Thursday 18 March 2021

Oil hits skids, drops 7% on worsening outlook for coronavirus in Europe | Reuters

Oil hits skids, drops 7% on worsening outlook for coronavirus in Europe | Reuters

Oil prices plunged for a fifth day in a row on Thursday, posting their biggest-one day declines since last summer on growing worries about rising COVID-19 cases in Europe and the strengthening U.S. dollar.

Several large European economies have had to reimpose lockdowns as caseloads rise, while vaccination programs are slowing due to concerns about side effects of the AstraZeneca vaccine that was being widely distributed in Europe.

U.S. heating oil and gasoline also both fell more than 5%.

“A best-case scenario for demand recovery had been priced into this market. Everyone was celebrating the vaccine rollout and reduced restrictions,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

“Now in Europe, it’s gone off the rails almost completely. Lockdowns in Poland and Italy strike at the heart of this whole demand recovery narrative and thesis that pumped up prices.”

Brent futures dropped $4.72, or 6.9%, to settle at $63.28 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas International (WTI) crude fell $4.60, or 7.1%, to settle at $60.

#UAE economy to post 2.5% growth this year after 5.8% contraction - central bank | Reuters

UAE economy to post 2.5% growth this year after 5.8% contraction - central bank | Reuters

The United Arab Emirates economy shrank by 5.8% last year but is expected to post a 2.5% growth this year, the UAE central bank said in a report on Thursday.

The coronavirus crisis last year had a severe impact on the Gulf state, due the twin shock of low oil prices and the impact on vital non-oil economic sectors such as tourism.

Real non-hydrocarbon gross domestic product declined by 5.7% last year, according to central bank estimates.

The Data Showing Why OPEC+ Could Keep Oil Supply Curbed - Bloomberg

The Data Showing Why OPEC+ Could Keep Oil Supply Curbed - Bloomberg

Oil stockpiles may be coming down, but the world’s big producers can’t afford to relax their hold on production for a while yet. The recovery this year will return less than two-thirds of oil demand lost in 2020 and output restraint will be needed for many months to come.

The world’s three major oil agencies — the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — are moving toward to a consensus that sees year-on-year global oil demand growth in 2021 at somewhere near 5.5 million barrels a day, close to where the IEA pegged it when it first began publishing detailed forecasts for the year, back in July.

At that time, its view looked pessimistic, with the agency seeing growth about 1.5 million barrels a day lower than its counterparts, but the EIA and OPEC have repeatedly trimmed their forecasts since then (see chart below).



Major Gulf markets end mixed, Eastern Co drags Egypt | Reuters

Major Gulf markets end mixed, Eastern Co drags Egypt | Reuters

Major stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Thursday, with the Saudi index falling the most, while Egypt was pressured by tobacco monopoly Eastern Company.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index dropped 1.2%, pulled down by its banking shares including Al Rajhi Bank, which declined 3.7%.

Oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets, after an increase in U.S. crude and fuel inventories while the ever-present COVID-19 pandemic clouded the prospects for demand recovery. [O/R]

Indian state refiners are planning to cut oil imports from Saudi Arabia by about a quarter in May, in an escalating stand-off with Riyadh following OPEC’s decision to ignore calls from New Delhi to help the global economy with higher supply.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index retreated 1.3%, dragged down by a 10% slide in Eastern Company, its biggest intraday fall since November.

Eastern Company, the country’s top cigarette maker, commented on a news report following the Egyptian government’s intention to issue a new licence for cigarette production in the local market.

The company asserted the issuance of operating licences in the country is an inherent right of the Egyptian government through the Industrial Development Authority, and that the firm is not a party to this decision, and it does not have any official information regarding this.

Also, Eastern Company revealed it is studying several investment projects which will help enhance its position in the tobacco market.

In Dubai, the main share index edged up 0.1%, supported by a 1.7% rise in top lender Emirates NBD.

Qatar’s benchmark advanced 0.9%, led by a 2.1% gain in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar.

Elsewhere, Qatar International Islamic Bank, which traded ex-dividend, reversed earlier losses to finish 2.7% higher.

“With the Fed committed to increase economic expansion despite the risk of inflation, GCC markets - many of which are tied to the dollar - can heave a sigh of relief for now,” Michael Stark, research analyst at Exness, said.

The Abu Dhabi index eased 0.2%, hit by a 1.1% fall in telecoms major Etisalat.

Earlier in the session, Etisalat rose over a percent after shareholders approved second-half dividend for the year 2020. The firm also approved 49% ownership of non-UAE nationals, up from 20% earlier.

Debt Adviser Talks Hint at Discord on Binladin Restructuring - Bloomberg

Debt Adviser Talks Hint at Discord on Binladin Restructuring - Bloomberg

A debt restructuring proposal designed to prevent the collapse of construction giant Saudi Binladin Group may face more scrutiny from creditors.

The lenders that want a bigger say in the process have held discussions with Rothschild & Co. and may decide to appoint the investment bank in the coming weeks, the people said, declining to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Talks are ongoing, and no final decisions have been made, the people said. Creditors may also choose to hire another adviser or none at all, they said.

While it’s not unusual for creditors to seek an independent counsel, they are acting almost a year after Binladin hired Houlihan Lokey Inc. as an adviser for what would be one of the Middle East’s biggest debt revamps. The plan is a response to what banks deem to be the lack of transparency that surrounds the process and an approach by Houlihan that they fear will result in a one-sided deal, according to the people.



Gulf's banking sector ripe for wave of mergers as profitability declines | The National

Gulf's banking sector ripe for wave of mergers as profitability declines | The National

A new wave of mergers and acquisitions could take place within the GCC's banking sector as profit margins are pressured due to pandemic-induced headwinds, according to S&P Global Ratings.

The need for recapitalisation as provisions for bad loans rise and the asset quality deteriorates also supports the case for the consolidation of financial institutions in the region, Mohamed Damak, senior director for financial institutions ratings, said.

“Ultimately, lower profitability could start a new wave of M&A, and we think this wave, if it starts, will be different from what we have been observing so far,” Mr Damak told a webinar on Wednesday.

“It might involve consolidation across different GCC countries, or consolidation across different emirates here [in the UAE].”

Profits for most regional lenders, like their international peers, shrunk last year as they proactively allocated funds to cover potential loan losses. Loan book growth has also slowed and margins are under pressure amid historically low interest rates.

#SaudiArabia Spent $4.5 Billion Aiding Firms During Pandemic - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia Spent $4.5 Billion Aiding Firms During Pandemic - Bloomberg

The Saudi Industrial Development Fund said it provided $4.5 billion in support last year, mostly to small businesses, as the kingdom looked to prop up firms hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

Loans were given to 201 businesses in the industrial, mining, energy and logistics sectors,” the fund said in a statement Thursday. The $4.5 billion included some loans not related to the global health emergency, it said.

The figures shed more light on the scale of the kingdom’s assistance for smaller companies, which also included a $20.5 billion loan deferral program put in place by the central bank.

The industrial fund, created in the 1970s, was established to provide medium and long-term loans to the private industrial sector. In June, it launched initiatives worth about $1 billion to support more than 500 industrial businesses hurt by the virus. It included deferment and restructuring of loan installments.

New Alliances Link Gulf Arab States to the Eastern Mediterranean - Bloomberg

New Alliances Link Gulf Arab States to the Eastern Mediterranean - Bloomberg

New economic and security alliances are emerging in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, tying Arab states to Greece, Cyprus and Israel, with potentially transformative effects on both regions. The relationships are based on rapidly converging interests — among them, tensions between these countries and regional powers Iran and Turkey — and undergirded by energy and security partnerships.

The new alliances represent geopolitical and economic realities that have changed a great deal since the end of the Cold War, which had for decades formed the basis of regional alignments. More recently, the overthrow of dictators from Iraq to Libya, coupled with diminishing American appetite for involvement in the Middle East, led to a power vacuum that Iran and Turkey have sought to fill.

This in turn has prompted countries in the region to band together in ways previously thought impossible — or unnecessary. The threat of Iran helped the UAE and Bahrain overcome their longstanding hostility toward Israel, leading to the Abraham Accords. Greece is not in the same neighborhood as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but the three countries share a wariness of Turkish ambitions in their respective backyards, and are seeking closer security ties. Emirati and Saudi jets have joined Greek military drills.

Aside from multinational military exercises, there have also been multilateral diplomatic gatherings, such as the Philia Forum in Athens last month, attended by Greece, Israel, Cyprus, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the UAE. And then there are economic arrangements, such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, which brings together Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, along with Italy and France.

Port operator DP World sees 2020 profits drop 29% amid virus

Port operator DP World sees 2020 profits drop 29% amid virus

Dubai-based port operator DP World announced Thursday its profits slid 29% in 2020 from the previous year to $846 million, as the coronavirus pandemic froze supply chains and upended the world’s trade flows.

The port operator, which delisted from the stock exchange and returned to full state-ownership last June, stressed that it defied analysts’ low expectations for global trade over the difficult period. The maritime firm, one of the world’s largest, has faced various challenges with the virus surging, regional tensions rising and trade wars continuing.

In its annual report, DP World said its revenue in 2020 climbed 11% to $8.53 million, a rise it attributed to a year of acquisitions. DP World reported revenues of $7.68 billion and profits of $1.19 billion in 2019. The port operator’s delisting from the stock exchange came as its parent company, Dubai World, sought to repay more than $5 billion to banks.

Despite dismal predictions of slumping global trade last spring, DP World said the container terminal industry has shown resilience, pivoting to automation and digital investment. In recent months, the company has done brisk business. DP World struck a $4.5 billion deal with one of Canada’s biggest pension-fund managers to expand its footprint in Europe and Asia Pacific last fall. It won several lucrative concessions this year to build vast ports and logistics hubs in Indonesia, Senegal and Angola.

#Dubai's DP World to be selective on new investments, remains cautious for 2021 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Dubai's DP World to be selective on new investments, remains cautious for 2021 | ZAWYA MENA Edition

DP World Group Chairman and CEO Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem said he was cautious about the outlook for 2021 and will be selective on new investments.

“Looking ahead, we will continue to be selective on new investments and focus on the integration of our recent acquisitions to drive synergies, containing costs to protect profitability and managing growth capex to preserve cashflow. We remain strongly committed to our 2022 combined (DP World and PFZW) leverage target of less than 4x Net Debt to EBITDA," Sulayem said.

The state-owned port operator said its ability to adapt and change has been key to its success and that the company will evolve for continued growth.

According to a Nasdaq Dubai filing, the company reported a 29% slump in 2020 profit. Its revenue rose 11 percent to $8.5 billion but posted an annual profit of $846 million, down from $1.19 billion in 2019.

Oil Risks Worst Losing Run in More Than a Year as Rally Frays - Bloomberg

Oil Risks Worst Losing Run in More Than a Year as Rally Frays - Bloomberg

Oil’s rally in 2021 has hit a rocky patch after U.S. stockpiles rose and the International Energy Agency said supplies are plentiful.

West Texas Intermediate retreated for a fifth straight day, putting the U.S. benchmark on course for the longest losing run in more than a year. Brent also declined in London, with traders assessing global supply risks alongside a patchy recovery in consumption even as the coronavirus pandemic ebbs.



In a fresh blow, the market for physical barrels in Asia is showing signs of weakness, with muted buying from some in China. Spot differentials for cargoes set to be loaded in April or May from the Middle East and Russia -- which make up a large portion of the oil used by Asian refiners -- have dipped.

Oil prices have backtracked this week despite the surprise OPEC+ decision earlier this month to extend output cuts, and the vaccine breakthroughs that had underpinned a narrative of a tightening market. OPEC and its allies could quickly deploy spare capacity to quash rallies, the IEA said in a report, while adding that demand won’t return to pre-virus levels until 2023.

“Oil could trade in a range for the moment,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. While the rise in U.S. crude stockpiles probably soured near-term sentiment, “given the pace of global vaccination and economic recovery, we remain bullish on the energy complex,” said Lee.


#Saudi Jobs for Saudis Is Crown Prince’s Generational Challenge - Bloomberg

Saudi Jobs for Saudis Is Crown Prince’s Generational Challenge - Bloomberg

After months without steady work, Saudi computer specialist Abdullateef Al Jarfan donned the red graduation gown from his U.S. master’s degree and began selling homemade tea by the roadside.

The 32-year-old hoped his gimmick would attract customers but, within hours, a video of him on social media had gone viral, making Jarfan the face of unemployment in Saudi Arabia.

“I was applying to jobs and waiting for a breakthrough, but I couldn’t just sit at home,” he said. “I needed to do something.”

Job creation is the biggest domestic challenge facing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he reshapes an economy long dependent on exported oil and imported labor. Unemployment hit a record 15% last year, when Covid-19 set back the de facto ruler’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan to transform the conservative Islamic kingdom into a regional business and tourism hub.



Oil's decline continues as inventories rise, demand recovery clouded | Reuters

Oil's decline continues as inventories rise, demand recovery clouded | Reuters

Oil prices declined for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday falling around 1% after official data showed a further increase in U.S. crude and fuel inventories, while the ever-present pandemic clouded the prospects for a demand recovery.

Brent crude was down 74 cents, or 1.1%, at $67.26 a barrel by 0745 GMT after dropping 0.6% on Wednesday. U.S. oil was also down 65 cents, or 1%, at $63.95 a barrel, having fallen 0.3% the previous session. Both contracts are down around 3% over the last five days of declines.

Government data on Wednesday showed U.S. crude inventories have risen for four straight weeks after refineries in the south were forced to shut due to severe cold weather. An industry report estimating a decline had raised hopes the run of gains might have stopped.

U.S. crude inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. That was a day after the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday estimated a 1 million barrel-decline.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most major Gulf indexes rebound on global rally; #Qatar slips | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Most major Gulf indexes rebound on global rally; Qatar slips | Nasdaq

Most Gulf stock markets rose in early trade on Thursday, tracking global markets, after the U.S. Federal Reserve committed to maintaining accommodative monetary policy and projected a rapid jump in U.S. economic growth this year as the COVID-19 crisis eases.

Saudi's benchmark stock index .TASI rebounded 1%, buoyed by a 0.6% gain in Saudi Arabia Mining company 1211.SE and a 0.3% increase in oil company Saudi Aramco 2222.SE before its financial result for year ending on March 21.

In Dubai, the index .DFMGI was up 0.5%, supported by a 1.2% rise in top lender Emirates NBD ENBD.DU and a 0.8% gain in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties EMAR.DU.

The Abu Dhabi index .ADI was up 0.4%, with telecoms company Etisalat ETISALAT.AD increasing 1.2%.

Etisalat's shareholders approved a dividend of 40 fils per share for the second half of 2020 and a one-time special dividend of 40 fils per share.

Shareholders also approved 49% ownership of non-UAE nationals, up from 20% earlier.

However, the Qatari index .QSI retreated 0.1%, pressured by a 3.9% fall in Qatar International Islamic Bank QIIB.QA, as the stock went ex-dividend.