Tuesday 13 July 2021

Oil rises nearly 2% as investors size up tight market | Reuters

Oil rises nearly 2% as investors size up tight market | Reuters

Oil prices gained almost 2% on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency said the market should expect tighter supply for now due to disagreements among major producers over how much additional crude to ship worldwide.

The market has been generally stronger as demand has rebounded and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies have held millions of barrels of supply from the market. OPEC+, as the group is known, was expected to boost supply, but discussions broke off without an agreement.

Brent crude rose $1.33, or 1.8%, to settle at $76.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.15, or 1.6%, to settle at $75.25 a barrel.

The Paris-based IEA said global storage drawdowns in the third quarter were set to be the biggest in at least a decade, citing early June stock draws from the United States, Europe and Japan.

“You’re still not going to have enough crude oil on the market to avoid a supply deficit by the end of the year. That was definitely a tailwind for the market,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho.

ADCB's Malik Sees Signs of Persistent Inflation - Bloomberg video

ADCB's Malik Sees Signs of Persistent Inflation - Bloomberg


Monica Malik, Chief Economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank discusses the upcoming U.S. CPI data and the prospect of monetary tightening by the Fed. She speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din and Manus Cranny on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

KSA, #Oman To Cooperate For Oil Market Stability - Bloomberg video

KSA, Oman To Cooperate For Oil Market Stability - Bloomberg


Tarek Fadlallah, CEO at Nomura Asset Management, Middle East discusses Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's economic outlook and the real estate sector in the UAE. He speaks with Yousef Gamal El-Din and Manus Cranny on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." (Source: Bloomberg)

#Kuwait Looks to Gas Imports as Gulf States Aim to Burn Less Oil - Bloomberg

Kuwait Looks to Gas Imports as Gulf States Aim to Burn Less Oil - Bloomberg

The Al-Zour LNG terminal, Kuwait. Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Co.

Kuwait has opened its first permanent facility to import liquefied natural gas, as oil-rich Persian Gulf states accelerate efforts to wean their power plants off crude and use cleaner forms of energy.

The Al Zour LNG terminal received its first cargo of gas, from Qatar, on Monday, according to state news agency Kuna.

The plant, roughly 10 miles from Kuwait’s border with Saudi Arabia, is designed to import as much as 22 million tons of the super-chilled gas each year, making it easily the largest of its kind in the Middle East.

“Gas demand in Kuwait is set to rise in the power sector due to the planned phase-out of oil plants worth 10 gigawatts,” Abhishek Rohatgi, an LNG analyst at BloombergNEF, said in a note. “Gas-demand growth is likely to outpace domestic production growth from the Jurassic fields, raising LNG imports.”

BloombergNEF expects LNG use in the Middle East to increase almost 50% by 2025, with most of the increase coming from Kuwait.

Several of its neighbors are also trying to phase out oil from domestic use. Saudi Arabia aims to stop burning as much as 1 million barrels a day of crude in its power plants by 2030, instead using solar, wind and natural gas. Iraq is spending billions of dollars to ramp up gas output.

The Gulf Arab economies are among the world’s biggest oil consumers on a per capita basis, in part because of their heavy use of crude in their electricity grids.

Kuwait, one of OPEC’s biggest oil producers, needs to buy LNG from abroad since it pumps little gas of its own. The oil diverted from power plants will probably be exported.

The country has a 15-year contract with state-owned Qatar Petroleum to buy 3 million tons of LNG a year for Al Zour. It plans to buy another 3.5 million tons a year from other suppliers. Until now, Kuwait has mostly imported LNG via floating storage and re-gasification units.

Oil Little Changed Amid Stronger Dollar With Supply Deficit Seen - Bloomberg

Oil Little Changed Amid Stronger Dollar With Supply Deficit Seen - Bloomberg

PRICES
  • West Texas Intermediate for August delivery fell 17 cents to $73.93 a barrel at 10:41 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
  • Brent for September settlement rose 5 cents to $75.21 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.



OPEC+ impasse means tight oil market now, volatility ahead, says IEA | Reuters

OPEC+ impasse means tight oil market now, volatility ahead, says IEA | Reuters

The oil market will see tighter supply for now amid a dispute inside OPEC+ about how to ease production curbs but it still faces the risk of a dash for market share if disagreement persists, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

The Paris-based agency said oil prices would be volatile until differences were resolved among members of OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers. read more

"The OPEC+ stalemate means that until a compromise can be reached, production quotas will remain at July's levels. In that case, oil markets will tighten significantly as demand rebounds from last year's COVID-induced plunge," an IEA report said.

OPEC+ has been slowly unwinding record output curbs agreed last year to cope with the pandemic. But a dispute over policy between Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates this month meant plans to pump more oil by the end of 2021 were put on hold.

MIDEAST STOCKS Most major Gulf bourses gain, tracking oil prices; Qatar eases | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS Most major Gulf bourses gain, tracking oil prices; Qatar eases | Reuters


Most major stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Tuesday, mirroring gains in oil prices as tight supply and expectations of a further draw in U.S. and global crude inventories provided support.

Oil prices are forecast to increase as supply falls short while global demand soars, said Michael Stark, research analyst at Exness.

"OPEC has effectively taken initiatives to protect price levels and market share along with other non-OPEC oil producers."

GCC markets ended on a positive note, with Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) gaining 0.4%, led by a 2.7% leap in Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services (4013.SE) and a 0.6% increase in oil behemoth Saudi Aramco (2222.SE).

Meanwhile, Aramco has dropped Morgan Stanley (MS.N) as an adviser for the sale of its gas pipelines, and picked JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) for the role, Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the matter. read more

Brent crude for September rose 41 cents, or 0.6%, to $75.57 a barrel by 1225 GMT.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.ADI) added 0.3%, with Emirates Telecommunications Group (ETISALAT.AD) gaining 1.3% and Aldar Properties (ALDAR.AD) rising 1.8%.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) edged up 0.1%, supported by a 0.8% rise in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU).

The Qatari index (.QSI) fell 0.1%, hit by a 2.7% fall in Qatar Gas Transport (QGTS.QA).

The logistic firm reported a decline in its revenue for the first-half of 2021, but posted a higher net profit of 635.2 million riyals ($171.79 million), compared with 549.1 million riyals a year earlier.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) climbed 1.9%, as most of the stocks on the index were in positive territory including Fawry for Banking Technology and Electronics (FWRY.CA), which was up 10%.

Flydubai revises Boeing 737 Max order in latest fleet review

Flydubai revises Boeing 737 Max order in latest fleet review

Flydubai will reduce its order of Boeing 737 Max aircraft by slightly more than 25 per cent as part of a fleet review amid the Covid-19 pandemic that has severely affected the global aviation industry.

The budget airline reached an agreement with the US plane maker to reduce its order from 237 aircraft to 172, a flydubai spokeswoman said on Tuesday.

"The changes to flydubai’s aircraft order follows a review of its fleet plans in line with the airline’s strategy of rebuilding the travel sector following the Covid-19 pandemic and the changing dynamics of the airline’s route structure," flydubai said.

The Covid-19 pandemic hit the global aviation industry hard, forcing airlines to preserve cash by grounding aircraft, deferring or cancelling plane deliveries and laying off or furloughing employees.

The Chicago-based company has been trying to restore confidence in the 737 Max – its best-selling model – that recently resumed flights after a two-year global ban prompted by two fatal crashes.

"We value our strong partnership with flydubai and regret the significant impact that the 737 Max grounding has had on their business," Boeing said.

"We are pleased to have reached a solution that helps them manage through that and the impact of the pandemic, and adjust their fleet requirements accordingly."

The all-Boeing operator adjusted the plane orders it placed in 2013 and 2017 during the Dubai Airshow, where it made headlines with record aircraft purchases.

The state-owned airline currently has a fleet of 52 Boeing 737 jets. Of these, it operates 13 Max 8s and three Max 9s. It also has 36 Boeing 737-800s, the predecessor to the Max.

VC funding soars across MENA amidst pandemic recovery | ZAWYA MENA Edition

VC funding soars across MENA amidst pandemic recovery | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Venture capital funding in the MENA has soared year-on-year as the region recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.

MAGNiTT’s H1 2021 Middle East and North African (MENA) Venture Report showed a huge increase in the first half of the year compared with 2020, when funding activity was suppressed by the pandemic.

In Turkey, funding reached $1.46 billion, increasing 858 percent, compared with the first half of 2020, across 124 transactions, an increase of 110 percent.

In the MENA region, funding was up by 60 percent to $1.228 billion. However, the number of transactions were fewer at 254, a 20 percent decline compared to the first half of 2020.

In Pakistan, funding was $87 million, up 296 percent, and across 27 transactions, an increase of 50 percent compared to H1 2020.

Start-up platform MAGNiTT said funding in the MENA region increased by 12 percent from full year 2020, marking a quarterly and half-yearly record high level of capital deployed.

The UAE led investment growth by number of deals and funding, acquiring 61 percent of all MENA investments. The top three MENA hubs, the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia accumulated 71 percent of capital deployed.

The food and beverage sector took the biggest share of MENA funding in the first half of 2021, while the highest number of deals were closed by fintech startups.

Arab Spring Redux? Middle East Most Exposed to Food Prices: Map - Bloomberg

Arab Spring Redux? Middle East Most Exposed to Food Prices: Map - Bloomberg


International food prices have risen close to their 2011 peak. Ten years ago, they triggered waves of protests, especially in the Middle East. The region is still exposed today -- seven of the 10 most-exposed emerging market economies are in the Middle East according to Bloomberg Economics’ food vulnerability scorecard -- but its weakest links are Sudan and Lebanon instead of Egypt and Tunisia, with Yemen rounding off the top three.

Higher Oil Income Will Boost #Saudi Saving Not Spending, IMF Says - Bloomberg

Higher Oil Income Will Boost Saudi Saving Not Spending, IMF Says - Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia is likely to use surplus oil revenue to rebuild reserves, breaking with its historical practice of boosting spending when crude prices rise, according to the International Monetary Fund.

“The message that we very strongly got was that the expenditure path set out in the budget will be stuck to, regardless of where oil prices go to, which I think is the right thing to do,” Tim Callen, the IMF mission chief to the kingdom, said in an interview late Monday. Sticking to targeted spending “allows you then to really build the financial assets that have been run down in recent years.”

Crude prices around $75 a barrel are only slightly lower than what Saudi Arabia needs to balance the budget, according to IMF estimates. They may rise further as the global economy rebounds from the impact of the pandemic and the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday that the oil market would remain tight unless Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies boost production.

“In the past, the weakness of the Saudi budget process was as oil prices go up spending would go up, and when prices turn around you then have to make difficult decisions,” Callen said. “We don’t think that pro-cyclicality is helpful for the economy, so it’s exactly right to stick with the expenditure as it was set out, even if oil prices are higher.”

Saudi Arabia set spending this year at 990 billion riyals ($264 billion), while revenue is projected to rise to 849 billion riyals. As a result of that deficit, and transfers to the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, net foreign assets dropped to their lowest level in about 10 years in May.



More than half of Middle East sovereigns saw drawdowns in 2020: Invesco | ZAWYA MENA Edition

More than half of Middle East sovereigns saw drawdowns in 2020: Invesco | ZAWYA MENA Edition

More than half of sovereign investors in the Middle East saw drawdowns in 2020, with many stepping in to support local economies and plug fiscal deficits, according to global investment management firm Invesco.

In its ninth Global Sovereign Asset Management Study, the firm found that 57 percent of Middle East sovereigns saw drawdowns in 2020, including 78 percent of liquidity sovereigns and 58 percent of investment sovereigns, compared with a third globally.

Josette Rizk, Director Institutional Clients Middle East & Africa at Invesco, said: “The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a focus on liquidity for Middle East sovereign funds, both to fund short term demands and to take advantage of future opportunities.

“Given the commodity-based nature of regional sovereigns, it is not surprising that they were called on for support to fund necessary business relief as the result of the COVID-19 pandemic through drawdowns.”

Many sovereign funds had learned the importance of building large liquidity reserves, following the global financial crisis, and were successful in supporting local economies and large companies in need of stabilisation finance, Invesco said.

But the scale and speed of withdrawals for those that hadn’t, meant a significant impact on allocations, and led sovereigns to reevaluate liquidity risk management.

This has prompted a shift towards cash, with portfolio cash reserves more than doubling during 2020, as some sovereigns continued to focus on liquidity in anticipation of possible further withdrawals.

However, sovereigns also noted that the pandemic had shone a spotlight on the importance of liquidity.

The study also revealed a shift in asset allocation as sovereigns were forced to look elsewhere in the face of falling fixed income yields, as the widespread easing of monetary policy pushed rates lower.

Fixed income allocations fell from 34 percent to 30 percent globally as concerns about stimulus-driven inflation returned. The volatility present in markets through the first quarter of 2020 caused an uptick in equites, reversing a two-year trend of declining allocations.

Global sovereigns increased their allocations by 2 percent from 2020, rising to 28 percent. A further 30 percent of respondents, including 14 percent in the Middle East, expect to increase their allocation to equities over the next 12 months, Invesco said.

#UAE News: #AbuDhabi Hotel Occupancy Rises to Highest Since Pandemic Began - Bloomberg

UAE News: Abu Dhabi Hotel Occupancy Rises to Highest Since Pandemic Began - Bloomberg

Hotel occupancy in the oil-rich capital of the United Arab Emirates surged in June to the highest level since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

Abu Dhabi hotels were 68.5% full last month, according to preliminary data from research firm STR. Revenue per available room, a key measure of profitability, was 219.81 dirhams ($59.67), the highest since February.

Room rates have also risen in neighboring Dubai, STR said earlier this year. The emirate is hosting the Expo 2020 international exhibition in October, and is aiming for 25 million unique visits in what it hopes will be a significant boost to the key tourism sector.

The year-over-year percentage increases are “substantial” because of the comparison with the months most affected by the pandemic in 2020, STR said.

The UAE has largely shunned lockdowns since emerging from one last year. While Abu Dhabi has announced some curbs and plans to restrict public spaces to vaccinated people from August, Dubai remains largely open.

Still, restrictions on travel remain. The U.S. has raised its travel warning for the country to its highest level, Saudi Arabia has temporarily prohibited travel and the UAE has been on a “red list” for travel to the U.K. since January.

Arabian Centres looks to top up Islamic bonds deal | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Arabian Centres looks to top up Islamic bonds deal | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi mall operator Arabian Centres intends to issue U.S. dollar-denominated sukuk, it said on Tuesday, in a reopening of a transaction that raised $650 million in April.

Arabian Centres hired Goldman Sachs International and HSBC as joint global coordinators and bookrunners, the company said in a stock exchange filing.

The new sukuk issue "will form part of the same series" as the Islamic bonds sold in April. The potential issuance is subject to market conditions and authorities' approval, Arabian Centres said.

#Saudi Aramco drops Morgan Stanley on gas pipelines deal -sources | Reuters

Saudi Aramco drops Morgan Stanley on gas pipelines deal -sources | Reuters

Saudi Aramco has dropped Morgan Stanley (MS.N) as an adviser for the sale of its gas pipelines and picked JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) for the role, three sources familiar with matter said.

JPMorgan had also advised Aramco on the sale of the oil pipeline business, which was sold to a consortium led by Washington-DC based EIG Global Energy Partners for $12.4 billion. read more

Aramco has also invited banks to advise on the financing of the deal, sources told Reuters, the second major midstream deal after the sale of the oil pipelines. read more

The gas pipeline deal will also have an element of staple financing arranged by Aramco for the buyer, similar to the oil pipeline transaction that was backed by $10.5 billion in bank loans, they said.

JPMorgan was also among the lead arrangers for the loan that backed the oil pipeline deal, they said.

OPEC+ yet to make progress in resolving impasse, sources say | Reuters #SaudiArabia #UAE

OPEC+ yet to make progress in resolving impasse, sources say | Reuters

OPEC+ is yet to make progress closing divisions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that last week prevented a deal to raise oil output, making another policy meeting this week less likely, OPEC+ sources said.

Russia has been working behind the scenes to bring Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back to the table to find a path to agreement, sources told Reuters. But a Russian source said on Monday a meeting this week was not expected. read more

A dispute between the two Gulf OPEC allies was exposed last week, scuppering for now a deal that would have boosted output from August. Oil prices, already near their highest since 2018 due to a tightening market, rose further on the lack of a deal.

The spat forced the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, known as OPEC+, to abandon talks on boosting production after days of negotiations.

The White House said last week the United States was monitoring talks among OPEC and its partners.

The Kremlin said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden did not discuss OPEC+ or oil prices during a call on Friday.

In a joint statement on Monday, Saudi Arabia and Oman called for continued cooperation between OPEC and its allies. read more

OPEC+ agreed last year to record oil output cuts of almost 10 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 10% of world output, as the pandemic hit demand. The curbs have been gradually relaxed and currently stand at about 5.8 million bpd.

Oil climbs on expected further draw in U.S. crude inventories | Reuters

Oil climbs on expected further draw in U.S. crude inventories | Reuters

Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, reversing most of the previous day's losses, as tight supply and expectations of a further draw in U.S. crude inventories provided support, although fears over the spreading COVID-19 variant capped gains.

Brent crude for September rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $75.52 a barrel by 0655 GMT, after losing 0.5% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for August was at $74.45 a barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.5%, having fallen 0.6% the previous day.

"Optimism about tight supply and declining U.S. crude stockpiles lent support," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at commodities broker Fujitomi Co.

"Still, growing concerns over a spike in COVID-19 infection cases worldwide and uncertainty over production plans by OPEC+ will likely limit gains," he added.