Monday 4 January 2021

#SaudiArabia to open borders with #Qatar to end bitter Gulf dispute | Financial Times

Saudi Arabia to open borders with Qatar to end bitter Gulf dispute | Financial Times

Saudi Arabia has agreed to reopen its land, air and sea borders with Qatar in a move to end a dispute lasting more than three years that triggered an unprecedented crisis in the oil-rich Gulf and pitted US allies against each other.

Kuwait, which has been mediating between the rivals, said the borders would be open from Monday evening.

The rapprochement comes after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, stepped up efforts to end the dispute with the kingdom’s neighbour. The Trump administration has also pressured Gulf states to resolve the spat as it seeks to claim a success before its term ends this month.

As a result of the deal, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Qatar’s emir, will attend a Gulf summit in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday at which more details of an agreement between Doha and its rivals are due to be announced.

#SaudiArabia, #Qatar to sign U.S.-brokered deal to ease Gulf crisis - Axios

Saudi Arabia, Qatar to sign U.S.-brokered deal to ease Gulf crisis - Axios

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (L) and Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani. Photo: Fayez Nureldine/AFP via Getty Images


Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Gulf countries are expected to sign an agreement on Tuesday toward ending a diplomatic crisis in the Gulf after 3½ years.

The big picture: A Saudi-led coalition severed ties with Qatar in 2017 and closed their airspace and sea routes to Qatari planes and vessels, citing Qatar's alleged support for terror groups and relations with Iran. In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been under pressure from the Trump administration to end the dispute.

  • The U.S. maintains close ties with both Qatar and its rivals, but the Trump administration's past several attempts to reconcile the parties have been unsuccessful.
  • Both Gulf countries see the signing of the agreement as a gesture to the Trump administration and part of their effort to “clean the table” to prepare for the incoming Biden administration.
  • Jared Kushner mediated between the parties and traveled to Saudi Arabia to participate in the signing during this week's Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.

The latest: Ahead of the signing of the agreement, the Kuwaiti foreign minister announced that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would open their land, air and sea borders starting on Monday night.

Driving the news: Kushner traveled to the GCC summit in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, with White House envoy Avi Berkowitz and adviser Brian Hook, who helped negotiate the agreement.

  • The summit will be the first time the Emir of Qatar Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani will visit Saudi Arabia since the crisis erupted in 2017. The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kuwait will also attend.
  • The leaders are going to sign an agreement that includes three confidence-building measures: Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain will lift the air and sea blockade of Qatar; Qatar will withdraw all lawsuits against its three Gulf neighbors; and all parties will stop their media campaigns against each other.

Behind the scenes: The deal was reached in principle during Kushner’s last visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar several weeks ago, where he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sheikh Tamim. Kushner has close relationships with both leaders.

  • U.S. officials say that after meeting the Saudi crown prince, Kushner traveled to Qatar's capital Doha with Hook while leaving close aides Berkowitz and Adam Boehler behind in Saudi Arabia. The two mediated talks between the Saudis and the Qataris over the phone in real time until a draft deal was reached.
  • In the last few weeks, final discussions were held with the Saudis and the Qataris to ensure both sides were committed to the understandings that were reached, the officials told me.
  • The White House also lobbied the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt — all three of which have reservations about the agreement, as they view Qatar in a negative light and do not believe the Qataris are sincere.
  • The deal almost fell apart on Sunday when a last-minute miscommunication created new tensions between the Saudis and the Qataris, sources briefed on the matter told me.
  • Kushner and his team were supposed to leave on Sunday afternoon but postponed their trip. A source told me Kushner and his team were forced to negotiate with the Saudis and the Qataris into the night on Sunday until a solution was found. They left Washington en route to Saudi Arabia early Monday morning.

What they're saying: A senior diplomat from one of the Gulf countries told me the agreement is a step in the right direction and includes some positive developments — but it does not mark the end of the Gulf rift.

  • “Some of the issues were solved, but the root causes for the rift — bad personal relationships between the leaders and big policy differences on Iran, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood — are still there," the diplomat told me.

The bottom line: The agreement, which will be signed on Tuesday, would be a last-minute achievement for Kushner and the Trump administration before President-elect Joe Biden takes office on Jan. 20.


Oil slides with U.S. stocks as OPEC+ delays output decision | Reuters

Oil slides with U.S. stocks as OPEC+ delays output decision | Reuters

Oil prices slipped from multi-month highs to end more than 1% lower on the first trading day of the year after OPEC+ failed to decide on Monday whether to increase output in February and agreed to meet again on Tuesday.

Brent futures settled 71 cents, or 1.4%, lower at $51.09 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 90 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $47.62.

Earlier in the session, WTI hit its highest since February and Brent its highest since March. The premium of Brent over WTI reached its highest since May.

The S&P 500 and the Dow also fell from record levels as President Donald Trump travels to Georgia in a bid to keep the U.S. Senate in the hands of his Republican Party ahead of Tuesday’s run-off election in the battleground state.

Gulf Traders Need More Than a Thaw With #Qatar to Stoke Rally - Bloomberg

Gulf Traders Need More Than a Thaw With Qatar to Stoke Rally - Bloomberg

Investors want to see more pieces of the Middle East’s geopolitical jigsaw drop into place before they give bonds in the region a fresh lift.

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s annual meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday is raising hopes for a thaw between Qatar on one side, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt on the other. But the market impact may be muted as investors focus on bigger concerns, including U.S. President-Elect Joe Biden’s stance on key allies in the region, and escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Any step toward mending the standoff would be only “marginally positive” for the region’s debt markets, said Mohieddine Kronfol, Dubai-based chief investment officer for Middle Eastern and North African fixed income at Franklin Templeton.



“While this is clearly welcome news to see a rapprochement of some sorts between the GCC members, this is arguably one of the less impactful geopolitical pressure points facing the region,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “This will take time to convince the market that trust has been rebuilt.”


OPEC+ producers split over oil output increase -sources | Reuters

OPEC+ producers split over oil output increase -sources | Reuters

OPEC+ oil producers were split on Monday over increasing output from February as some feared a hit from new coronavirus lockdowns while Russia and Kazakhstan said demand recovery justified higher production, five OPEC+ sources said.

OPEC+, which groups OPEC and other producers including Russia, began meeting at around 1500 GMT on Monday.

Two OPEC+ sources told Reuters that in the meeting Russia and Kazakhstan backing raising production while Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates suggested holding output steady.

A day earlier OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo warned OPEC+ experts of downside risks facing the oil market.

Emerging Markets Start 2021 With a Record as Dollar Stumbles - Bloomberg

Emerging Markets Start 2021 With a Record as Dollar Stumbles - Bloomberg

Emerging-market currencies surged to a record high on the first trading day of 2021 as traders brushed aside the accelerating spread of the coronavirus and ditched the U.S. dollar for riskier assets.

The MSCI index of exchange rates in the developing world climbed as much as 0.7% to 1,731.69, surpassing its previous record set in March 2018 before the U.S.-China trade war hobbled risk appetite. The greenback lost ground against almost every major currency on Monday, pushing a gauge of its strength to the lowest level in nearly three years.



Investor sentiment is improving as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out and data point to a broad-based up-tick in economic activity, underpinned by unprecedented central bank stimulus. That’s pushing investors toward the higher returns of riskier emerging-market assets while undermining the case for the U.S. dollar, the haven currency of choice.

“Uncertainty is diminishing and the strong global growth recovery should favor the rest of the world,” said Patrik Schowitz, global multi-asset strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, which is underweight the dollar. The currency’s weakness is likely to be most notable “against the emerging markets foreign-exchange , which should have cyclical upside and is still relatively cheap.”

Oil falls with U.S. stocks despite OPEC+ seen keeping output steady | Reuters

Oil falls with U.S. stocks despite OPEC+ seen keeping output steady | Reuters

Oil prices fell from multi-month highs in volatile trade on Monday as U.S. stocks eased on concerns over the outcome of runoff elections in Georgia.

The market declined despite expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies will hold off on increasing output in February and optimism over a vaccine-driven economic recovery.

Brent futures dropped 73 cents, or 1.4%, to $51.07 a barrel by 10:56 a.m. EST (1556 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 93 cents, or 1.9%, to $47.59.

Earlier in the session, both benchmarks rose and fell by $1 a barrel with WTI reaching its highest since February and Brent its highest since March.

The S&P 500 and the Dow also eased from record levels on the first trading day of the year as President Donald Trump travels to Georgia in a bid to keep the U.S. Senate in the hands of his Republican Party.

#Dubai leads gains as markets rise on higher oil | Reuters

Dubai leads gains as markets rise on higher oil | Reuters

Major Gulf stock markets finished higher on Monday amid a surge in oil prices, with Dubai outperforming the region, led by property and banking stocks.

Oil prices touched multi-month highs on expectations OPEC and allied producers will cap output at current levels in February and on hopes that vaccines will curb the spread of the coronavirus. [O/R]

Most OPEC+ countries would like to postpone a planned increase in oil output from February, because fuel demand is weakening amid new global lockdowns, three OPEC+ sources said on Monday.

Sentiment was also aided by encouraging global manufacturing data. Surveys showed manufacturing across Europe grew at the end of 2020. Asian factory activity expanded thanks to Chinese demand.

Dubai closed 2.9% higher, marking the benchmark’s biggest single-day gain since June 7.

Dubai’s largest listed developer, Emaar Properties, was the top gainer, adding 5.3%. Its biggest bank, Emirates NBD, rose 4.3%.

The sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank gained 1.8%. Real estate company Damac Properties rose 3.8%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index gained on 0.7%, led by the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender, First Abu Dhabi Bank , which rose nearly 1%. Telecoms company Etisalat closed the session 0.7% higher.

Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi benchmarks have gained for two successive sessions.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index closed up 0.6%.

Al Rajhi Bank gained 1.1%. Saudi Kayan Petrochemical surged 6.4% after the Ministry of Energy approved its request to lift ethane allocation by a maximum of 30 million standard cubic feet per day.

The Qatari index advanced 0.4% with the Gulf’s largest lender, Qatar National Bank, adding 0.7%.

Stronger Demand Is Behind the Oil Price’s Rebound: Chart - Bloomberg

Stronger Demand Is Behind the Oil Price’s Rebound: Chart - Bloomberg


The Brent crude price has bounced from about $40 per barrel in mid-2020 to more than $50, with stronger demand behind the rebound as progress on Covid-19 vaccinations promises a return to normality. Bloomberg Economics splits the change in price into demand and supply drivers and estimate that a demand pick-up accounted for $25 of the gain over the last six months. Higher supply has weighed on prices, though, subtracting $15 per barrel.

Most OPEC+ producers oppose Feb output increase -sources | Reuters

Most OPEC+ producers oppose Feb output increase -sources | Reuters

Most OPEC+ oil-producing countries oppose plans to increase output from February as winter lockdowns to contain the coronavirus choke demand, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Monday.

OPEC+, which groups OPEC and other producers including Russia, meet on Monday, a day after OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo warned OPEC+ experts of downside risks facing the oil market.

The online meeting of OPEC+ ministers is scheduled to start at 1330 GMT.

“Amid the hopeful signs, the outlook for the first half of 2021 is very mixed and there are still many downside risks to juggle,” Barkindo said.

“Curbs on social and economic activity remain in place in a number of countries, and there is concern about the emergence of a pernicious new strain of the virus,” Barkindo said.

Shekel Bedevils Bank of #Israel on Pause: Decision Day Guide - Bloomberg

Shekel Bedevils Bank of Israel on Pause: Decision Day Guide - Bloomberg

The Bank of Israel is running out of solutions to its currency problem.

A quarter-century record is in sight for the shekel despite massive foreign-currency purchases and an April interest-rate cut Economists surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously expect the central bank to leave its benchmark interest rate at 0.1% on Monday.



“I don’t think they can do very much,” said Barry Topf, a former director of market operations at the Bank of Israel who helped to design its intervention program. “I think they know that, too, and just don’t want to say it.”

The currency gained nearly 7.5% against the greenback last year. It was trading up 0.2% at 3.2085 to the dollar at 10:07 a.m. on Monday in Tel Aviv.

OPEC+ Warns of Risk to Oil Recovery as Group Plots Next Move - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Warns of Risk to Oil Recovery as Group Plots Next Move - Bloomberg

OPEC warned of risks to the oil market from the resurgent pandemic, a day before the group and its allies meet to consider whether to increase production.

“The outlook for the first half of 2021 is very mixed,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said at a preparatory meeting on Sunday. “There are still many downside risks to juggle.”

The alliance of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will decide on Monday whether it can continue to restore crude supplies without capsizing the price recovery they spent most of 2020 working to achieve.

At a long and late meeting on Sunday, several countries including Saudi Arabia sounded cautious about increasing production further in February on top of the 500,000 barrels-a-day hike this month, delegates said. Riyadh has publicly kept its views under wraps, while Russia has backed an additional boost.

#Kuwait oil minister expects gradual recovery in oil demand -KUNA | Reuters

Kuwait oil minister expects gradual recovery in oil demand -KUNA | Reuters

Kuwait’s oil minister said on Monday that he expects a gradual recovery in oil demand, particularly in the second half of 2021, as many countries around the world start to distribute coronavirus vaccines, state news agency KUNA reported.

Foreign investors sold net $150.5mln of stocks on #Saudi Tadawul in December | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Foreign investors sold net $150.5mln of stocks on Saudi Tadawul in December | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Foreign investors were net sellers of 564.5 million riyals ($150.5 million) worth of stocks on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) in December 2020, according to data issued by the bourse. During the month, they bought 15.95 billion riyals worth of stocks and sold 16.52 billion riyals worth of stocks.

Saudi institutional investors were net buyers of 4.06 million riyals worth of stocks as they bought stocks worth 10.70 billion riyals and sold stocks worth 6.65 billion riyals.

GCC investors were net buyers of 3.26 billion riyals worth of stocks. They bought stocks worth 1.85 billion riyals and sold 1.52 billion riyals worth of stocks.

Meanwhile, mutual funds were net buyers of 254.4 million riyals worth of shares.

Oil prices touch multi-month highs as OPEC+ expected to cap output | Reuters

Oil prices touch multi-month highs as OPEC+ expected to cap output | Reuters

Oil prices touched multi-month highs on Monday on expectations that OPEC and allied producers may cap output at current levels in February as the coronavirus pandemic keeps worries about first-half demand elevated.

Prices rose in line with broader financial markets with Brent crude futures reaching $53.17 a barrel, the highest since March 2020. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude touched $49.71 a barrel, the highest since February 2020.

March Brent crude futures were at $52.94 a barrel, up $1.14 or 2.2%, by 0736 GMT while February WTI crude futures rose 98 cents, or 2%, to $49.50 a barrel.

Broader macro momentum trends including a weaker dollar and investors positioning for a recovery in the oil sector this year could support oil prices, Energy Aspects analyst Virendra Chauhan said.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf stocks rise on higher oil prices as OPEC+ expected to cap output | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Gulf stocks rise on higher oil prices as OPEC+ expected to cap output | Nasdaq

Major Gulf stock markets traded higher early on Monday amid rising oil prices, with Dubai outperforming the region in a boost led by property and banking stocks.

Oil rose on Monday on expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers may opt at a meeting on Monday to cap output at current levels in February, due to demand worries linked to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Dubai index .DFMGI was up 1.1%, extending the previous session's gains. Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties EMAR.DU led the rise in real estate shares, increasing 1.7%, and Dubai Islamic Bank DISB.DU added 1.1%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index .ADI gained 0.4%, supported by First Abu Dhabi Bank FAB.AD and telecoms major Etisalat ETISALT.AD rising 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index .TASI was up 0.5%, supported by petrochemical and banking shares.

Al Rajhi Bank 1120.SE gained 0.6%, while Saudi Kayan Petrochemical 2350.SE surged 6.9% to end a five-session losing streak with its sharpest intra-day rise since March 2020.

The chemical maker said the Ministry of Energy had approved its request to lift ethane allocation by a maximum of 30 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD), based on the availability of ethane from future gas production projects.

The Qatari index .QSI was up 0.1% as Industries Qatar IQCD.QA advanced 1.2%, while the Gulf's largest lender Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA gained 0.7%.

A Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit will be held on Jan. 5 to discuss steps towards ending a diplomatic row with Qatar that began in 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with the country.