Monday 16 November 2020

Oil settles higher boosted by latest COVID-19 vaccine progress | Reuters

Oil settles higher boosted by latest COVID-19 vaccine progress | Reuters

Oil prices settled up more than 2% on Monday after trading higher earlier in the day as Moderna Inc MRNA.O said its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19.

Brent crude futures for January LCOc1 settled up 1.04, or 2.43%, at $43.82 a barrel, after earlier rising more than 4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December CLc1 was up $1.21, or 3%, at $41.34.

“There was a little bit of excess buying pressure, which pushed us ahead of where the fundamentals supported us, so we only partially held the gains,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford. “We have an overhanging concern over global demand as COVID-19 outbreaks continue around the world.”

The announcement by Moderna comes after Pfizer Inc PFE.N reported last week that its vaccine was more than 90% effective, raising hopes that pandemic-driven damage to the global economy could be reduced.

Prices were also buoyed by data showing a rebound in China and Japan, with figures showing that Chinese refineries processed record daily levels of crude in October.

Gulf social changes are in the global spotlight | Financial Times #UAE

Gulf social changes are in the global spotlight | Financial Times

In the UAE the brash commercialism of Dubai has sometimes obscured Abu Dhabi’s harsh response to
 political Islam at home and abroad © Christopher Pike/Reuters

Overshadowed by world events such as the US presidential election or the first breakthrough in developing a Covid-19 vaccine, the United Arab Emirates last week announced radical changes in its legal system. These are designed primarily to enhance the Gulf country’s attraction to expatriate workers, but they could resonate and ripple, over time, throughout the Muslim world. 

It is always hard to decide whether change in the Gulf, effusively hyped and expensively marketed, is about rebranding or reform. But the UAE reforms can also be seen as part of a race between Gulf countries, hit by the pandemic and the slump in world demand for oil, to reinvent themselves. 

The UAE, a federation of seven emirates whose senior partner is Abu Dhabi, has moved in a secular direction by decriminalising alcohol consumption and the cohabitation of unmarried couples, as well as fully criminalising so-called “honour crimes” against women. The reforms also enable resident foreigners, who outnumber Emiratis nine to one, to settle family law issues such as divorce and inheritance under their home-country legal system rather than the Muslim sharia code. 

The UAE, unlike Saudi Arabia, allows adherents of all mainstream religions to worship freely, and welcomed Pope Francis last year, the first Roman Catholic pontiff to visit the Arabian peninsula where Islam was born. It has also focused on education and innovation, while expanding the rights and public role of women. 

But Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of the UAE, is at one with his ally and counterpart Mohammed bin Salman, the young heir to the Saudi throne. The Saudi crown prince has reined in the Wahhabi clerical establishment to pursue his brand of economic modernisation and let a young society repressed by medieval puritanism breathe. But both these dynastic autocrats have stamped out political dissent and criticism. 

In the UAE the brash commercialism of Dubai has sometimes obscured Abu Dhabi’s harsh response to political Islam at home and abroad since the Arab upheavals of the past decade unleashed a regional whirlwind. Yet it is competing fiercely with its neighbours for the global spotlight. 

The pandemic has postponed until next October the Expo 2020 extravaganza but the fair still expects up to 25m visitors to showcase an open UAE economy marked by innovation. Saudi Arabia, which plans to host sporting events such as Formula One races and boxing, has just announced the overhaul of the kafala system in which foreigners working in the kingdom need a local sponsor, a lucrative practice critics liken to indentured labour. From next March about 10m expats will be able to move jobs and exit the country without their sponsors’ permission. 

The gas-rich emirate of Qatar, blockaded since 2017 by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt for its promotion of the Muslim Brotherhood, dalliance with Iran and alliance with Turkey, is in more confrontational competition with its neighbours. Yet as part of its controversial plans to host the 2022 football World Cup it has changed its kafala system and introduced a minimum wage. It has announced elections next year to further burnish its image. 

Over the centuries, the Middle East has tended to flourish most when there have been places, from Abbasid Baghdad to the Ottoman Levant, that act as cultural clearing houses where civilisations and faiths, traders and travellers, meet and rub shoulders. Change in the Gulf has a long way to go before it reaches that level of amenity. But that should be its direction of travel.

#Saudi Banks Sign Supply Chain Financing Deal With Government - Bloomberg

Saudi Banks Sign Supply Chain Financing Deal With Government - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance and three of the kingdom’s largest banks have started a supply chain financing facility that will enable contractors to secure money owed to them faster.

The Finance Ministry has partnered with Saudi British Bank, Samba Financial Group and National Commercial Bank, according to a statement. The loans will be available to suppliers to the government that have had invoices approved, but are still awaiting payment.

The move is the latest sign of the government trying to better support suppliers, many of which complained about difficulties getting invoices approved by the government following the oil price slump in 2015. The government pledged 50 billion riyals ($13 billion) to expedite payments for government contractors in April as part of stimulus measures to support the private sector, which was battered by the fallout from coronavirus pandemic.

“We all benefit from this -- the banks get some business, the suppliers get money earlier -- and the government benefits from the effects of having the money back out circulating again,” David Dew, managing director of SABB, said in an interview.

OPEC+ weighs further steps to support market, sees weaker compliance | Reuters

OPEC+ weighs further steps to support market, sees weaker compliance | Reuters

OPEC and its allies discussed weaker compliance with pledged oil output cuts on Monday and weighed further action to support the market as the second wave of coronavirus hits demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others, known as OPEC+, were due to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January as part of a steady easing of record supply cuts implemented earlier this year.

But, with demand for fuel weakening, OPEC+ has been considering delaying that increase or even making further cuts.

An option gaining support among OPEC+ is keeping the existing supply curbs of 7.7 million bpd for another three to six months, OPEC+ sources said, rather than tapering the cut to 5.7 million bpd in January as currently called for.

“Discussion on this is possible,” said an OPEC source, citing “weaker demand and rising Libyan output.”

Aramco risk seen as higher than #Saudi sovereign ahead of new bonds | Reuters

Aramco risk seen as higher than Saudi sovereign ahead of new bonds | Reuters

Saudi Aramco’s planned bond issuance will likely price around 10 basis points wider than the government of Saudi Arabia’s debt curve, financial sources said, the small difference suggesting that investors see its risk profile as slightly higher after oil prices dropped this year.

The oil giant said on Monday it was considering issuing multi-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated bonds in what would be its second foray into the international debt markets.

Last year, in Aramco’s jumbo debut bond issuance of $12 billion, the world’s largest oil producer priced its paper inside the sovereign’s curve, as investors put the oil producer - if unconstrained by its sovereign links - in the same league as independent oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Shell.

The bonds widened when they started trading and their gap to Saudi government paper of the same maturity narrowed.



#Israel Posted Best Quarter Since 1995 as First Lockdown Ended - Bloomberg

Israel Posted Best Quarter Since 1995 as First Lockdown Ended - Bloomberg

The Israeli economy posted its best quarter since at least 1995, buoyed by a loosening of coronavirus-related restrictions.

Gross domestic product rose a seasonally adjusted, annualized 37.9% in the third quarter, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. That topped the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey that had a median forecast of 24%.

The rebound came after output shrank nearly 29% in the three months to June, the worst quarterly showing in at least 45 years, as the country locked down to contain the early spread of the pandemic. By the third quarter, most restrictions had been eased before a surge in infections prompted a second shutdown starting on Sept. 18.

“The economy is resilient and is capable of rebounding rapidly,” said Jonathan Katz, a macroeconomic strategist for Leader Capital Markets Ltd. “More importantly, high-tech service exports boomed.”

Still, the decision to only gradually open from the second nationwide closure “will probably mean that we won’t have that kind of rebound, let’s say, in the first quarter of ’21,” he said.



#UAE central bank extends stimulus scheme to stem COVID-19 impact | Reuters

UAE central bank extends stimulus scheme to stem COVID-19 impact | Reuters

The United Arab Emirates central bank said on Monday it had extended to June 2021 the applicability period of key components of a stimulus scheme to support retail and corporate banking customers and accelerate recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

In March the CBUAE launched $70 billion worth of capital and liquidity measures as part of a Targeted Economic Support Scheme (TESS) aimed at providing economic stimulus during the coronavirus crisis.

The CBUAE will extend for another six months, starting from January, the duration of a 50 billion dirhams ($13.6 billion) “Zero Cost Facility” aimed at easing liquidity management for banks through collateralised funding at zero cost.

“Starting from 1 January 2021, banks and finance companies participating in the TESS will be able to provide new loans and facilities to customers negatively affected by the pandemic” within the terms set by the TESS scheme, it said in a statement.

The UAE economy is expected to shrink by 6.6% this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated, as vital sectors such as transportation and tourism have been badly hit by the coronavirus.

Emirates sees profitability in two years, flies now to more than 100 destinations | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Emirates sees profitability in two years, flies now to more than 100 destinations | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Dubai-based Emirates airline now flies to more than 100 destinations and expects to post profit in the next two years after it reported first loss in more than 30 years due to Covid-19.

While speaking to CNBC, Tim Clark, president of Emirates airline, projected that the carrier will return to profitability within the next 18 months or two years.

Emirates Group reported a 2020-21 half-year net loss of Dh14.1 billion while Emirates airline posted Dh12.6 billion loss. The group’s revenues plummeted 74 per cent to Dh13.7 billion while Emirates airline announced 75 per cent plunge in revenues to Dh11.7 billion.

Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman and CEO of Emirates Airline and Group, had said in the first-half report that no one can predict the recovery of the sector, but he expects a steep recovery in travel demand once a Covid-19 vaccine is available, and the airline is readying itself to serve that rebound.

Despite tough times, the airline enjoys strong cash position, holding Dh20.7 billion in cash as on September 30, 2020 as compared to Dh25.6 billion on March 31, 2020.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #AbuDhabi leads most Gulf markets higher | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Abu Dhabi leads most Gulf markets higher | Nasdaq

Most Gulf markets rose on Monday, with Abu Dhabi leading the gains, buoyed by signs of economic recovery and additional positive data about a COVID-19 vaccine.

Pharma company Moderna MRNA.O said on Monday its experimental vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing the virus, which has ravaged economies across the globe.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI rose 0.3%, with Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE rising 1% and Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services 4013.SE advancing 2.6%.

However, the index's gains were capped by losses at Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) 5110.SE, which declined 4.6%.

The utility firm said on Monday it has signed an agreement with the government to convert state liabilities worth 167.92 billion riyals ($45 billion) into a subordinated perpetual financial instrument to strengthen its balance sheet.

This conversion is considered non-dilutive and will therefore have no impact on SEC's existing shareholders’ stakes.

Dubai's main share index .DFMGI closed 1.3% higher, led by a 3.8% jump in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties EMAR.DU and a 1.5% increase in Emirates NBD Bank ENBD.DU.

The Abu Dhabi index .ADI advanced 1.6%, buoyed by a 3.4% leap in the United Arab Emirates' largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD and a 0.5% rise in Emirates Telecommunications ETISALAT.AD.

The United Arab Emirates will extend its "golden" visa system - which grants 10-year residency in the Gulf state - to certain professionals, specialised degree-holders and others, the UAE's vice president said on Sunday.

In Qatar, the index .QSI firmed 0.2%, supported by a 4.2% gain in Qatar Gas Transport QGTS.QA.

Among Gainers, Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA finished the session 0.5% higher. On Monday, the Gulf's biggest lender closed the syndication for its dual-tranche $3.5 billion senior unsecured term loan.

#Iran Business Event Seeks to Tap Post-Trump Investor Interest - Bloomberg

Iran Business Event Seeks to Tap Post-Trump Investor Interest - Bloomberg

A conference aimed at European investors who want to tap Iranian markets if U.S. sanctions are again lifted will take place next month.

The Europe-Iran Business Forum, which is funded by the European Union, will runs Dec. 14-16 and will be the first of its kind in two years, according to a statement by its organizers.

International conferences on Iran’s economy, trade and banking sectors had surged following the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran, the U.S., European Union, Russia and China, but they virtually disappeared after President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the accord in 2018 and renewed a crippling sanctions regime on the Islamic Republic.

President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to return the U.S. to the Iran accord, which was brokered by the Obama administration when he was vice president. He’s said that he wants Iran to return to full compliance to the deal in exchange for the U.S. doing the same and lifting sanctions.

#Qatar National Bank closes syndication of $3.5 billion loan - statement | Reuters

Qatar National Bank closes syndication of $3.5 billion loan - statement | Reuters

Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA, the Gulf's biggest lender, said on Monday it has closed the syndication for its dual-tranche $3.5 billion senior unsecured term loan.

Sources had told Reuters last month that QNB was planning to raise the loan to refinance an existing $3.5 billion debt facility raised in 2017 that matures next month.

#Saudi Utility Converts $45 Billion Liabilities to Quasi-Equity - Bloomberg

Saudi Utility Converts $45 Billion Liabilities to Quasi-Equity - Bloomberg

Saudi Electricity Co. will reclassify 168 billion riyals ($45 billion) of liabilities as “equity-like” instruments, as the state-controlled utility looks to bolster its balance sheet.

The liabilities, owed to the Saudi Arabian government, “will be converted into a perpetual deeply subordinated equity-like financial instrument,” the company said in a statement Monday. “This conversion is considered non-dilutive and will therefore have no impact on the company’s existing shareholders’ stake.”

The utility, based in Riyadh, was granted a royal approval for the change. Its shares fell 1.5% to 21.72 riyals as of 11:04 a.m., paring this year’s gain to 7.4%.

The new instrument will have a redemption option and a profit rate of 4.5% annually, and be payable once SEC distributes dividends for ordinary shares. It represents about a third of the company’s total assets at the end of the third quarter. The conversion includes government loans and 3.35 billion riyals of dividends owed to Saudi Aramco since SEC’s inception in 2017.

#UAE national carrier to start flying to Tel Aviv next spring

UAE national carrier to start flying to Tel Aviv next spring

Etihad Airways, the national airline of the United Arab Emirates, announced Monday it would start operating daily nonstop flights to Tel Aviv next spring, a move that deepens ties between the UAE and Israel after the two countries agreed to normalize relations.

Direct flights on Etihad between the emirates’ capital of Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv will begin March 28, giving “Emiratis and UAE residents the opportunity to discover Israel’s historical sites, beaches, restaurants and nightlife,” the state-owned carrier said in a statement. Tickets are already available on Etihad’s website.

The announcement comes after Dubai’s budget carrier flydubai said it would begin offering direct flights between Dubai and Tel Aviv later this month.

The UAE and Israel signed a U.S.-brokered accord establishing formal diplomatic ties on the White House lawn in September. The deal marked a diplomatic achievement for President Donald Trump ahead of his reelection campaign and reflects a changing Middle East, in which shared enmity of Iran has largely overtaken traditional Arab support for the Palestinians. Soon after the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan agreed to formalize ties with Israel in similar agreements.

#Saudi Aramco plans debt market comeback with multi-tranche bond deal | Reuters

Saudi Aramco plans debt market comeback with multi-tranche bond deal | Reuters

Saudi Aramco 2222.SE said on Monday it had hired banks for a multi-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated bond issuance, as the world's largest oil company seeks cash amid lower oil prices.

Gulf issuers have show no sign of slowing this year’s blitz of issues on international debt markets as they work to plug finances hit by weaker oil prices and the coronavirus crisis.

Issuances from the region so far this year have already shot through 2019’s record, again surpassing $100 billion.

Goldman Sachs GS.N, Citi C.N, HSBC HSBA.L, JPMorgan JPM.N, Morgan Stanley MS.N and NCB Capital 1180.SE were hired to arrange investor calls starting on Monday before the planned transaction, Aramco said in a bourse filing.

Other banks involved in the deal include BNP Paribas BNPP.PA, BOC International 601696.SS, BofA Securities BAC.N, Credit Agricole CAGR.PA, First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD, Mizuho 8411.T, MUFG 8306.T, SMBC Nikko 8316.T and Societe Generale SOGN.PA, a document issued by one of the banks on the deal showed.

Oil climbs higher on China, Japan rebound, hopes of OPEC+ supply curb | Reuters

Oil climbs higher on China, Japan rebound, hopes of OPEC+ supply curb | Reuters

Oil prices climbed on Monday, recouping some losses from the previous session as hopes that OPEC+ will hold current output curbs offset concerns over weaker fuel demand due to growing coronavirus infections and higher production in Libya.

Figures showing a rebound in the world’s second and third largest economies, China and Japan, also supported prices, along with data that Chinese refineries processed the most crude ever in October on a daily basis.

Brent crude futures for January LCOc1 rose 54 cents, or 1.3%, to $43.32 a barrel by 0723 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December CLc1 was at $40.76 a barrel, up 63 cents, or 1.6%.

“Fundamentally China’s numbers do support why oil prices can keep at these levels,” said OCBC economist Howie Lee.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most major Gulf markets gain; #Saudi index flat | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most major Gulf markets gain; Saudi index flat | Nasdaq

Most major stock markets in the Gulf rose early on Monday, extending gains on hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine following encouraging initial trial results for an experimental drug.

Drugmaker Pfizer PFE.N announced last week that its experimental COVID-19 vaccine had been more than 90% effective in preventing the virus.

Dubai's main share index .DFMGI gained 1%. Largest lender Emirates NBD Bank ENBD.DU rose 1.5%, while blue-chip developer Emaar Properties EMAR.DU advanced 2.1%.

The Abu Dhabi index .ADI added 0.4%, led by a 0.8% rise in its largest lender, First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD, and a 0.1% increase in telecoms firm Etisalat ETISALAT.AD.

In Qatar, the index .QSI firmed 0.3%, supported by a 0.7% gain in Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA and a 0.8% rise in petrochemical firm Industries Qatar IQCD.QA.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI traded flat, with Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services 4013.SE rising 1.1%.

Official data showed on Sunday that Saudi Arabia's consumer price index increased by 5.8% in October compared with the same month last year, slightly above September's 5.7% rate.