"The US Federal Reserve signalled the coming end of QE only a month ago, but forecasters are already producing long-term forecasts of the possible impact on emerging markets of the expected cut in easy money.
That’s brave, given the amount of noise in the market. On Wednesday, the Institute of International Finance, the banker’s club, pitched in with a report predicting a drop in net private capital flows to EMs over the next 18 months to the lowest level since 2009. That sounds bad, given that 2009 was a grim year. But the IIF’s numbers are a bit less gloomy than its top line.
The IIF says private capital flows into EMs are forecast to fall from $1,212bn in 2012 to $1,145bn this year with a further drop to $1,112bn in 2014. That will indeed be the lowest figure since 2009, but DM-to-EM capital flows then totalled only $649bn. Since then they have been rolling along in the $1,100bn-$1,200bn range."
'via Blog this'
No comments:
Post a Comment