Oil falls 2% on hopes for Venezuela supply | Reuters
Oil prices slumped 2% on Tuesday, after rising earlier in the session to seven-week highs, on news that the United States would ease some restrictions on Venezuela's government.
Prices deflated further following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that there could be some economic pain involved to bring inflation down. The U.S. central bank will "keep pushing" to tighten U.S. monetary policy until it is clear that inflation is declining, he said. read more
"Some of those comments tempered buying enthusiasm on the oil side," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Brent crude fell $2.31, or 2%, to settle at $111.93 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.8, or 1.6%, to settle at $112.40 a barrel.
Reuters reported that sources said U.S. President Joe Biden's administration will authorize as soon as Tuesday for U.S. oil company Chevron Corp (CVX.N) to negotiate with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, temporarily lifting a ban on such discussions. read more
Tuesday 17 May 2022
Adnoc: #UAE to More Than Double LNG Export Capacity With Fujairah Plant - Bloomberg
Adnoc: UAE to More Than Double LNG Export Capacity With Fujairah Plant - Bloomberg
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to build a new liquefied natural gas plant as the world’s producers race to expand their exports amid surging demand.
The LNG facility, to be built at Fujairah on the United Arab Emirates’ coast outside the Persian Gulf, will be able to produce as much as 9.6 million tons a year. The UAE currently has three liquefaction trains with a combined capacity of 5.8 mtpa at Das Island, which is located inside the Gulf.
Adnoc has appointed McDermott International Ltd as design contractor and intends to award a contract for the construction of the plant in 2023, said the oil company in a statement on its Linkedin page. The plant will use new technologies and “clean power” to reduce the carbon intensity of the LNG it produces, according to the statement.
Appetite for LNG among energy consumers has grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly in Europe, reinforcing a global market for the fuel that was already strengthened by rising demand in Asia last winter. While prices have eased slightly over the past month “higher prices and more volatility” are expected because of Europe’s switch to LNG, Biraj Borkhataria, associate director of European research at RBC Europe Limited, said in a note.
A pipeline will be constructed linking Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas production facilities to Fujairah and the liquefaction plant is scheduled to start in 2027, according to two people familiar with the matter. A spokesperson for the company declined to comment on the matter.
A government official previously said the UAE was considering building an LNG plant at Fujairah to facilitate the extra exports and state producer Adnoc last month agreed to buy two LNG carriers from a Chinese shipyard.
The UAE was the world’s 12th-largest LNG producer last year, making it a relatively small global player. However, a $20 billion push to develop more of its natural gas resources means it will be able to produce much more from about 2025 and the country aims to become self-sufficient by 2030.
The LNG import project at Fujairah represents a turnaround for the tiny emirate that had been earmarked for an LNG import terminal a decade ago. The plans were since scrapped and Dubai remains the only emirate to use LNG imports to meet its gas needs.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. plans to build a new liquefied natural gas plant as the world’s producers race to expand their exports amid surging demand.
The LNG facility, to be built at Fujairah on the United Arab Emirates’ coast outside the Persian Gulf, will be able to produce as much as 9.6 million tons a year. The UAE currently has three liquefaction trains with a combined capacity of 5.8 mtpa at Das Island, which is located inside the Gulf.
Adnoc has appointed McDermott International Ltd as design contractor and intends to award a contract for the construction of the plant in 2023, said the oil company in a statement on its Linkedin page. The plant will use new technologies and “clean power” to reduce the carbon intensity of the LNG it produces, according to the statement.
Appetite for LNG among energy consumers has grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly in Europe, reinforcing a global market for the fuel that was already strengthened by rising demand in Asia last winter. While prices have eased slightly over the past month “higher prices and more volatility” are expected because of Europe’s switch to LNG, Biraj Borkhataria, associate director of European research at RBC Europe Limited, said in a note.
A pipeline will be constructed linking Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas production facilities to Fujairah and the liquefaction plant is scheduled to start in 2027, according to two people familiar with the matter. A spokesperson for the company declined to comment on the matter.
A government official previously said the UAE was considering building an LNG plant at Fujairah to facilitate the extra exports and state producer Adnoc last month agreed to buy two LNG carriers from a Chinese shipyard.
The UAE was the world’s 12th-largest LNG producer last year, making it a relatively small global player. However, a $20 billion push to develop more of its natural gas resources means it will be able to produce much more from about 2025 and the country aims to become self-sufficient by 2030.
The LNG import project at Fujairah represents a turnaround for the tiny emirate that had been earmarked for an LNG import terminal a decade ago. The plans were since scrapped and Dubai remains the only emirate to use LNG imports to meet its gas needs.
#Dubai home sales surged 55.9% in April
Dubai home sales surged 55.9% in April
Dubai’s real estate continued to attract investors and end-users as home sales surged on rising demand in April despite a steady rise in prices, the latest data shows.
Home sales recorded year-on-year growth of 55.9 per cent last month as the demand for villas and apartments remained intact. However, home sales transactions registered a 17.4 per cent decline month-on-month basis.
“The month-on-month performance saw cash and mortgage sales of ready properties decline 13 per cent and off-plan Oqood (contract) registrations down 23.3 per cent,” according to the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI).
In another development, Property Finder’s proprietary demand data showed that the emirate recorded 6,983 real estate sales transactions worth Dh18.2 billion in April, the highest ever for the month since 2009.
Secondary market sales transactions, comprising 60 per cent of the total, constituted 4,212 transactions worth Dh12.86 billion, while off-plan properties, comprising the remaining 40 per cent, constituted 2,771 properties worth a total of Dh5.33 billion.
The real estate witnessed 45.48 per cent more transactions this April this year compared to the same month last year, resulting in a 66.62 per cent spike in value. This is broken down into a 46.2 per cent increase in the secondary volume and a 63.86 per cent increase in value, as well as a 44 per cent increase in off-plan sales transactions and a 73.68 per cent increase in value, according to Property Finder’s data.
Dubai’s real estate continued to attract investors and end-users as home sales surged on rising demand in April despite a steady rise in prices, the latest data shows.
Home sales recorded year-on-year growth of 55.9 per cent last month as the demand for villas and apartments remained intact. However, home sales transactions registered a 17.4 per cent decline month-on-month basis.
“The month-on-month performance saw cash and mortgage sales of ready properties decline 13 per cent and off-plan Oqood (contract) registrations down 23.3 per cent,” according to the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI).
In another development, Property Finder’s proprietary demand data showed that the emirate recorded 6,983 real estate sales transactions worth Dh18.2 billion in April, the highest ever for the month since 2009.
Secondary market sales transactions, comprising 60 per cent of the total, constituted 4,212 transactions worth Dh12.86 billion, while off-plan properties, comprising the remaining 40 per cent, constituted 2,771 properties worth a total of Dh5.33 billion.
The real estate witnessed 45.48 per cent more transactions this April this year compared to the same month last year, resulting in a 66.62 per cent spike in value. This is broken down into a 46.2 per cent increase in the secondary volume and a 63.86 per cent increase in value, as well as a 44 per cent increase in off-plan sales transactions and a 73.68 per cent increase in value, according to Property Finder’s data.
Oil jumps to 7-wk high, then dips on hopes for Venezuela supply | Reuters
Oil jumps to 7-wk high, then dips on hopes for Venezuela supply | Reuters
Oil prices jumped over $115 a barrel on Tuesday, their highest in about seven weeks, as the European Union kept pushing for a ban on Russian oil imports that would tighten supply.
Prices retreated and were slightly lower after Reuters reported that sources said U.S. President Joe Biden's administration will authorize as soon as Tuesday for U.S. oil company Chevron Corp (CVX.N) to negotiate with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, temporarily lifting a ban on such discussions. read more
"I don't think that's going to add a lot to the market anytime soon, but it shows desperation," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Energy markets have been scrambling for supplies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, as governments and companies sanction Moscow's energy industry.
Brent crude fell 13 cents to $114.11 a barrel by 12:54 p.m. EDT (1654 GMT), and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 6 cents to $114.14 a barrel.
Earlier, Brent rose to a session high of $115.69, its highest since March 28. WTI hit $115.56 per barrel, highest since March 24. Prices have gained by around 20% since Russia's invasion.
Oil prices jumped over $115 a barrel on Tuesday, their highest in about seven weeks, as the European Union kept pushing for a ban on Russian oil imports that would tighten supply.
Prices retreated and were slightly lower after Reuters reported that sources said U.S. President Joe Biden's administration will authorize as soon as Tuesday for U.S. oil company Chevron Corp (CVX.N) to negotiate with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, temporarily lifting a ban on such discussions. read more
"I don't think that's going to add a lot to the market anytime soon, but it shows desperation," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. Energy markets have been scrambling for supplies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, as governments and companies sanction Moscow's energy industry.
Brent crude fell 13 cents to $114.11 a barrel by 12:54 p.m. EDT (1654 GMT), and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 6 cents to $114.14 a barrel.
Earlier, Brent rose to a session high of $115.69, its highest since March 28. WTI hit $115.56 per barrel, highest since March 24. Prices have gained by around 20% since Russia's invasion.
#Saudi Aramco Weighs IPO of Trading Unit Amid Boom in Oil Prices - Bloomberg
Saudi Aramco Weighs IPO of Trading Unit Amid Boom in Oil Prices - Bloomberg
Saudi Aramco is considering an initial public offering of its trading arm amid a boom in oil prices in what could be one of the world’s biggest listings this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The state-controlled oil major is working with banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley as it studies a potential listing of Aramco Trading Co., the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.
The trading unit could fetch a valuation of tens of billions of dollars, the people said, with two of them saying it could be potentially worth more than $30 billion.
Aramco, which recently became the world’s most valuable company, could sell a 30% stake in the division, two of the people said, which would make it one of the world’s biggest IPOs this year. South Korea’s LG Energy Solution raised about $10.8 billion in January.
Saudi Aramco is considering an initial public offering of its trading arm amid a boom in oil prices in what could be one of the world’s biggest listings this year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The state-controlled oil major is working with banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley as it studies a potential listing of Aramco Trading Co., the people said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.
The trading unit could fetch a valuation of tens of billions of dollars, the people said, with two of them saying it could be potentially worth more than $30 billion.
Aramco, which recently became the world’s most valuable company, could sell a 30% stake in the division, two of the people said, which would make it one of the world’s biggest IPOs this year. South Korea’s LG Energy Solution raised about $10.8 billion in January.
#AbuDhabi leads most Gulf bourses higher; #Saudi falls | Reuters
Abu Dhabi leads most Gulf bourses higher; Saudi falls | Reuters
Abu Dhabi led most Gulf stock markets higher on Tuesday in line with global shares, while the Saudi index extended losses from the previous session.
European shares followed a positive start in Asia, with the STOXX index of Europe's 600 biggest stocks (.STOXX) up 1.7% on optimism about an easing of China's crackdowns on tech and COVID-19.
Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI) jumped about 3%, buoyed by a 3.9% rise in the country's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), and a 1.6% increase in telecoms firm e& (ETISALAT.AD).
Last week, e&, formerly known as Emirates Telecommunications Group, said it had bought a 9.8% stake in Vodafone (VOD.L) for $4.4 billion, days after saying it was looking to expand into new markets and related areas such as financial technology. read more
Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) finished 1.5% higher, with the emirate's biggest listed property group Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU) gaining 6.9%.
On Friday, Emaar reported a record first-quarter profit of 2.24 billion dirham ($610 million), as property sales surged 17%. read more
Analysts had expected a net profit of 1.06 billion dirhams, according to Refinitiv.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) extended losses to close 1.7% lower, with Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE) dropping 4%, while Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) retreated 3.1%.
The kingdom's crude oil exports in March fell to 7.235 million barrels per day, official data showed on Monday. read more
Elsewhere, the Qatari index (.QSI) rose 1.4%, ending three sessions of losses, boosted by a 5.4% leap in Commercial Bank (COMB.QA).
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) fell 0.2%, hit by a 1.5% drop in top lender Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA).
Egypt has lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth in the 2022/23 fiscal year, which begins in July, to 4.5% from 5.5%, a cabinet statement quoted the prime minister as saying on Monday.
Abu Dhabi led most Gulf stock markets higher on Tuesday in line with global shares, while the Saudi index extended losses from the previous session.
European shares followed a positive start in Asia, with the STOXX index of Europe's 600 biggest stocks (.STOXX) up 1.7% on optimism about an easing of China's crackdowns on tech and COVID-19.
Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI) jumped about 3%, buoyed by a 3.9% rise in the country's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), and a 1.6% increase in telecoms firm e& (ETISALAT.AD).
Last week, e&, formerly known as Emirates Telecommunications Group, said it had bought a 9.8% stake in Vodafone (VOD.L) for $4.4 billion, days after saying it was looking to expand into new markets and related areas such as financial technology. read more
Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) finished 1.5% higher, with the emirate's biggest listed property group Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU) gaining 6.9%.
On Friday, Emaar reported a record first-quarter profit of 2.24 billion dirham ($610 million), as property sales surged 17%. read more
Analysts had expected a net profit of 1.06 billion dirhams, according to Refinitiv.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) extended losses to close 1.7% lower, with Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE) dropping 4%, while Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) retreated 3.1%.
The kingdom's crude oil exports in March fell to 7.235 million barrels per day, official data showed on Monday. read more
Elsewhere, the Qatari index (.QSI) rose 1.4%, ending three sessions of losses, boosted by a 5.4% leap in Commercial Bank (COMB.QA).
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) fell 0.2%, hit by a 1.5% drop in top lender Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA).
Egypt has lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth in the 2022/23 fiscal year, which begins in July, to 4.5% from 5.5%, a cabinet statement quoted the prime minister as saying on Monday.
Clariant ending governance deal with SABIC stirs takeover talk | Reuters
Clariant ending governance deal with SABIC stirs takeover talk | Reuters
Clariant (CLN.S) and its main shareholder Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010.SE) are to end a so-called "governance agreement" defining their relationship, stirring speculation SABIC could launch a full takeover bid for the Swiss chemicals firm.
Clariant shares jumped 8.4% to become the top performer on Europe's main STOXX index (.STOXX) after the announcement on Tuesday, which fuelled rumours in Swiss media surrounding Clariant and SABIC ranging from a complete takeover by the Saudis to a sale of their Clariant stake.
The 2018 agreement guarantees SABIC's position as a strategic anchor shareholder and confirmed Clariant's independence as a publicly listed company under Swiss corporate governance.
But after the agreement lapses on June 22, Clariant and SABIC will no longer form a group regarding the attribution of voting rights, Clariant said.
Clairant Chairman Guenther von Au said he thought SABIC would continue to support Clariant in future. "We are confident on SABIC's support in the spirit built over the years," he said in a statement.
Clariant (CLN.S) and its main shareholder Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010.SE) are to end a so-called "governance agreement" defining their relationship, stirring speculation SABIC could launch a full takeover bid for the Swiss chemicals firm.
Clariant shares jumped 8.4% to become the top performer on Europe's main STOXX index (.STOXX) after the announcement on Tuesday, which fuelled rumours in Swiss media surrounding Clariant and SABIC ranging from a complete takeover by the Saudis to a sale of their Clariant stake.
The 2018 agreement guarantees SABIC's position as a strategic anchor shareholder and confirmed Clariant's independence as a publicly listed company under Swiss corporate governance.
But after the agreement lapses on June 22, Clariant and SABIC will no longer form a group regarding the attribution of voting rights, Clariant said.
Clairant Chairman Guenther von Au said he thought SABIC would continue to support Clariant in future. "We are confident on SABIC's support in the spirit built over the years," he said in a statement.
Food Maker Agthia to Seek Help From #UAE After India’s Wheat Ban - Bloomberg
Food Maker Agthia to Seek Help From UAE After India’s Wheat Ban - Bloomberg
Agthia Group PJSC intends to work alongside government officials from the United Arab Emirates to ensure wheat supplies despite India’s export ban.
The nation has been a primary source of Agthia’s wheat over the last 18 to 20 months, Chief Executive Officer Alan Smith said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.
The ban has exacerbated an already-tight market for the grain. Global prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a key wheat grower, and the Indian government has said it needed to halt shipments to protect food security.
However, the country will allow shipments for food security needs based on requests from governments. “We’ll see how we can work with the Indian government and the UAE government to make sure we continue to ensure availability in the business,” said Smith.
The Abu Dhabi-based company decided in March to sign longer-term supply agreements for foodstuff. It is covered for supplies until about August or September, Smith said.
Agthia Group PJSC intends to work alongside government officials from the United Arab Emirates to ensure wheat supplies despite India’s export ban.
The nation has been a primary source of Agthia’s wheat over the last 18 to 20 months, Chief Executive Officer Alan Smith said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.
The ban has exacerbated an already-tight market for the grain. Global prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a key wheat grower, and the Indian government has said it needed to halt shipments to protect food security.
However, the country will allow shipments for food security needs based on requests from governments. “We’ll see how we can work with the Indian government and the UAE government to make sure we continue to ensure availability in the business,” said Smith.
The Abu Dhabi-based company decided in March to sign longer-term supply agreements for foodstuff. It is covered for supplies until about August or September, Smith said.
Most Gulf bourses gain in line with Asian shares; #Saudi falls | Reuters
Most Gulf bourses gain in line with Asian shares; Saudi falls | Reuters
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose in early trade on Tuesday, in line with Asian shares, while the Saudi index extended losses as oil prices fell.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 1.5% on Tuesday, as hopes grow for an easing of China's unprecedented regulatory crackdown on its once-freewheeling tech sector.
Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI) advanced 3.1%, buoyed by a 4.1% jump in the counry's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), while telecoms company e& (ETISALAT.AD) rose 3.4%.
Last week, e&, formerly known as Emirates Telecommunications Group, said it had bought a 9.8% stake in Vodafone (VOD.L) for $4.4 billion, days after saying it was looking to expand into new markets and related areas such as financial technology. read more
Dubai's benchmark index (.DFMGI) gained 1.7%, with the emirate's biggest listed property firm Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU) up 6.4%.
On Friday, Emaar posted a record profit of 2.24 billion dirham ($610 million) in the first quarter, as property sales surged 17%. read more
Analysts had expected a net profit of 1.06 billion dirhams, according to Refinitiv.
The Qatari index (.QSI) climbed 1.5%, led by a 2.5% rise in Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA) and a 2.4% gain for telecoms firm Ooredoo (ORDS.QA).
Bucking the trend, Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) fell 0.8%, extending the previous session's losses as it was hit by a 2.4% fall in oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE).
The kingdom's crude oil exports in March fell to 7.235 million barrels per day from 7.307 million bpd in Feb, official data showed on Monday.
Oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, inched lower on Tuesday as Hungary resisted a European Union push for a ban on Russian oil imports, a move that would tighten global supply, with investors taking profits on a recent rally.
Most stock markets in the Gulf rose in early trade on Tuesday, in line with Asian shares, while the Saudi index extended losses as oil prices fell.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 1.5% on Tuesday, as hopes grow for an easing of China's unprecedented regulatory crackdown on its once-freewheeling tech sector.
Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI) advanced 3.1%, buoyed by a 4.1% jump in the counry's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), while telecoms company e& (ETISALAT.AD) rose 3.4%.
Last week, e&, formerly known as Emirates Telecommunications Group, said it had bought a 9.8% stake in Vodafone (VOD.L) for $4.4 billion, days after saying it was looking to expand into new markets and related areas such as financial technology. read more
Dubai's benchmark index (.DFMGI) gained 1.7%, with the emirate's biggest listed property firm Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU) up 6.4%.
On Friday, Emaar posted a record profit of 2.24 billion dirham ($610 million) in the first quarter, as property sales surged 17%. read more
Analysts had expected a net profit of 1.06 billion dirhams, according to Refinitiv.
The Qatari index (.QSI) climbed 1.5%, led by a 2.5% rise in Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA) and a 2.4% gain for telecoms firm Ooredoo (ORDS.QA).
Bucking the trend, Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) fell 0.8%, extending the previous session's losses as it was hit by a 2.4% fall in oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE).
The kingdom's crude oil exports in March fell to 7.235 million barrels per day from 7.307 million bpd in Feb, official data showed on Monday.
Oil prices, a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets, inched lower on Tuesday as Hungary resisted a European Union push for a ban on Russian oil imports, a move that would tighten global supply, with investors taking profits on a recent rally.
Oil prices inch lower as EU's Russian oil ban stalls | Reuters
Oil prices inch lower as EU's Russian oil ban stalls | Reuters
Oil prices inched lower on Tuesday as Hungary resisted a European Union push for a ban on Russian oil imports, a move that would tighten global supply, with investors taking profits on a recent rally.
Brent crude futures fell 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $114.13 a barrel by 0602 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid 22 cents, or 0.2%, to $113.98 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than 2% on Monday, following a 4% jump on Friday.
EU foreign ministers failed on Monday in their effort to pressure Budapest to lift its veto of a proposed oil embargo on Russia following the country's invasion of Ukraine. An embargo would require approval from all EU nations. read more
On the supply side, U.S. producers are ramping up in order to replenish inventories that have dwindled in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine - which Moscow calls "a special military operation" - and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil prices inched lower on Tuesday as Hungary resisted a European Union push for a ban on Russian oil imports, a move that would tighten global supply, with investors taking profits on a recent rally.
Brent crude futures fell 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $114.13 a barrel by 0602 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid 22 cents, or 0.2%, to $113.98 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained more than 2% on Monday, following a 4% jump on Friday.
EU foreign ministers failed on Monday in their effort to pressure Budapest to lift its veto of a proposed oil embargo on Russia following the country's invasion of Ukraine. An embargo would require approval from all EU nations. read more
On the supply side, U.S. producers are ramping up in order to replenish inventories that have dwindled in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine - which Moscow calls "a special military operation" - and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.