Tuesday, 5 January 2021

Oil prices jump 5% on OPEC+ output talks, Iran tension | Reuters

Oil prices jump 5% on OPEC+ output talks, Iran tension | Reuters

Oil prices climbed nearly 5% on Tuesday after news that Saudi Arabia will make voluntary cuts to its oil output, while international political tension simmered over Iran’s seizure of a South Korean vessel.

Brent crude futures rose $2.51, or 4.9%, to settle at $53.60 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended $2.31, or 4.9%, higher at $49.93 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia will make additional, voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and March. The cuts are part of a deal to persuade most producers from the group consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to hold output steady amid concerns that new coronavirus lockdowns will hit demand.

“Saudi Arabia put the cherry on the cake and if there is one way to describe what its voluntary cut means for the market, ‘happy hour’ is a pretty fitting term,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets.

Arab States to Restore Ties With #Qatar as Three-Year Rift Ends - Bloomberg

Arab States to Restore Ties With Qatar as Three-Year Rift Ends - Bloomberg

Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud during a press conference on Jan. 5.

 
Photographer: FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP via Getty Images

Four Arab states agreed to fully restore ties with Qatar, Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday, ending a more than three-year dispute that divided the major energy-producing region at a time of heightened tensions over Iran.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt made the pledge after the kingdom hosted a Gulf Cooperation Council summit of regional leaders.

“A resolution of all areas of differences and a restoration of all diplomatic ties” was agreed by the GCC and Egypt, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan told a news conference. “It will be a strong and important foundation to the future of the region and its stability.”

The shift comes two weeks before President Donald Trump, who has led an offensive to weaken Iran, is set to leave office. His successor, Joe Biden, has pledged to engage diplomatically with Tehran if it first returns to the terms of a landmark nuclear deal.

“What we are hearing from the Biden administration shows that they realize the threat” posed by Iran, the Saudi minister said.

Saudis Take Extra Burden of Oil Cuts as OPEC+ Reaches Deal - Bloomberg

Saudis Take Extra Burden of Oil Cuts as OPEC+ Reaches Deal - Bloomberg

OPEC+ reached an agreement to curb supply next month, with Saudi Arabia carrying a greater burden of oil-output cuts while others hold steady or make a small increase, delegates said.

The deal, which emerged after two days of talks, sent crude surging to a 10-month high in New York. It appeared to give most members of the group what they wanted -- the additional price support desired by Saudi Arabia and the production boost Russia had been pushing.

Saudi Arabia didn’t disclose the size of its extra reduction, the delegates said, asking not to be named because the information was private. The last time the kingdom made a unilateral cut, in June last year, it removed an extra 1 million barrels a day of supply from the market.

In contrast, Russia and Kazakhstan will be allowed to boost output in February by a combined 75,000 barrels a day, delegates said. That’s a token increase for the two largest non-OPEC producers in the alliance.

The rest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were nearing a consensus on holding their output steady in February, delegates said.

OPEC+ Near Consensus on Holding Oil Output Steady Next Month - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Near Consensus on Holding Oil Output Steady Next Month - Bloomberg

OPEC+ was nearing a consensus that would hold its oil output steady next month, after the group rejected Russia’s proposal for a production increase.

Negotiations were ongoing and not all details were agreed, one delegate said. Formal ministerial talks scheduled for Tuesday afternoon hadn’t yet started after being pushed back, said another delegate.

If the agreement is finalized, its significance would go beyond the output increase of 500,000 barrels a day the market had, prior to this week, been expecting for February. It also could have some bearing on similar supply boosts traders had penciled in for March and April.

The prevailing view in the group -- that the highly infectious new variant of Covid-19 could undermine the fragile oil-market recovery -- may mean a cautious approach to any production hikes for several months.

Brent crude jumped 3.5% to $52.88 a barrel at 3:17 p.m. in London.

#Qatar leads broader gains on breakthrough in Arab rift | Reuters

Qatar leads broader gains on breakthrough in Arab rift | Reuters

Qatar shares ended 1.4% higher on Tuesday, marking the index’s biggest gain in nearly a month, after a breakthrough was reached in the country’s three-year-old dispute with Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries.

As part of the deal, Saudi Arabia would reopen its airspace and land and sea border to Qatar as Gulf Arab leaders arrived in the Saudi city of al-Ula on Tuesday for a summit focused on ending a long-running dispute with Doha.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic, trade and travel ties with Qatar over allegations that Doha supports terrorism, a charge it denies.

The Gulf’s biggest lender Qatar National Bank was the top gainer on the Qatari benchmark, adding 2.4%, while Qatar Islamic Bank tacked on 1.8%.

Saudi shares finished 0.2% higher, buoyed by a nearly 1% gain in Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC), the world’s fourth-biggest petrochemicals firm.

Lenders Al-Rajhi and National Commercial Bank gained 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively.

Oil prices rose by around $1 as tensions simmered following Iran’s seizure of a South Korean vessel and as the OPEC+ group studied a possible production cut in February. [O/R]

Elsewhere, the Dubai benchmark gained for a third successive session, putting on 1.2%.

The Dubai gains were led by blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and real estate firm Dubai Investments, which advanced 2.9% and 3.9%, respectively.

In Abu Dhabi, the benchmark strengthened 0.6% with telecoms major Etisalat adding 1.3%.

Activity in the United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector grew in December as its Purchasing Managers’ Index, which covers manufacturing and services, rose to 51.2 in December from 49.5 in November, a survey showed. The 50.0-mark separates growth from contraction

Bucking the trend, Bahrain’s main index slumped 1.8%, dragged mainly by a 5.5% decline in Bahrain Commercial Facilities Co

How normalisation of relations will help #Qatar's battered non-oil economy | ZAWYA MENA Edition

How normalisation of relations will help Qatar's battered non-oil economy | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Normalisation of relations between Qatar and its neighbors, signaled by the reopening of borders with Saudi Arabia, will help Qatar’s battered non-oil economy but high public sector debt will remain a drag on the country’s ‘AA-’/Stable sovereign rating, Fitch Ratings said.

Saudi Arabia reopened its airspace and land and sea border to Qatar on Monday after the kingdom, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain had cut diplomatic ties and transport links with Qatar in 2017.

According to a senior Trump administration official, breakthrough had been reached and an agreement aimed at ending the rift will be signed in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, will attend the 41st GCC Summit starting Tuesday. The Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, will also attend the summit.

"A resumption of travel links will eventually lift tourism inflows, and greater interest from regional buyers could support the real estate market, which has been in a multi-year downturn. Nevertheless, high leverage will remain a key rating constraint. We expect Qatar’s general government debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 76 percent in 2020, up from 60 percent in 2017," Krisjanis Krustins, Director, Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Ratings, said.

Fitch Ratings forecast assumes government debt-to-GDP will fall to 64 percent in 2021, driven by the authorities’ stated intention to repay debt using cash reserves built up through surplus bond issuance over the last three years.

OPEC+ Talks Drag as Russian Supply-Hike Proposal Is Rejected - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Talks Drag as Russian Supply-Hike Proposal Is Rejected - Bloomberg

OPEC+ will gather for a second day, following an unexpected suspension of talks on Monday when a majority of members, including Saudi Arabia, opposed Russia’s proposal for a February supply hike.

Ministers need more time to resolve differences over how much extra oil the market can take as the accelerating coronavirus pandemic leads to tighter lockdowns. The extension of the negotiations casts doubt on the production increase of 500,000 barrels a day the market had been expecting for February. It also calls into question similar supply boosts traders had penciled in for March and April.

Differences of opinion between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two de-facto leaders of OPEC+, can make for tricky meetings. While Moscow appeared to be outnumbered on this occasion, the group typically requires a consensus among all members before concluding talks. Failure to reach a compromise is rare but can have damaging consequences, notably last year’s monthlong price war.

Before ministers gather again at 3:30 p.m. Vienna time, they will have the chance to hold bilateral talks and consult with their home governments, delegates said.



OPEC Core’s Exports Edged Higher Before Talks on Output Targets - Bloomberg

OPEC Core’s Exports Edged Higher Before Talks on Output Targets - Bloomberg

OPEC’s Persian Gulf exporters shipped more oil last month than at any time since May, when their current round of output restraint came into effect. The move came before a slight easing of output curbs in January and talks to decide whether to change production targets in February.

Combined shipments of crude and condensate -- a light form of oil extracted from gas fields -- from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait were more than 700,000 barrels a day higher in December than in November. Increased shipments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq more than offset a drop in flows from the UAE, vessel tracking data monitored by Bloomberg show.



The four Persian Gulf nations shipped a total of 14.01 million barrels a day of crude and condensate last month. With 11 million barrels, equivalent to about 360,000 barrels a day, on ships yet to signal a final destination, the volumes delivered to individual countries could rise significantly.

The biggest increase came from Saudi Arabia, where shipments rose to their highest level since April, when the kingdom engaged in a production surge in response to the breakdown of the previous OPEC+ accord.

#Dubai's Emirates NBD hires banks for bond deal - document | Reuters

Dubai's Emirates NBD hires banks for bond deal - document | Reuters

Dubai’s largest bank, Emirates NBD, has mandated banks to arrange an investor call ahead of a planned issuance of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds, a document showed on Tuesday.

The bank hired Emirates NBD Capital, ICBC, ING, Mizuho Securities and Standard Chartered for the potential benchmark deal, which would have a five-year maturity, according to the document.

Benchmark bonds are generally meant to be at least $500 million in size.

UPDATE 1-Gulf economy gets a boost from healing of #Saudi- #Qatar rift | Reuters

UPDATE 1-Gulf economy gets a boost from healing of Saudi-Qatar rift | Reuters

A resolution to Qatar’s three-year-old dispute with Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries will benefit Qatar and its global airline, and advantages could ripple through the whole region as it recovers from lower oil prices and the coronavirus crisis.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed diplomatic ties and transport links with Qatar in 2017 over what they called its support for Islamist militants, an accusation Doha rejected.

On Monday, a senior Trump administration official said a breakthrough had been reached and that an agreement aimed at ending the rift was to be signed in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Riyadh reopened its airspace and land and sea border to Qatar on Monday.

“We should see significant cost saving for some Qatari companies on the fuel and logistics side. With a full removal of the blockade, Qatar Airways stands to benefit significantly on fuel cost, which would help them in offering competitive prices to travellers,” said Joice Mathew, senior research manager at United Securities.

#Saudi, #UAE Business Conditions Improve, Though Employment Falls - Bloomberg

Saudi, UAE Business Conditions Improve, Though Employment Falls - Bloomberg

Business activity in the Arab world’s two largest economies improved at the end of last year, with Saudi Arabia seeing its strongest expansion in 13 months.

After 2020 setbacks caused by the spread of Covid-19 and lower crude prices, non-oil private sector economies in the United Arab Emirates and neighboring Saudi Arabia still faced job losses as firms adjusted to the challenges of the global pandemic.

Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys compiled by IHS Markit in December for the two Gulf nations rose above the threshold of 50 that separates growth from contraction. In Saudi Arabia, the gauge rose to the highest since November 2019, driven by an increase in output and new business.


“The Saudi Arabian non-oil economy is well on the path to recovery,” said David Owen, economist at IHS Markit. “The PMI is now (just) above its series trend level, suggesting the economy is growing at a relatively normal pace, albeit with a lingering output gap to recover.”

MIDEAST STOCKS-Qatari stocks rise as Gulf tensions ease, #Dubai extends gain | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Qatari stocks rise as Gulf tensions ease, Dubai extends gain | Reuters

Qatar’s stock market rose sharply in early Tuesday trade, buoyed by an easing in the Gulf’s more than three-year diplomatic rift, while Dubai climbed for a third session amid growth in the United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sectors.

Saudi Arabia agreed to reopen its airspace and land and sea border to Qatar in a deal towards resolving a dispute that led Riyadh and its allies to impose a boycott on Qatar in 2017.

A Gulf Arab summit will be held later on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia to discuss steps towards ending the diplomatic row. Qatar’s ruling Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani will attend the summit.

“This is a long awaited outcome, and I see it as positive step towards dispute resolution. We should see significant cost saving for some Qatari companies on the fuel and logistics side,” said Joice Mathew, senior research manager at United Securities.

The Qatari index rose 1.8%, with all constituents trading in the green.

Industries Qatar led the gains with a 3.3% jump, while the Gulf’s largest lender, Qatar National Bank, added 2.2%.

Among property stocks, Barwa Real Estae was up 1.2%.

In Saudi Arabia, the index was up 0.2%. Consumer food and beverage company Almarai climbed 3.8%, while the country’s largest lender, National Commercial Bank , was up 0.6%.

The Dubai index was up 0.7%, with Emaar Properties advancing 2.7% in its third straight rise. Dubai Islamic Bank gained 0.6%.

Activity in the United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector grew in December as its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which covers manufacturing and services, rose to 51.2 in December from 49.5 in November, a survey showed. The 50.0-mark separates growth from contraction

Abu Dhabi’s index was down 0.2%, with Abu Dhabi Bank shedding 0.2%.

Oil prices little changed before OPEC+ resumes meeting on Feb output levels | Reuters

Oil prices little changed before OPEC+ resumes meeting on Feb output levels | Reuters

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday before deadlocked talks between major producers about potential changes in February output are set to continue later in the day while fuel demand concerns lingered amid new COVID-19 lockdowns.

Brent crude futures for March fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $51.03 a barrel by 0726 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for February was at $47.63 a barrel, up 1 cent.

Both contracts fell more than 1% on Monday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, failed to agree on changes to February’s oil output.

Saudi Arabia argued against pumping more because of new lockdowns while Russia led calls for higher production, citing recovering demand.

#UAE business conditions improved, but jobs declined further in December | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE business conditions improved, but jobs declined further in December | ZAWYA MENA Edition

The UAE non-oil private sector economy saw a rise in business activity in December, supported by a faster upturn in sales and a strong increase in export demand. Nevertheless, job numbers continued to fall and at an accelerated rate, as backlogs declined, according to IHS Markit.

Its Purchasing Managers’ Index – a composite indicator designed to give an overview of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy rose from 49.5 in November to 51.2 in December, indicating an improvement in the sector's performance.

Price pressures remained weak in December, while the outlook for future activity improved only slightly from November's record low, according to the PMI survey conducted by IHS Markit.

Despite rising to its highest level for 16 months, however, the rate of growth signalled by the index was only mild, it said.