December: season of EM currency drops (usually) | beyondbrics:
"As Christmas approaches in London, flutter-hungry bookies start taking bets on the likelihood of snowfall.
Are EM currency falls this month a safer bet?
Benoit Anne of Société Générale has crunched the numbers and found that EM currencies tend to lose value in December, to a greater extent than the yearly average.
Looking at average monthly exchange rate movements from 2000 to 2012, he finds that only six of 20 EM currencies generate a positive spot return in December – the Hungarian forint, the Czech koruna, the Romanian new leu, the Russian rouble, the Serbian dinar and the Mexican peso. These currencies were the only ones for which December outperformed the yearly average.
December is a bad month for holders of all other currencies that Anne looks at – in terms of negative, lower-than-average spot returns. It is the worst month for holders of the Chinese renminbi, the Indian rupee, the Philippine peso and the Chilean peso. It is not the cruellest month in toto. That epithet goes to July and (as fans of TS Eliot know) April."
'via Blog this'
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