of 14.4 billion riyals ($3.95 billion) in 2019, up from 13.8 billion riyals a year earlier, it said in a statement. That was above a mean forecast of 13.9 billion riyals from a Refinitiv poll of analysts.

QNB’s fourth-quarter profit rose to 3.2 billion riyals, according to Reuters calculations, from 3 billion riyals a year earlier. Analysts at EFG Hermes had also forecast a quarterly net profit of 3.2 billion riyals.

The bank, which is 50% owned by Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund Qatar Investment Authority, said loans and advances grew 10% in 2019 from a year earlier, while customer deposits also rose at the same pace.

Finablr faces tricky reboot after Travelex hack

The new year has gotten off to a bumpy start for fintech group Finablr, whose Travelex unit has been crippled by hackers. The fallout at that foreign exchange division looks manageable. The key question is whether the scandal affects the London-listed group’s prize payments unit.
Finablr’s shareholders have plenty to be worried about. Listed in May last year, the foreign exchange-to-payments technology company’s stock has suffered from its association with top shareholder B.R. Shetty, whose NMC Health has been targeted by short seller Muddy Waters. The more pressing issue is the attack from hackers Sodinokibi, which started on New Year’s Eve and has forced Finablr to serve retail customers with pen and paper.
On Monday Travelex said it was restoring its systems. Assuming they are up and running soon, the fallout should be manageable. Finablr says it has found no evidence that any customer data had been stolen. But if it has, it might face a fine of up to 4% of Travelex’s revenue, or about 32 million pounds using 2018’s figures. The loss of two weeks revenue would be a similar blow. Finablr might also need to invest more in technology to prevent a repeat, but even doubling the 31 million pounds spent on growth capex in the first half of the year would imply a total hit of less than 100 million pounds, around a third of the 270 million pound decline since the hack.

BNP, Citigroup Among Most Exposed in Mideast’s Biggest Default - Bloomberg

BNP, Citigroup Among Most Exposed in Mideast’s Biggest Default - Bloomberg:

BNP Paribas SA and Citigroup Inc. are among global banks with the most exposure to about $14 billion of accepted claims related to the collapse of two Saudi business empires more than a decade ago.

The French bank is owed about $750 million by Maan al-Sanea’s Saad Group and Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi & Brothers Co. -- two family holding companies that defaulted on roughly $16 billion in 2009 -- after a Saudi court accepted its claims, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. The U.S. bank is owed about $270 million by Saad Group, the documents show.

The court’s approval last month of claims from more than 100 local and international banks, hedge funds and other creditors is a milestone in the Middle East’s longest-running and biggest defaults that have involved court cases spanning from London to the Cayman Islands.

Family-owned conglomerate Algosaibi, known as AHAB, defaulted on about $9 billion of debt, while Saad Group was unable to repay roughly $7 billion after the global economic crisis froze credit markets and asset prices slumped.

Lekoil Oil, Gas Field Future at Risk After Alleged Scam - Bloomberg

Lekoil Oil, Gas Field Future at Risk After Alleged Scam - Bloomberg:

Lekoil Ltd., an explorer and producer in Nigeria, dropped to a record low in London trading after falling victim to an alleged fraud.

The company now has until February to raise enough money to cover its share of drilling costs to develop a license off Nigeria, or risk losing the asset altogether.

A loan agreement struck earlier this month, purportedly with the Qatar Investment Authority, “seems to have been entered into by the company with individuals who have constructed a complex facade in order to masquerade as representatives of the QIA,” Lekoil said in a statement on Tuesday.

“The facility agreement can no longer be considered to be legally binding or enforceable,” and it should be assumed that none of the funding will be forthcoming, Lekoil said. The company has until February to show its ability to raise 42.86% of costs, equivalent to about $12 million, to drill an appraisal well in offshore block OPL 310.

Where to Find Opportunities in #Saudi, #UAE, Egypt Stocks?: Yazan Abdeen of Invest AD - Bloomberg

Where to Find Opportunities in Saudi, U.A.E., Egypt Stocks?: Yazan Abdeen of Invest AD - Bloomberg:

Yazan Abdeen, head of equities at Invest AD, talks about Saudi Arabian, U.A.E. and Egyptian stocks. He speaks with Manus Cranny and Yousef Gamal El-Din on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

#Saudi Q4 earnings outlook for equities, petrochem, banks and F&B | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi Q4 earnings outlook for equities, petrochem, banks and F&B | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Financial earnings of Saudi Arabia’s listed companies are expected to be mixed with large cap stocks expected to lead the profit decline.

“We expect consumer staples, healthcare, and education sectors to be the most profitable sectors in 2019. Energy stocks are expected to post growth in profits in 2019. The financial sector is also expected to post profits in 2019, with some variance in performance between institutions,” Iyad Abu Hweij, Managing Partner, at the Abu Dhabi-based Allied Investment Partners PJSC, told Zawya on email.

The stock market is heavily skewed towards the energy and banking sectors, with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), Saudi Telecom and Al Rajhi Bank dominating.

Below are a few estimates by three top Saudi brokerages, Al Rajhi Capital, Riyad Capital and NCB Capital.

#Saudi, #UAE Banks to See Jump in Loan Demand as Profit Lags - Bloomberg

Saudi, U.A.E. Banks to See Jump in Loan Demand as Profit Lags - Bloomberg:

While banks in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can look forward to burgeoning loan growth in 2020, higher earnings could be slow to follow as lower interest rates pressure profit margins.

Lending in the U.A.E. is expected to get a lift from Dubai’s hosting of a six-month exhibition involving more than 190 countries. In addition, economic growth is forecast to rise to 2.5% from 1.6% last year, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. A regional expansion by U.A.E. banks may also add to revenue, as a government-backed mortgages program in Saudi Arabia fuels demand for home loans.


“Expo 2020 is a key catalyst -- which can offer a boost to both corporate and consumer spending -- and provide impetus to tourism,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Naresh Bilandani said in an email. “We’re seeing an improvement in credit volumes in Saudi Arabia, a recovery in loan growth in Turkey in the fourth quarter of 2019, and strong volume in Egypt. These trends will also be supportive of U.A.E. banks’ loan growth in 2020.”

Oversupply issues in #Dubai set to continue with 49,000 new units expected in 2020 - Arabianbusiness

Oversupply issues in Dubai set to continue with 49,000 new units expected in 2020 - Arabianbusiness:

Oversupply in Dubai’s real estate market looks likely to continue, according to the annual market update from Core.

The Dubai-based real estate outfit revealed over 32,000 units were brought to market in 2019 – the highest number of residential handovers in the last decade - taking the total residential stock in the emirate to 550,000 units.

While Core has “conservatively estimated” that over 49,000 units will be delivered in 2020, with a particular focus on MBR City, Dubailand and Dubai South. 


Prathyusha Gurrapu, head of research and advisory at Core, said: “We continue to witness increasing downward pressure on prices due to record supply volumes across all asset classes and the wider global economic and regional geo-political uncertainty.”

DP World wins ruling against Djibouti over seized port

DP World wins ruling against Djibouti over seized port:

DP World said Tuesday it has won another arbitration ruling against Djibouti over the African country’s seizure of a container terminal managed by the Dubai-based global port operator. 


The company said a London tribunal ordered Djibouti to restore its rights and benefits under a 2006 concession agreement governing the Doraleh port within two months or pay damages. DP World estimates it has lost $1 billion since Djibouti took over the terminal in February 2018.

DP World, which is majority-owned by the Dubai government in the United Arab Emirates, operates nearly 80 marine and inland terminals around the world.

Djibouti seized the container terminal after DP World created another corridor for imports to landlocked Ethiopia in Somaliland, endangering Djibouti’s near-monopoly on Ethiopia’s imports.

Oil extends decline as supply disruption fears recede - Reuters

Oil extends decline as supply disruption fears recede - Reuters:

Oil prices slid toward $64 a barrel on Tuesday, extending four straight days of declines due to easing concerns of possible supply disruptions as a result of tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude was down 11 cents, or 0.19%, at $64.08 per barrel by 0916 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 22 cents or 0.4% at $57.86 a barrel. The benchmarks lost about 5% and 6%, respectively, last week.

The recent declines followed investors unwinding bullish positions built following the killing of a senior Iranian general in a U.S. air strike in Iraq on Jan. 2 which sent oil prices to a four-month high, global oil strategist at BNP Paribas in London Harry Tchilinguirian said.

“As geopolitical tensions take a back seat for now, we may see more of the same in the short term,” Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

Mideast Stocks: #Saudi gains on banks and petchems, #Kuwait outperforms | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Saudi gains on banks and petchems, Kuwait outperforms | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Most Gulf stock markets rose on Tuesday ahead of corporate earnings announcements, while Kuwait outperformed as it reopened after a two-session break.

Saudi Arabia's index was up 0.4%, led by gains in financial and petrochemical shares. Al Rajhi Bank climbed 0.9%, while petrochemical firm Saudi Basic Industries added 0.3%.

Amongst others, United Wire Factories jumped 7.7% to 20.38 riyals, its highest since May 2017 after it reported a surge in its annual profit.

However, state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco slipped 0.1% to 34.7 riyals.

Kuwait's index, which was closed in the last two sessions following the death of Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said, opened up 1.4%. Ahli United Bank rose 3.3% and National Bank of Kuwait added 1.1%.