Tuesday 1 October 2019

Oil Heads for Two-Month Low as Bleak Demand Signals Proliferate - Bloomberg

Oil Heads for Two-Month Low as Bleak Demand Signals Proliferate - Bloomberg:

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery fell 45 cents to settle at $53.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Aug. 8.

The U.S. benchmark has fallen 15% since reaching $62.90 on the first trading day after the Sept. 14 attacks that devastated Saudi oil output. In the meantime, the kingdom has surprised many observers with the swift pace of repairs and restoration.

Brent for December settlement fell 36 cents to close at $58.89 on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.39 premium to WTI for the same month.

U.S. shale oil boom ends as lower prices take toll: Kemp - Reuters

U.S. shale oil boom ends as lower prices take toll: Kemp - Reuters:

U.S. oil production growth is decelerating gradually in response to lower prices, which should reduce predicted over-supply in 2020 and force the global oil market back toward balance.

Domestic crude production fell 276,000 barrels per day to 11.806 million bpd in July, according to data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Monday.

The month-on-month reduction was entirely attributable to the Gulf of Mexico, where output fell 332,000 bpd, because many offshore platforms were shut due to the threat from tropical storm Barry.

Ecuador to Leave OPEC in January Amid Efforts to Boost Income - Bloomberg

Ecuador to Leave OPEC in January Amid Efforts to Boost Income - Bloomberg:

Ecuador, one of OPEC’s smallest members, will leave the group in January as it seeks to increase revenue from crude oil sales, the country’s resources ministry said. 

Ecuador has struggled to increase its production, which has held around 530,000 barrels a day for the past year. It’s limited from increasing output amid curbs placed on the country as part of the deal between OPEC and its allies to restrain output.

“The decision is rooted in the issues and internal challenges that the country needs to bear related to fiscal sustainability,” the ministry said in an emailed statement. The country will “continue to support all efforts that seek to stabilize the world oil market,” the ministry said.

Buzz Around World Cup Fizzles to Put a Squeeze on Qatari Economy - Bloomberg

Buzz Around World Cup Fizzles to Put a Squeeze on Qatari Economy - Bloomberg:

Qatar’s economy looks far from top form as it wraps up a flurry of building projects for the 2022 soccer World Cup.

Now that rents are falling and much of stadium construction draws to a close, the toll is starting to wear on the $192 billion economy. Output excluding oil and gas extraction shrank for the first time since records began in 2012, dropping an annual 1.1% in the second quarter, according to Qatar’s Planning and Statistics Authority.

Construction, manufacturing, as well as wholesale and retail, are all in contraction, figures released Tuesday showed. Overall, the economy of the world’s largest exporter of liquefied-natural gas shrank 1.4% from a year earlier.

Norway Taps Its $1 Trillion Wealth Fund in Surprise Move - Bloomberg

Norway Taps Its $1 Trillion Wealth Fund in Surprise Move - Bloomberg:

Norway unexpectedly took almost $400 million from its sovereign wealth fund in August, marking the first withdrawal in over a year as western Europe’s biggest petroleum producer takes advantage of its enormous piggy bank amid a decline in oil prices. 


Tapping the world’s biggest wealth fund remains an extremely rare occurrence in Norway. The government made its first ever withdrawal in 2016, following a collapse in crude prices. The huge fiscal buffer that the fund represents has helped Norway’s central bank avoid some of the extremes of monetary stimulus to which its peers have had to resort.

The withdrawal, which comes after oil prices dropped to a seven-month low in early August, was made to keep a balance between oil revenue and oil money spending this year, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday in a response to questions from Bloomberg.

OPEC Output Suffers Biggest Drop in 16 Years on #Saudi Attacks - Bloomberg

OPEC Output Suffers Biggest Drop in 16 Years on Saudi Attacks - Bloomberg:

OPEC’s oil production tumbled the most in 16 years last month after an attack on Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities temporarily halved output in the world’s biggest crude exporter.

Supplies from the cartel’s 14 members plunged by 1.59 million barrels a day to 28.32 million a day, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials, ship-tracking data and estimates from consultants including Rystad Energy AS, JBC Energy GmbH and Energy Aspects Ltd. It’s the biggest monthly drop since labor strikes briefly paralyzed Venezuela’s oil industry in 2002.

StanChart's #UAE unit cuts more than 100 retail jobs: sources - Reuters

StanChart's UAE unit cuts more than 100 retail jobs: sources - Reuters:

A unit of Standard Chartered (STAN.L) cut more than 100 jobs in its retail business in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last month, sources familiar with the matter said. 


Banks in the Gulf country are increasing digital banking operations and outsourcing back-office work to low-cost locations such as India.

Standard Chartered did not confirm the job cuts, but said in an email: “We are continuously reviewing our businesses and accelerating our shift toward digital and consumer preference.”

#Iran building oil pipeline to terminal outside Gulf - Reuters

Iran building oil pipeline to terminal outside Gulf - Reuters:

Iran is building a $1.8 billion oil pipeline to its port of Jask outside the mouth of the Gulf, the country’s oil minister said, as part of plans to protect its exports against potential problems in the region and to boost shipments of Caspian oil.

Iran has been planning since at least 2012 to set up the terminal on the Gulf of Oman, just outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has threatened to block the vital Gulf oil shipping route during its standoff with the United States, after Washington last year withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and reimposed sanctions, including on Tehran’s vital oil exports.

Down is the only way: Emerging central banks deliver more rate cuts - Reuters

Down is the only way: Emerging central banks deliver more rate cuts - Reuters:

SAUDI ARABIA/ UNITED ARAB EMIRATES / QATAR - The central banks of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar cut their key interest rates on Sept. 18 and 19, following the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to slash rates for the second time this year.

Australia's explorers step up hunt for oil after big find - Reuters

Australia's explorers step up hunt for oil after big find - Reuters:

Australia’s oil exploration has picked up over the past year following the country’s biggest find in more than two decades, and could drive a resurgence in production that has fallen to a near 50-year low.

A successful hunt for liquids could eventually beef up fuel security in Australia, which relies on imports for most of its oil needs, and whose vulnerability was highlighted after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities last month.

With just 58 days worth of annual oil imports as at June 2019, Australia is the only member of the International Energy Agency that has not stockpiled 90 days of oil.

Oil prices sink as weak U.S. economic data dims demand outlook - Reuters

Oil prices sink as weak U.S. economic data dims demand outlook - Reuters:

Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, pressured as weak U.S. economic data dimmed crude’s demand outlook, while reports of an output decline from the world’s largest oil producers in the third quarter kept prices from falling further.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 lost 49 cents, or 0.8%, to $58.76 a barrel by 12:31 p.m. EDT (1631 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 shed 67 cents, or 1.2%, to $53.40.

The daily slides followed a session in which both benchmarks posted their largest quarterly declines of the year.

MIDEAST STOCKS-Financials lead Egypt higher as banks weigh on #Saudi - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Financials lead Egypt higher as banks weigh on Saudi - Reuters:

A rebound in financial shares boosted
Egypt's blue-chip stock index on Tuesday, a day after it took a
breather to snap three straight days of gains, while Saudi
Arabia reversed early gains as most of its banks declined.

Egypt's blue-chip index gained 1.7% with its
largest bank, Commercial International Bank, leaping
3.1% and El Sewedy Electric increasing 2.3%.

Egypt's M2 money supply growth accelerated to 11.78%
year-on-year in August, Reuters reported on Tuesday citing data
from the central bank.

The money supply stood at 3.93 trillion Egyptian pounds
($242.29 billion) as of the end of August from 3.88 trillion
pounds at the end of July.

Khashoggi to Aramco attacks: #Saudi 'Vision 2030' clouded by risks | News | Al Jazeera

Khashoggi to Aramco attacks: Saudi 'Vision 2030' clouded by risks | News | Al Jazeera:

Investors can tolerate a lot when there are deals to be done and money to be made. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the government's human rights violations at home and abroad failed to deter the titans of global capitalism from feting Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) as he peddled his grandiose Vision 2030 blueprint for diversifying the kingdom's economy away from oil. 

Until Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered.

Khashoggi's murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul a year ago this week proved just how powerful a deterrent reputational risk has become in the age of "woke". As details of Khashoggi's murder were drip-fed via the Turkish media to a shocked global audience, business A-listers bailed in droves from the Saudi Public Investment Fund's (PIF) annual "Davos in the Desert" summit. Top executives who boycotted sent lower-ranking ones in their stead.

The importance of economic diversification in the Middle East | Financial Times

The importance of economic diversification in the Middle East | Financial Times:

The recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities have highlighted the role of the world’s largest oil exporter and of the overall Middle East as cornerstones of global energy.

They also underlined the persistent risk of volatility in oil prices and the importance of economic diversification in the region’s petrostates, which governments have been addressing but, so far, with limited success.

Historically, Middle Eastern petrostates have turned to diversification during periods of low oil prices, typically proposing various initiatives to increase the private sector’s role in the economy, encourage small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), to create jobs and invest in education and innovation. Such plans have been abandoned when oil prices recover.

Aramco Fully Restores Oil Output as It Recovers From Attacks - Bloomberg

Aramco Fully Restores Oil Output as It Recovers From Attacks - Bloomberg:

Saudi Aramco is producing more than 9.9 million barrels a day of crude as it fully recovers from the worst-ever attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Output reached that level on Sept. 25 and is a “little bit” higher now, Ibrahim Al-Buainain, chief executive officer of state-owned Aramco’s energy trading unit, said at Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia has also restored some spare capacity following the Sept. 14 attacks, he said.

The aerial attacks highlighted the fragility of global supply chains and the vulnerability of an industry that is Saudi Arabia’s lifeblood. They also underscored the risk to reliable energy flows from the Persian Gulf after a series of tanker bombings in May and June.

Lebanese Peg That’s Held Up for Over Two Decades Is Under Siege - Bloomberg

Lebanese Peg That’s Held Up for Over Two Decades Is Under Siege - Bloomberg:

Lebanon’s slow-churning currency crunch is fast engulfing Bashar Boubess’s business.

The miller pays for wheat imports in dollars but bakeries buy his flour in Lebanese pounds. For weeks now, the bank has refused to exchange those pound earnings back into the hard currency he needs to replenish supplies. His wheat stocks have dropped 30%.

Boubess has turned to money changers to keep his business alive, but it’s expensive: they demand more pounds for every dollar than the increasingly unrealistic official rate.

UPDATE 2- #Saudi economic growth slows sharply in Q2, raising recession risk - Reuters

UPDATE 2-Saudi economic growth slows sharply in Q2, raising recession risk - Reuters:

Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply in the second quarter amid oil output cuts by the world’s largest crude exporter, government data showed on Monday, raising fears of an economic contraction this year.

The economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, down from annual growth of 1.66% in the first quarter of 2019.

It last contracted in 2017 before recovering to 2.2% growth last year, helped by strong oil output.

#Saudi's Almarai secures $100mln loan; to expand Jordan, Egypt subsidiaries | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Saudi's Almarai secures $100mln loan; to expand Jordan, Egypt subsidiaries | ZAWYA MENA Edition:

Saudi Arabia’s Almarai, the largest dairy company in the Gulf states, has received a loan of up to $100 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

The proceeds from the loan will be contributed to Beyti and Teeba, the company's dairy and juice subsidiaries in Egypt and Jordan respectively, a statement by EBRD said.

Beyti will benefit from up to $90 million to fund its dairy and juice production capacity expansion and growing capital needs. Teeba will receive up to $10 million to strengthen its capital base and fund its permanent working capital needs.

#Qatar GDP falls 1.4% year-on-year in second quarter - Reuters

Qatar GDP falls 1.4% year-on-year in second quarter - Reuters:

Qatar’s economy contracted by 1.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to government statistics, hurt by a drop in the manufacturing and construction sectors. 


Gross domestic product (GDP) also contracted by 0.9% in the second quarter compared to the first, based on constant prices, the data showed.

The manufacturing sector declined 7.4%, while construction fell 3.5%, data from the Qatar’s Planning and Statistics Authority showed.

#UAE's ADNOC selects ICE for its Murban crude oil futures - sources - Reuters

UAE's ADNOC selects ICE for its Murban crude oil futures - sources - Reuters:

State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) has chosen the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to launch a regional oil benchmark based on its Murban crude grade by next year, three sources familiar with the matter said.

The move is part of a broader transformation strategy by ADNOC as it seeks to emulate the success of rival oil majors and bolster its regional influence.

Two sources said ADNOC may launch a new Murban futures contract as early as February 2020.

RPT-COLUMN-Hedge funds resume selling oil as focus turns back to economy: John Kemp - Reuters

RPT-COLUMN-Hedge funds resume selling oil as focus turns back to economy: John Kemp - Reuters:

Hedge funds resumed selling petroleum as Saudi Arabia ramped up output following attacks on its oil installations and the focus shifted back to the poor health of the global economy and oil consumption.

Hedge funds and other money managers sold 16 million barrels of futures and options in the six major petroleum contracts in the week to Sept. 24, after buying a total of 144 million in the previous two weeks.

Funds sold Brent (-15 million barrels) and ICE and NYMEX WTI (-8 million) though they were small buyers of U.S. gasoline (+4 million), U.S. diesel (+1 million) and European gasoil (+3 million).

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Saudi, #Qatar gain on financials and petchems; other mkts quiet - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi, Qatar gain on financials and petchems; other mkts quiet - Agricultural Commodities - Reuters:

Qatar’s stock market rose and Saudi stocks gained on Tuesday as recovering oil prices buoyed their banks and petrochemical stocks, while other markets were quiet.

Oil prices rebounded on reports that production at the world’s largest oil producers fell during the third quarter, although a resumption in Saudi supply and demand concerns continued to keep a lid on prices.

December Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 25 cents, or 0.42% to $59.50 a barrel by 0657 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 for November was up 25 cents, or 0.46%, at $54.32 a barrel.

#Saudi Aramco plans $75bn dividend in IPO push | Financial Times

Saudi Aramco plans $75bn dividend in IPO push | Financial Times:

Saudi Arabia has boosted efforts to woo investors to the long-awaited stock market listing of Saudi Aramco by announcing an annual dividend of $75bn while scaling back global expansion plans at the oil company to increase cash flow.

Riyadh is also planning to change state royalty payments and cut corporation tax as the kingdom pushes to secure a $2tn valuation for the state energy group, five people briefed on the matter said.

Although $1tn-$1.5tn is deemed a more realistic price for the world’s most profitable company, advisers have been aiming for a higher figure to placate Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.