Saudi economic growth likely to accelerate to 3.9% in 2010

Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery this year will most likely follow a gradual, steady track. Economic growth should accelerate following a stagnant and difficult year, inflation will remain at manageable but historically high levels and expansion of the private sector is set to take a turn for the better along with credit expansion at Saudi banks. The government, through a stimulatory public spending program, will continue to lead the pick up in the economy as Saudi oil averages around $74 a barrel and low levels of government debt bolster the Kingdom’s fiscal position. A higher oil price environment will enable Saudi Arabia to experience comfortable budget and current account surpluses.

While many key elements are in place to support a recovery in the Middle East’s largest economy, Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) reducing slightly its 2010 economic growth forecast for the Kingdom to 3.9 percent from 4 percent based on our view that improvements in business activity will be gradual and cautious. The government’s commitment to counter-cyclical fiscal expansion remains solid.

Banks are likely to loosen up on their reluctance toward lending to the public and private sectors, one barrier that choked the private sector during 2009. Last year, claims on both sectors by banks contracted by almost 5 percent, following growth of 30 percent during 2008. This year, banks will have little choice than to lend more as they emerge from a period of challenging revenues and an unfavorable low interest rate environment.