Wednesday, 10 March 2021

Oil ticks up on global economic outlook, plummeting U.S. fuel inventories | Reuters

Oil ticks up on global economic outlook, plummeting U.S. fuel inventories | Reuters

Oil prices rose on Wednesday on an upbeat forecast for global economic recovery and as U.S. gasoline inventories plummeted, but prices were limited due to a surge in crude oil inventories in the aftermath of last month’s Texas winter storm.

Brent crude settled at $67.90 a barrel, gaining 38 cents, or 0.6%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $64.44 a barrel, rising 43 cents, or 0.7%.

U.S. gasoline stocks dropped by 11.9 million barrels last week and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 5.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, sharper than analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.5 million-barrel drop each. [EIA/S]

Crude oil stocks, however, jumped 13.8 million barrels last week, far exceeding forecasts for a 816,000-barrel rise, as the nation’s oil industry continued to feel the effects of a winter storm mid-February that stalled refining and forced production shut-ins in Texas.

Biggest Wealth Funds See Lower Returns on Death of 60/40 Investment Portfolio - Bloomberg video

Biggest Wealth Funds See Lower Returns on Death of 60/40 Investment Portfolio - Bloomberg


Two of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds say investors should expect much lower returns going forward in part because the typical balanced portfolio of 60/40 stocks and bonds no longer works as well in the current rate environment.

Singapore’s GIC Pte and Australia’s Future Fund said global investors have relied on the bond market to simultaneously juice returns for decades, while adding a buffer to their portfolio against equity market risks. Those days are gone with yields largely rising.

“Bonds have been in retrospect this gift,” with a 40-year rally that has boosted all portfolios, said Sue Brake, chief investment officer of Australia’s A$218.3 billion ($168.4 billion) fund. “But that’s over,” she added, saying “replacing it is impossible -- I don’t think there’s any one asset class that could replace it.”

Thanks to declining returns from bonds, the model 60/40 portfolio may eke out real returns -- after inflation -- of just 1%-2% a year over the next decade, said Lim Chow Kiat, chief executive officer of GIC. That compares with gains of 6%-8% over the past 30 to 40 years, he said.

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf stocks gain; blue-chip selloff dents Egypt | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf stocks gain; blue-chip selloff dents Egypt | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Wednesday, supported by gains in the banking sector, while Egyptian stocks retreated due to a broad selloff in blue-chip shares.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index climbed 1.3%, with Al Rajhi Bank gaining over 3% and National Commercial Bank 1180.SE climbing 3.6%.

Oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, whose state coffers have been battered by the COVID-19 pandemic, are set to get some fiscal respite after OPEC and its allies last week agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April.

OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month and that it would decide in the coming months when to gradually phase it out.

The Qatari index closed 1.5% higher, extending gains for a third consecutive session, led by a 3.6% jump in Qatar Islamic Bank .

Elsewhere, Qatar Electricity and Water rose 1.1% after announcing that it would build a new plant in 2027 with a production capacity of 2,600 megawatts of electricity and 100 million gallons of water per day.

In Dubai, the index added 0.4%, helped by a 1.3% gain in Emirates NBD Bank and a 1.4% increase in Emaar Properties.

The index's gains, however, were capped by losses at other blue-chip shares including sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank, which fell 0.6%.

S&P Global Ratings said in a report earlier this month that economic recovery in Dubai would be subdued and its gross domestic product in dollar terms would return to the 2019 level only in 2023.

Dubai's economy - heavily reliant on sectors such as transportation, tourism, and retail shopping - has suffered due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The Abu Dhabi index also concluded 0.4% higher, with telecoms major Etisalat rising 0.8%.

Oil rises on economic outlook, falling U.S. fuel inventories | Reuters

Oil rises on economic outlook, falling U.S. fuel inventories | Reuters

Oil edged up on Wednesday, supported by an upbeat forecast for global economic recovery and OPEC+ oil output curbs as well as a sharp reduction in U.S. fuel inventories.

Brent crude gained 42 cents, or 0.6%, at $67.94 a barrel by 10:47 a.m. EST (1547 GMT) and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $64.41 a barrel.

U.S. gasoline stocks slumped by 11.9 million barrels last week and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 5.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.5 million-barrel drop each.

“That’s probably going to tip the scale to this report to the upside, even though the crude build was substantial,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

#Qatar Ships First Oil Cargo to #UAE Since Gulf Embargo Ended - Bloomberg

Qatar Ships First Oil Cargo to UAE Since Gulf Embargo Ended - Bloomberg

Qatar exported what appeared to be its first oil cargo to a Persian Gulf neighbor since the United Arab Emirates and three other countries agreed to restore ties with Doha in January.

Qatar loaded about 700,000 barrels of oil onto the tanker Abu Dhabi-III on March 4 and the vessel delivered the fuel to Dubai’s Jebel Ali port 3 days later, Bloomberg tanker tracking data show. The exports may be a sign that business is getting back to normal now that the three-and-a-half year suspension of diplomatic and trade ties has come to an end.

Emirates National Oil Co., the government refinery in the UAE business hub Dubai, hired the vessel to transport condensate, the data show. At Jebel Ali, ENOC operates a refinery that uses condensate, a light oil liquid often extracted with natural gas, to make products like jet fuel.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. also purchased some Qatari condensate prior to the embargo that began in 2017, when the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt severed ties with Qatar. The four countries accused Qatar of meddling in their internal affairs, supporting hardline Islamist groups in the Middle East and becoming too close to Iran -- charges that Doha denies.

Why GCC economic recovery will be slow until 2023 | Special-reports – Gulf News

Why GCC economic recovery will be slow until 2023 | Special-reports – Gulf News


The Gulf economies suffered in 2020. That’s true for the rest of the world too. How soon will the Gulf countries recover from the recession wrought by the perfect storm of the COVID-19 outbreak, sustained low oil prices and geopolitical challenges?

This is the first of a four-part series on the health of the Gulf economy.


What’s IMF's 2021 outlook?


Sound policies and robust reserves are keeping GCC economies resilient. Most of them are on the recovery path. But a complete turnaround will be slow. That’s what economists, rating agencies, multi-lateral agencies, and global think tanks say, citing international and domestic economic conditions.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast for 2021 and the year ahead are not very encouraging. It expects the GCC’s GDP growth to return to the 2019 level only in 2023. IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook published in January has no new forecast for the region except Saudi Arabia.

GCC’s largest economy, Saudi Arabia, is expected to record a 2.6 per cent growth in 2021. Last year’s estimated contraction has been revised upwards to 3.9 per cent from the October projection of 5.4 per cent contraction. Saudi growth is likely to be faster in 2022 at 4 per cent.

Since the 2021 outlook update does not include forecasts on the UAE and other Gulf countries, the October outlook stands good. The conservative estimates are the result of low oil prices, COVID-19 fallout and conflicts in the region.





Templeton Looks to U.S. Real Yields for a Signal to Buy EM Dip - Bloomberg

Templeton Looks to U.S. Real Yields for a Signal to Buy EM Dip - Bloomberg

Franklin Templeton’s Mohieddine Kronfol is joining the ranks of fund managers scanning for signs it’s time to pile into emerging markets left battered by the Treasury-led selloff.

U.S. 10-year real yields above zero will be the trigger for the Dubai-based chief investment officer for Middle Eastern and North African fixed income. He’ll be watching to see which bonds get punished most in the ensuing slump.

It’s an approach that’s proving popular with some of the world’s biggest investment firms, from JPMorgan Asset Management to Ashmore Group Plc. They’re betting any turmoil will be a temporary setback as vaccine efficacy and President Joe Biden’s stimulus package power a global economic upswing.



#Saudi Wealth Fund Raises Year’s Third-Biggest Loan for New Deals - Bloomberg

Saudi Wealth Fund Raises Year’s Third-Biggest Loan for New Deals - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund obtained the third-biggest loan of the year so far as it raises money for new investments.

The Public investment Fund signed the $15 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility with 17 banks from Asia, the Middle East, Europe, the U.K. and the U.S., according to a statement on Wednesday. The loan “provides PIF with access to additional capital that can be deployed at speed when convenient,” it said.

The facility is the biggest loan the PIF has ever secured. This year it’s behind only Verizon Communications Inc.’s $25 billion deal signed last month and a $24 billion loan announced by AerCap Holdings NV on Wednesday. The fund more than doubled the size of the amount it was planning to raise after initially targeting up to $7 billion, Bloomberg reported last month.

The $400 billion sovereign investor is key to the kingdom’s efforts to revive economic growth after a recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to stabilize oil prices with output cuts by an alliance of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Handed $40 billion earlier this year to buy global stocks, the PIF plans to plow the same amount into the domestic economy this year and again in 2022.

The fund has also received cash injections in the form of the $30 billion proceeds from the sale of shares in Saudi Aramco.

The PIF is funded through a mixture of borrowing, cash and asset transfers from the government, and retained earnings from its investments. Chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and managed by Governor Yasir Al Rumayyan, the fund has outlined a plan to grow its assets to over 4 trillion riyals ($1.1 trillion) by 2025.

#SaudiArabia Vows Steps to Ensure Oil Supply, Deter Attacks - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Vows Steps to Ensure Oil Supply, Deter Attacks - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia will take measures to ensure global energy security and deter attacks on its oil infrastructure, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said in Riyadh on Wednesday, days after a missile and drone assault on Saudi Aramco facilities.

The attack on Sunday targeted a key crude installation of the state oil company and was claimed by Iran-backed fighters in neighboring Yemen who are battling a Saudi-led coalition. It was intercepted but represented a serious escalation, stirring regional tensions at a time when U.S. President Joe Biden aims to re-enter nuclear diplomacy with Tehran.

“The failed attempts to target the port of Ras Tanura do not only target the security of the economy and Saudi Arabia. They target the global economy and its oil supplies and the global energy security,” Prince Faisal said at a press conference alongside his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

“The kingdom will take necessary and deterrent measures to protect its national resources to preserve global energy security and stop the terrorist attacks to ensure stability of energy supplies and security of petroleum exports,” he said.

#SaudiArabia's PIF signs $15 billion loan | Reuters

Saudi Arabia's PIF signs $15 billion loan | Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, said on Wednesday it has signed a $15 billion multi-currency revolving credit facility with a group of 17 banks, which it said gives it access to extra capital that can be deployed quickly when needed.

Reuters reported last month that PIF could raise between $13 billion and $15 billion, according to one source. Sources said the one-year facility could be renewed four times.

#Dubai Business Hub’s Profit Slumps as Virus Relief Weighs - Bloomberg

Dubai Business Hub’s Profit Slumps as Virus Relief Weighs - Bloomberg

The Dubai International Financial Centre.

 Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg


Dubai International Financial Centre, the city’s tax-free business hub, posted a 74% drop in profit as coronavirus-related measures weighed on its earnings.

Full-year profit net income fell to $31 million from $118 million a year ago, while revenue declined about 8% to $186 million. Click here for financial report

The DIFC last year provided relief measures to support entities operating at the business hub to cope with the coronavirus pandemic. It included reduction in application fees, waiver of registration fees, and temporary relief from capital requirements.

The DIFC is home to the regional offices of banks including Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. The number of new firms operating in the DIFC grew 20% last year, taking the total to 2,919, it said Tuesday. Click here for statement on new firms

Bailout Gambit Is No Longer What Props Up #Oman Debt for JPMorgan - Bloomberg

Bailout Gambit Is No Longer What Props Up Oman Debt for JPMorgan - Bloomberg

Cash-strapped Oman is getting a shot at redemption with investors without recourse to a bailout from wealthier neighbors.

A year after the sultanate’s bonds approached distressed territory and its government discussed the possibility of financial aid from other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it’s following through on a turnaround plan that enables it to go it alone, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“This time around it’s not about GCC support,” Hani Deaibes, the U.S. bank’s head of debt capital markets for the Middle East and North Africa, said in a phone interview from Dubai. “It’s about Oman’s own strategy and the implementation” of its fiscal adjustment plan known as Tawazun, he said.






DXBE shareholders approve $1bln Meraas debt conversion | ZAWYA MENA Edition

DXBE shareholders approve $1bln Meraas debt conversion | ZAWYA MENA Edition

DXB Entertainment (DXBE) has announced that it will transfer AED 4.27 billion ($1.16 billion) debt to Dubai developer Meraas Leisure and Entertainment Ltd in exchange for 53 billion ordinary shares at a conversion rate of AED 0.08.

Shareholders agreed at its general assembly yesterday (Monday) that the company would convert its debts with Emirates NBD into ordinary shares valued at AED 1 each in the share capital of the company, at a conversion price of AED 0.08 per share, the company said in a statement to Dubai Financial Market (DFM).

The shareholders of the theme park operator also authorised an increase in share capital from AED 53 billion to AED 62.8 billion, as well as the listing of the conversion shares on DFM.

The company said 81 percent of shareholders attended the meeting and approved all resolutions.

The shares of those who accepted the offer would now be registered to Meraas in DXBE’s shareholders register, the company said.

DXBE operates Dubai Parks & Resorts, which incorporates Legoland Dubai, Motiongate Dubai, Bollywood Parks Dubai and Legoland Water Park Dubai, as well as hotels.

The company’s board recommended shareholders accept Meraas’s cash offer last month, after losses widened to AED 7.8 billion in 2020.

#UAE brings brokers, gems dealers, auditors under anti-money laundering review | ZAWYA MENA Edition

UAE brings brokers, gems dealers, auditors under anti-money laundering review | ZAWYA MENA Edition

The UAE’s ministry of economy has directed brokers and real estate agents, dealers of precious metals and gemstones, auditors, corporate service providers, among others to register in anti-money laundering systems before March 31 to avoid hefty fines.

The ministry has asked the business community and the Designated Non-Financial Businesses and Professions (DNFBPs) to register in the Financial Intelligence Unit and the Committee for Commodities Subject to Import and Export Control system by March 31, in order to avoid penalties, including revocation of the their licenses and the closure of facilities that are found to be non-complaint.

The is part of the initiatives taken by the ministry to combat money laundering and financing of terrorism in the UAE.

Fines may range from 50,000 dirhams to 5 million dirhams based on the provisions of the law and according to the estimation of the Supreme Committee for Combating Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism and Illegal Organizations, the ministry said in a statement.

Oil slips for third session before U.S. inventories EIA data | Reuters

Oil slips for third session before U.S. inventories EIA data | Reuters

Oil fell for a third straight session on Wednesday as investors took profits while looking ahead to U.S. inventories data due later in the day for pointers on where prices will head next.

Brent crude for May dropped 63 cents, or 0.9%, to $66.89 a barrel by 0721 GMT, after earlier hitting an intraday low of $66.50, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April was at $63.47 a barrel, down 54 cents, or 0.8%.

Prices gained support last week from the OPEC+ decision to largely maintain production cuts in April. They then initially jumped on Monday, with Brent rising above $70 a barrel, after attacks by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi’s oil heartland, before settling back as the alarm subsided.

“It’s a realisation that there was no impact on supply from the attack,” Virendra Chauhan, a Singapore-based analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects said.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Banks lift #Saudi index; other markets little changed | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Banks lift Saudi index; other markets little changed | Nasdaq

Gains in banks helped Saudi Arabian shares rise for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, while other major Gulf markets traded little changed.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index advanced 1%, with Al Rajhi Bank gaining 2.3% and National Commercial Bank (NCB) advancing 2.4%.

Oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, whose state coffers have been battered by the COVID-19 pandemic, are set to get some fiscal respite after OPEC and its allies last week agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April.

OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month and that it would decide in the coming months to gradually phase it out.

The Qatari index rose 0.5%, set for a third consecutive session of gains.

Utility company Qatar Electricity and Water firmed 2.9% after announcing that it would build a new plant in 2027 with a production capacity of 2,600 megawatts of electricity and 100 million gallons of water per day.

In Dubai, the index eased 0.6%, weighed down by a 0.9% decline in Emirates' largest lender, Emirates NBD , and a 0.6% fall in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank .

S&P Global Ratings said in a report earlier this month that economic recovery in Dubai would be subdued and its gross domestic product in dollar terms would return to the 2019 level only in 2023.

Dubai's economy - heavily reliant on sectors such as transportation, tourism, and retail shopping - has suffered due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The Abu Dhabi index was down 0.1%, as market heavyweight First Abu Dhabi Bank declined 0.3%.

Consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) said on Tuesday that the pandemic would continue to affect profitability for banks in the United Arabia Emirates in the early quarters of 2021, after a sharp drop in return on equity last year.