As world leaders descended on the United Arab Emirates this week to offer condolences on the death of ruler Sheikh Khalifa, diplomatic circles buzzed with speculation over whether his successor Sheikh Mohammed, known as MBZ, would break with tradition and pick his son, rather than one of his brothers, as crown prince.
The nomination of a crown prince or heir apparent is used to signal stability in Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich emirate that leads the Gulf monarchy, whose ruler wields power in consultation with his siblings and other powerful clans. The UAE plays an increasingly important role across the Middle East.
The UAE’s founder, Sheikh Zayed — the father of Sheikh Khalifa and Mohammed and other influential officials — had two decades ago indicated that succession should pass through his sons but many anticipate that the powerful Sheikh Mohammed, 61, will instead choose his eldest son, Sheikh Khaled.
“There are obviously concerns that MBZ wants to establish his own dynasty by selecting Khaled. It would be a massive departure from the traditional power dynamics in the UAE,” said Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “MBZ is already doing centralisation — this would be hyper-centralisation.”