Tuesday 12 November 2024

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets ease on weak oil, caution ahead of US data

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets ease on weak oil, caution ahead of US data


Most stock markets in the Gulf ended lower on Tuesday amid weak oil prices, with investors cautious ahead of U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials this week.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index dropped 0.5%, hit by a 1.4% fall in aluminium products manufacturer Al Taiseer Group and a 1.1% decrease in Al Rajhi Bank. Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - steadied, recovering from a 5% drop over the previous two sessions, as investors absorbed OPEC's latest downward revision for oil demand and the market's disappointment over China's latest stimulus plan. The Saudi energy index was down 0.1%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index eased 0.2%. Investors are also bracing for further signals from U.S. inflation data and Fed speakers this week. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of the Fed cutting rates in December by 25 basis points. Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is usually guided by the Fed's decisions, as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

The Qatari index retreated 1.4%, weighed down by a 2.3% decline in the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank and a 3.3% decrease in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar.

Dubai's main share index, however, advanced 1.1%, led by a 3.7% rise in toll operator Salik Co and a 10.3% surge in Emaar Development after the developer reported higher nine-month net profit.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index fell 0.1%, with Commercial International Bank dropping 0.5%.

Monday 11 November 2024

Gulf bourses end mixed on weak oil, ahead of US data | Reuters

Gulf bourses end mixed on weak oil, ahead of US data | Reuters


Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Monday amid weak oil prices and ahead of U.S. economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials this week.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab fell 0.2%, hit by a 1.1% fall in Qatar Gas Transport Nakilat (QGTS.QA), opens new tab and a 0.4% decreased in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar (IQCD.QA), opens new tab.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - fell, after China's stimulus plan disappointed investors hoping to see growth in demand for fuel from the world's No. 2 oil consumer, and as the U.S. dollar edged higher.

Looking ahead, there were also concerns that U.S. oil and gas output could rise under the new Trump administration, although analysts say 2025's production forecast is unlikely to change.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab recovered early losses to finish flat. The Abu Dhabi index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab eased 0.1%.

Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, when U.S. consumer and producer price index data, weekly jobless claims and retail sales figures are also due.

Traders see a 65% chance of another 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December and a 35% chance of no change, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is usually guided by decisions of the Fed, as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab added 0.3%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab advancing 1.3% ahead of its earnings announcement.

Separately, Talabat, the Middle East business of Delivery Hero (DHER.DE), opens new tab, will list on the Dubai Stock Exchange in mid-December, floating 15% of its issued shares, its German parent said on Sunday.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 0.7%, with Telecom Egypt (ETEL.CA), opens new tab jumping 6.7%, after the firm signed several service agreements with Vodafone Egypt for infrastructure services.

Sunday 10 November 2024

Delivery Hero to Pursue IPO of 15% of Talabat Unit in #Dubai - Bloomberg

Delivery Hero to Pursue IPO of 15% of Talabat Unit in Dubai - Bloomberg

Delivery Hero SE unveiled plans to list its Talabat unit in Dubai in what could be among the region’s biggest initial public offerings of the year.

The German food delivery firm plans to sell a 15% stake in its Middle Eastern subsidiary, according to a statement on Sunday, retaining a majority interest. It could amend the size of the offering subject to required approvals of the Securities and Commodities Authority of the United Arab Emirates, it added.

The share sale could raise about $1 billion, Bloomberg News reported in September.

The listing is expected to take place in mid-December, the Berlin-based company said, with proceeds set to be used for general corporate purposes and to optimize its capital structure.

Talabat currently plans to pay a minimum dividend of about $100 million in April relative to fourth quarter financial results, plus another $400 million in two installments in October 2025 and April 2026, according to the statement. Thereafter, dividends are expected to be paid twice each calendar year, with Talabat targeting a net income payout of 90%.

The IPO comes amid a flurry of new share sales in the Middle East. Oman’s state-owned energy company raised a record $2 billion by listing its exploration and production unit last month, and is preparing to sell shares in its methanol business.

Private sector companies are also rushing in. Lulu Retail Holdings Plc raised $1.72 billion in the United Arab Emirates’ biggest listing of the year. IT services firm Alpha Data is eyeing an Abu Dhabi listing, while online cosmetics retailer Nice One, health care provider Almoosa Health, and tech firm Ejada are lining up IPOs in Saudi Arabia.

Talabat reported $6 billion in gross merchandise volumes in 2023, up from just under $4 billion in 2021. Its free cash flow increased by 64% year-on-year to $226 million in the six months ended June.

The Dubai IPO could value Delivery Hero’s “crown jewel” at as much as $12 billion including debt, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence report.

However, the entry of aggressive competitors could dent Talabat’s market share and valuation, analyst Tatiana Lisitsina wrote. She cited the example of Saudi Arabian firm Jahez, whose profit outlook was hit by the entry of Chinese food delivery giant Meituan. While Talabat doesn’t operate in the kingdom, lucrative Gulf markets could attract competitors, Lisitsina noted.

Delivery Hero has been cementing its position in the Middle East through acquisitions. It bought the Indian firm Zomato’s food delivery business in the UAE in 2019, and the online grocery platform InstaShop in 2020. The Talabat brand also has a presence in Bahrain, Egypt, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan.

#Saudi, #UAE: Goldman (GS), Wall Street Firms Split Time Between Riyadh, #AbDhabi - Bloomberg

Saudi, UAE: Goldman (GS), Wall Street Firms Split Time Between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi - Bloomberg

BlackRock Inc.’s Larry Fink was among headliners at Saudi Arabia’s annual Davos-style investment confab in October. Days later, he popped up on a social media post from Abu Dhabi’s $1.5 trillion man, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The $11.5 trillion asset manager Fink runs recently received approval to set up its regional headquarters in Riyadh. It’s also teaming up with the Abu Dhabi royal on one of the largest efforts to date to bankroll the build-out of data warehouses and energy infrastructure.

The biggest firms on Wall Street operate across geographies and top executives often fly to multiple countries while visiting a region. But Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which are competing to be the Middle East’s main business hub, offer unique opportunities: The cities control over $1 trillion in sovereign wealth each, making them among the biggest pools of capital in the world.

Sheikh Tahnoon — one of Abu Dhabi’s two deputy rulers, the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser and brother to its president — had conversations with many executives who also spoke at the FII, according to posts on the royal’s X profile.

That list included Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer Ted Pick, Blackstone Inc.’s Steve Schwarzman and Ruth Porat of Alphabet Inc., which is partnering with Saudi Arabia on an artificial intelligence hub. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon also dropped by in Abu Dhabi shortly after his firm announced its new Riyadh office, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The two cities have rolled out a series of initiatives in their quest for greater global relevance. Riyadh is asking international firms to boost their local presence, or risk losing business. That’s prompted the likes of General Atlantic and Goldman to beef up their operations in the kingdom.

Some others have been reluctant about making Riyadh their main hub because their employees prefer the lifestyle in the UAE. To further sweeten the deal, Abu Dhabi has also rolled out a series of perks, including a lifestyle-support program for incoming financiers.

But many firms looking to raise cash or plug into dealmaking driven by ambitious diversification programs are trying to keep a foot in both camps.

BlackRock, for instance, said its new Riyadh base will help the firm expand operations across the Middle East and not just in the kingdom. Goldman continues to have a significant presence in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and Barclays Plc, which is considering re-entering Saudi Arabia after a decade, said it intends to grow its team in the UAE as well.

Meanwhile, investment bank Lazard Inc., which held sale talks with Abu Dhabi fund ADQ last year, is making a big push in Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg News has reported.

While both cities have embarked on similar drives to lure the world’s biggest firms, the past couple of years have also brought into sharp relief shifting priorities for officials in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and the kinds of partnerships they’re seeking.

For instance, Saudi Arabia, with its large and relatively young population, is prioritizing projects aimed at developing its infrastructure, which significantly lags the UAE.

But with finances constrained as a result of weak oil prices, it needs to bring in more foreign capital - hence the desire to get the world’s biggest infrastructure fund managers into the country. Case in point: Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.’s new $2 billion Middle East vehicle.

“People used to come to us and ask for money,” Yasir Al Rumayyan, the governor of the kingdom’s nearly $1 trillion Public Investment Fund, said on a panel at the FII last month. “We are now seeing a shift from people wanting to take our money to people wanting to co-invest.”

Saudi Arabia is also becoming a regional opportunity for investment banks. The kingdom is in the midst of a vast privatization program to raise cash to fund investment plans, and that’s transformed Riyadh into a hotspot for initial public offerings.

For Abu Dhabi, with energy riches outweighing the ability of the local economy to digest and which already boasts some of the best infrastructure in the region, the focus is using those assets to prepare for the post-oil economy.

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the emirate’s $1 trillion wealth fund continues to invest predominantly outside the country. At the same time, the city has drawn some of the world’s biggest hedge funds.

That’s prompted officials to start expanding the financial hub’s jurisdiction to a neighboring island, in a move that will give it 10 times as much space. Months after billionaire Alan Howard said Abu Dhabi could become a global financial center, Bloomberg News reported the hedge fund he set up manages more money from the emirate than anywhere else.

But here too, there’s a balancing act.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio, the face of Abu Dhabi’s push to draw hedge fund luminaries, was in Riyadh for FII. He was spotted in traditional Arab garb ahead of the event and later, on a panel, explained the reasons behind his ties to the region.

The billionaire was effusive in his praise of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “I think his Royal Highness is a great leader,” he said. “He’s almost like a Deng Xiaoping of China, in a sense, or a Lee Kuan Yew (of Singapore).”

#Saudi bourse falls on oil; #Qatar gains | Reuters

Saudi bourse falls on oil; Qatar gains | Reuters


Saudi Arabia's stock market ended slightly lower on Sunday after a fall in oil prices at the end of last week, while banking shares helped lift Qatar's benchmark index.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab fell 0.2% in a choppy trade, hit by a 4.6% fall in ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab and a 3.3% decline in Saudi Arabian Mining Co (1211.SE), opens new tab.

Oil prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - settled more than 2% lower on Friday as traders grew less fearful of prolonged supply disruptions from a hurricane in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, while China's latest economic stimulus packages failed to impress some oil traders.

Deflationary pressures in the Chinese economy have been a heavy drag on oil prices this year, with customs data showing a sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in the country's crude oil imports for October.

Separately, the general chief of staff of Saudi Arabia's armed forces, Fayyad al-Ruwaili, will visit Tehran on Sunday to meet with his Iranian counterpart and discuss defence ties, Iran's state media reported the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff as saying.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab - which resumed trading following a two day break - gained 0.5%, with Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab advancing 1.1% and the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab was up 0.4%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab added 0.4%, with top lender Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab rising 1.4%.

Friday 8 November 2024

Delivery Hero's Talabat to launch over $1 bln #Dubai IPO next week, sources say | Reuters

Delivery Hero's Talabat to launch over $1 bln Dubai IPO next week, sources say | Reuters

Talabat, the Middle East business of Delivery Hero (DHER.DE), opens new tab, plans to launch its Dubai initial public offering next week, three people familiar with the plans told Reuters, in one of the UAE's biggest IPOs this year.

The deal, set by the German parent for the fourth quarter, could start as soon as Monday, two of the sources said. It could see the largest food ordering business in the Middle East sell stock worth more than $1 billion, according to two of them.

Dubai-based Talabat and Delivery Hero declined to comment.

The IPO rides a retail spending boom in the Gulf and comes amid a frenzy of public listings in the region as governments push to cut their dependence on oil.

Hypermarket chain operator Lulu Retail raised $1.72 billion on Wednesday.

Founded in 2004 in Kuwait, Talabat has since expanded to serve customers in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt, with over six million active customers as of the end of July, according to company data.

Besides food, it provides deliveries of groceries and other goods including health and beauty products.

Germany's Delivery Hero bought a majority stake in Talabat in 2015. The Berlin-based online takeaway food company said in August it planned to retain a majority stake, with analysts flagging the deal could help cut its debt.

Its Frankfurt-listed shares have fallen over 74% from their January 2021 highs fuelled by pandemic demand.

The IPO "represents a highly positive catalyst for the equity (of Delivery Hero)," said Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne in a video note earlier this week, citing "very low execution risk" and a material de-leverage of the balance sheet.

Talabat is "one of the highest, if not the highest quality on demand delivery platforms globally," he said, valuing the company at 11.5-13.5 billion euros.

Regional rivals include Saudi Arabia's Jahez (9526.SE), opens new tab as well as Uber Technologies-owned (UBER.N), opens new tab Careem.

Delivery Hero chief executive Niklas Östberg did not comment when asked about the IPO in an interview with Reuters on Thursday, when the company reported third-quarter earnings.

Its gross merchandise value (GMV), measuring the total value of all goods sold, rose 30% in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, its fastest growing geography, where it also operates through units Hungerstation, Yemeksepeti and InstaShop.

It accounted for over a quarter of the group's overall GMV in the period.

Lower oil prices drag #UAE markets down | Reuters

Lower oil prices drag UAE markets down | Reuters


Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates closed lower on Friday, driven by a drop in oil prices on subsiding risks of the significant impact of hurricane Rafael on U.S. oil and gas output.

Hurricane Rafael, which has caused 391,214 barrels per day of U.S. crude oil production to be shut, is expected to move slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico and away from U.S. fields while forecast to weaken from Friday and through the weekend, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Oil prices — an engine of growth for Gulf's economies — was down 1.61% at $74.41 a barrel as of 1100 GMT.

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab slipped 0.2%, after three session of gains, dragged down by a 0.6% decrease in International Holding Company (IHC.AD), opens new tab and a 1.4% decline in IHC-owned conglomerate Alpha Dhabi Holding (ALPHADHABI.AD), opens new tab.

Other losers included Sharjah-based energy firm Dana Gas (DANA.AD), opens new tab. It fell 1.3% after the firm recorded a 7% decline in its third-quarter net profit to $40 million.

However, State oil giant Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's gas unit, ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS.AD), opens new tab, jumped 1.5% ahead of releasing third-quarter earnings later in the day.

Dubai's main index (.DFMGI), opens new tab snapped three sessions of gains, with the index settling 0.1% down.

Among the losers, Dubai lenders Mashreqbank (MASB.DU), opens new tab and Commercial Bank of Dubai (CBD.DU), opens new tab dropped 2% and 4%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the UAE central bank cut its base rate applied to the overnight deposit facility by 25 basis points on Thursday, from 4.90% to 4.65%, effective Nov. 8.

The Abu Dhabi index recorded 1.1% weekly growth, while the Dubai index extended gains to fifth week, with a 0.4% rise, according to LSEG data.

Thursday 7 November 2024

Most Gulf markets in black as investors weigh Trump win | Reuters

Most Gulf markets in black as investors weigh Trump win | Reuters


Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Thursday in line with global shares as investors navigated the implications of a second Donald Trump presidency.

Trump recaptured the White House with a sweeping victory on Wednesday as tens of millions of Americans looked past his criminal charges and divisive rhetoric to embrace a leader who, if he carries out his campaign promises, will test the limits of presidential power.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab gained 0.3%, with aluminium products manufacturer Al Taiseer Group (4143.SE), opens new tab rising 1.2% and Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab increasing 2%.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE), opens new tab declined 4.1%, after the miner swung to quarterly profit but saw a sequential decrease in earnings.

Trump's proposed import tariffs might strengthen the U.S. dollar through reduced spending on foreign goods, benefiting Gulf Cooperation Countries' (GCC) currencies, said Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer, Century Financial.

A stronger dollar from Trump's protectionist policies would also increase foreign investment in the GCC region, added Valecha.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab gained 0.6%, led by a 4% jump in Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corp (Empower) (EMPOWER.DU), opens new tab, which saw an increase in revenue despite reporting a fall in quarterly profit.

However, Dubai Taxi Company (DTC.DU), opens new tab, the largest taxi operator in the Gulf city state by market share, declined 4.1% following a slide in quarterly profit.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab reversed early losses to close 0.4% higher, helped by a 0.6% increase in conglomerate International Holding Co (IHC) (IHC.AD), opens new tab.

IHC - Abu Dhabi's most valuable company - reported a third-quarter net profit of 5.69 billion dirhams ($1.55 billion), up from 4.83 billion dirhams a year ago.

In addition, according to Valecha, Trump is more likely to resolve regional conflict faster as compared to his counterpart, which is expected to promote further stability in the region.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab added 0.7%.

** The Qatari bourse was closed for a public holiday.

Wednesday 6 November 2024

Grocer Lulu Raises $1.72 Billion in #UAE’s Largest IPO This Year - Bloomberg

Grocer Lulu Raises $1.72 Billion in UAE’s Largest IPO This Year - Bloomberg

Hypermarket chain operator Lulu Retail Holdings Plc’s $1.72 billion Abu Dhabi initial public offering drew orders worth $37 billion, including from global investors Vanguard Group Inc. and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte.

Lulu International Holdings sold 3.10 billion shares, or a 30% stake, at 2.04 dirhams ($0.56) apiece, the top of a marketed range. Based on that offer price, the firm will have a market capitalization of 21.1 billion dirhams when it lists on Nov. 14.

Apart from Vanguard and GIC, sovereign entities from Gulf Cooperation Council countries — including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Hassana, Qatar Investment Authority and Kuwait Investment Authority — invested in the offer, founder Yusuff Ali said at a press conference in Abu Dhabi Wednesday.

Lulu previously said it had secured commitments from Saudi Arabia’s Masarrah Investment Co., Abu Dhabi Pension Fund, Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding, Emirates International Investment Co., and Oman Investment Authority. Those funds bought shares worth just over 1 billion dirhams.

The retailer initially planned to sell a 25% stake and raise up to $1.43 billion, but increased the size of the IPO, citing strong investor interest. The deal had demand for all shares an hour after books opened last week, eclipsing oil services firm NMDC Energy’s $877 million offering as United Arab Emirates’ biggest IPO of the year.

The IPO marks the latest in a series of private sector listings across the Middle East, offering investors a broader choice beyond state-owned assets. Delivery Hero SE’s Middle Eastern unit Talabat and IT services firm Alpha Data are also planning listings in the UAE this year.

High-end supermarket chain Spinneys 1961 Holding Plc raised $374 million from a Dubai listing in May, though the stock had a relatively muted debut and continues to trade around the offer price.

Lulu plans to open about 90 stores across the Gulf over the next five years, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE slated as its main expansion markets.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Citigroup Inc., Emirates NBD Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc are the joint global coordinators on the offering. Moelis & Co. is an advisor on the deal.

Most Gulf markets gain on Trump's presidential win | Reuters

Most Gulf markets gain on Trump's presidential win | Reuters


Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Wednesday as a win by Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election fuelled expectations of more business-friendly policies, analysts said.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab gained 0.7%, Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab added 0.5% and in Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab added 0.4%.

"Analysts noted that these market moves align with investor expectations of a Trump administration’s economic approach, prioritising reduced regulatory pressures and trade policy changes," Mohamed Hashad, chief market strategist, at Noor Capital said.

Saudi's Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab rose 2.3% and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (1211.SE), opens new tab closed 4.1% higher, while Saudi Electricity Co (5110.SE), opens new tab jumped 6.3%, following a steep rise in quarterly net profit.

The biggest mover in Dubai was toll operator Salik Company (SALIK.DU), opens new tab, which gained 2.5%, while sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank (DISB.DU), opens new tab gained 1.2%, a day after reporting a rise in third-quarter profit.

In Abu Dhabi, conglomerate International Holding (IHC.AD), opens new tab rose 0.8% ahead of its earnings announcement.

However, crude prices - a catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets - fell as the U.S. dollar rallied on Trump's win.

Investors believe a Trump presidency will bolster the dollar as interest rates may need to remain high to combat inflation resulting from any new tariffs.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 0.8%, with Fawry For Banking Technology Electronic Payments (FWRY.CA), opens new tab rising 3.2%.

Egypt's net foreign reserves rose to $46.942 billion in October from $46.737 billion in September, the central bank said on Wednesday.

Tuesday 5 November 2024

#Saudi Aramco Is Burning Cash – It Needs to Stop - Bloomberg ht @JavierBlas

Saudi Aramco Is Burning Cash – It Needs to Stop - Bloomberg


If something cannot go on forever, it will stop. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, isn’t an exception — despite its $1.5 trillion-plus market value. With oil prices at $75 a barrel and production constrained by OPEC+ cuts, the state-owned company cannot afford its total dividend anymore. Lower payouts are looming.

Year-to-date, Aramco has paid dividends of $93.2 billion, financed by taking on debt as its free cashflow amounted to just $63.7 billion during the same period. Put simply, Aramco has burned through more than $100 million a day – a day – to finance its distribution to shareholders. Even the fortress-like balance sheet of the Saudi company cannot sustain that for ever.

The likely reduction matters to the Saudi government, which still controls about 97% of the company’s equity and relies on its largesse to finance its extravagant spending. It matters, too, to the few international investors that the Saudis have lured into Aramco with the promise of lavish payouts.

In some ways, the cut would be natural. Aramco pays two dividends: a base one, worth just over $20 billion per quarter, plus a so-called “performance-linked” payment worth just shy of $11 billion. When the company announced the introduction of its performance payout in mid-2023, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices to $100 a barrel, it guided investors to expect performance payouts for six quarters. If Aramco sticks to its plan, the sixth instalment would be declared in the current fourth quarter.

The Saudi government has used the big dividends to attract more investors in the hope of being able to sell small chunks of the company every few years. After the initial public offering in late 2019, Riyadh followed up with a secondary public offering in June. Buybacks, the preferred route for Big Oil to return extra capital to shareholders, aren’t an option for Riyadh, because they would further reduce the stock’s already minimal free float.

The extra dividend boosted the financial attraction of Aramco for the second share sale. At current market prices, the company trades at an unusually large dividend yield north of 7%, way higher than the 3.5% to 4.5% of Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. But even at such a generous level, few investors have taken the bait. This year, Aramco shares have underperformed all of its Big Oil rivals, including badly performing BP Plc.

If Aramco has to reduce its total dividend significantly in 2025, the underperformance is only going to get worse. Looking at its latest quarterly earnings, published on Tuesday, it doesn’t look like it will be able to extend its performance dividends any more.

When the extra payouts were introduced, Aramco said it intended to return 50% to 70% of its annual free cash flow, net of the base dividend and other expenses, to shareholders. But now, that income barely covers the base dividend. During the third quarter, Aramco reported free cash flow of nearly $22 billion and a base dividend payment of $20.3 billion. With oil down and the OPEC+ deal preventing Aramco from raising output, earnings are likely to drop further in the final three months of the year; it wouldn’t surprise me if Aramco can’t cover its base dividend between October and December.

In a worst-case scenario, the company won’t declare any performance dividend at all from early next year, reducing its quarterly dividend to about $21 billion in 2025, down nearly a third from this year’s total payouts. Aramco, of course, may get lucky if oil prices recover, perhaps due more geopolitical upheaval. It also may take on more debt to sustain higher payouts than its earnings alone would allow.

The beauty of the Saudi oil giant is that it can afford to undertake that kind of financial effort for a while. Compared with its peers, it remains virtually debt free. At the end of the third quarter, its gearing stood at just 1.9%, well below the 10% to 20% typical of Big Oil. Aramco targets gearing of 5% to 15%, so it can add another $50 billion in net debt without breaching its own targets. But taking on huge amounts of debt to finance dividend payments would only spook foreign investors, already lukewarm to the company’s financial messaging.

The prudent solution is to reset expectations — soon. The performance dividends will go away at the end of this year. Aramco can give assurances that its base dividend for 2025 is safe, even if for a few months it needs to borrow a bit more to offset lower oil prices. The balance sheet can tolerate such a move; it would also give Aramco room to reset its base dividend at a higher level.

But the kingdom would need to accept that with lower payouts comes a lower valuation. Aramco is a great company – but there’s an original sin: the royal’s insistence that it’s worth $2 trillion, no matter what. It isn’t worth that much — and financial engineering won’t bridge the gap.

Most Gulf markets gain ahead of US election | Reuters

Most Gulf markets gain ahead of US election | Reuters


Most stock markets in the Gulf rose on Tuesday as markets waited for early indications of the outcome of a knife-edge U.S. election.

Election Day ends an acrimonious campaign jolted by assassination attempts on Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump and the withdrawal of Democratic President Joe Biden in favour of Vice President Kamala Harris, with polls showing the candidates virtually tied.

Dubai's main share index (.TASI), opens new tab rose 0.2%, with Emirates Integrated Telecommunications (DU.DU), opens new tab up 2% and budget airliner Air Arabia (AIRA.DU), opens new tab gaining 1.1%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab added 0.6%, led by a 6.7% gain for Alpha Dhabi Holding (ALPHADHABI.AD), opens new tab.

ADNOC Drilling Company (ADNOCDRILL.AD), opens new tab and Alpha Dhabi Holding announced on Monday that their joint venture Enersol had agreed to acquire a 95% equity stake in Deep Well Services (DWS) for about $223 million including performance-based payments.

Shares of ADNOC Drilling were up 2.3%.

The Qatari index (.QSI), opens new tab finished 0.2% higher, with Qatar Gas Transport Nakilat (QGTS.QA), opens new tab rising 1.5%.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab edged 0.2% lower, hit by a 1.5% fall in ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab.

Oil giant Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab reversed early losses to close 0.2% higher, despite reporting a 15.4% drop in third-quarter profit due to lower crude prices and weaker refining margins. It maintained its dividend at $31.1 billion for the quarter.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab rose 0.5%.

Monday 4 November 2024

#Oman's OQ to list up to 49% stake in methanol, ammonia and LPG arm | Reuters

Oman's OQ to list up to 49% stake in methanol, ammonia and LPG arm | Reuters

Oman's OQ Base Industries (OQBI), the methanol, ammonia and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) arm of state-owned OQ, plans to list an up to 49% stake on the local stock exchange, it said on Monday, adding to a string of IPOs in the Gulf country.

The listing is part of a privatisation programme by state-owned energy group OQ, which is helping Oman - a small non-OPEC oil producer - to diversify its economy and cut its debt.

It would follow the flotation of OQ's exploration and production business (OQEP.OM), opens new tab, which raised about $2 billion last month in the country's biggest IPO ever.

OQBI is in talks with potential investors and working with bankers "to determine the fair price for the shares", CEO Khalid Khalfan Al Asmi told Reuters, without providing further details.

Based in Salalah, home to Oman's biggest port, OQBI operates three strategic divisions: methanol, ammonia and LPG products.

Methanol is a lower-carbon fuel while ammonia is mainly used in fertilisers and chemicals. LPG includes propane, butane, and cooking gas, which are used as fuel for cars, heating.

The company has a combined capacity of 1.8 million metric tons per annum of production (mtpa), with methanol accounting for around 1.1 mtpa of the total.

OQBI, which exports all of its produced methanol and ammonia and 87% of its LPG products, was leveraging its strategic location near major shipping lines, Al Asmi added.

It expects to pay a dividend of 32.7 million Omani riyals ($85 million) for 2024 and distribute a dividend at least 5% higher than this year's payout for 2025 and 2026.

The company posted revenue of more than $500 million for the 12 months (LTM) to the end of June 2024, it said.

OQBI said that all the proceeds from the offering will be distributed to the selling shareholders, with the subscription period expected to start this month. The shares are expected to begin trading in December.

Investcorp Veteran Is Said to Plan $1 Billion #AbuDhabi Fund - Bloomberg

Investcorp Veteran Is Said to Plan $1 Billion Abu Dhabi Fund - Bloomberg

The former co-chief executive officer of the Middle East’s top alternative asset manager is setting up a $1 billion permanent capital fund to buy stakes in financial services firms across the Global South, according to people familiar with the matter.

Hazem Ben-Gacem, who stepped down as co-chief executive officer of Investcorp Holdings in September, is in talks with investors across the US, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East to raise funds for BlueFive Capital, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private.

The Abu Dhabi-based vehicle will invest in insurance, private wealth and public-market brokerage firms, according to the people. The veteran deal-maker is leaning on a network of contacts that he built over three decades at Investcorp, before leaving as part of a sweeping reshuffle.

Ben-Gacem also plans to secure founding shareholders for BlueFive and potentially raise infrastructure and private equity funds in the future, the people said. That’s part of a five-year target of transforming BlueFive into a $25 billion entity, including assets of the firms it acquires, they said.

A spokesperson for Ben-Gacem declined to comment.

BlueFive will initially look to invest across Southeast Asia and Gulf Cooperation Council nations — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain — the people said. It will later look to invest in Latin America to create a financial services firm operating across the Global South, they said.

The fund is the latest to try and capitalize on rising investor interest in the Middle East and its growing political and trade ties across Latin America and Asia. As nations including Saudi Arabia and the UAE try to diversify their economies, they are increasingly hoping to boost trade and investment flows with other large developing nations like China and Brazil.

Investcorp established an investment vehicle backed by China Investment Corp. earlier this year. “That fund is coming along great, we are targeting about $750 million,” Chief Investment Officer Rishi Kapoor told Bloomberg TV last week, adding that the new entity has already inked three deals.

Ben-Gacem’s BlueFive will be based in Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital that’s lured some of the biggest names in finance. The emirate’s deep pools of capital, including three sovereign wealth funds that control $1.5 trillion in assets, have been a key part of the draw for firms.

One of those state-backed funds, the $302 billion Mubadala Investment Co., is a shareholder in Investcorp, which also counts some of the Middle East’s wealthiest royals and business moguls among its backers.

At Investcorp, Harvard-educated Ben-Gacem oversaw investing and capital raising with Mideast sovereign and institutional funds. He also led the firm’s Europe private equity business and global technology investments, and helped drive a push into Asia as part of a plan to double assets under management to more than $100 billion over the next few years.

Top Grocer Lulu Boosts Size of #AbuDhabi IPO to $1.72 Billion - Bloomberg

Top Grocer Lulu Boosts Size of Abu Dhabi IPO to $1.72 Billion - Bloomberg

Lulu Retail Holdings Plc increased the number of shares on offer in its Abu Dhabi initial public offering, and now targets raising as much as $1.72 billion in the United Arab Emirates’ biggest listing of the year.

Lulu International Holdings now plans to offer a 30% stake in the firm, or 3.10 billion shares, it said in a statement Monday. The price range remains unchanged at 1.94 dirhams ($0.53) to 2.04 dirhams per share.

The deal is likely to price at the top end, Bloomberg News reported earlier on Monday. Lulu previously planned to sell 2.58 billion shares, or a 25% stake, and raise as much as $1.43 billion. The firm had demand for all shares on offer an hour after books opened on the deal last week.

The firm cited a “significant level of demand received from international, regional and local investors, and the inclusion of additional cornerstone investors to the IPO,” as the reason for the increase. Saudi Arabia’s Masarrah Investment Co. will buy shares worth 250 million dirhams, it said.

Institutional investors including Abu Dhabi Pension Fund, Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding Company Co., Emirates International Investment Co., and Oman Investment Authority had already agreed to subscribe for shares worth 753 million dirhams.

Lulu operates one of the Middle East’s largest hypermarket chains. It reported a profit of $192 million last year, and aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75%. Its net profit margins are expected to reach 5% over the medium term, up from 2.6% in 2023, its chief executive officer told Bloomberg News.

The company — founded by Indian entrepreneur Yusuff Ali — plans to open about 90 stores across the Gulf over the next five years, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE slated as its main expansion markets.

Final pricing is expected on Nov. 6, and the shares are scheduled to begin trading on Nov. 14. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Citigroup Inc., Emirates NBD Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc are the joint global coordinators on the sale. Moelis & Co. is an advisor on the deal.

The Middle East has seen a flurry of new share sales this year, which have raised just shy of $8 billion — with the UAE accounting for around 30% — despite the conflict in the region. Oman’s state energy company unveiled plans for an IPO of its methanol and liquefied petroleum gas unit on Monday, while the share sale of a Saudi financial services firm is also likely to price at the top end of a range, Bloomberg News reported.

LuLu’s IPO will be the biggest private sector listing in the region in 2024, and there are more in the pipeline. Delivery Hero SE’s Middle Eastern unit Talabat and IT services firm Alpha Data are preparing to list in the UAE before year end.

High-end supermarket chain Spinneys 1961 Holding Plc had raised $374 million from a Dubai listing in May, though the stock had a relatively muted debut and its shares still trade around the offer price.

Most Gulf markets in red on regional tensions | Reuters

Most Gulf markets in red on regional tensions | Reuters


Most stock markets in the Gulf ended lower on Monday after a report suggesting Iran might be preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel unnerved investors.

The United States has warned Iran against launching another attack on Israel, adding Washington will not be able to restrain Israel if it attacks again, Axios reported on Saturday, citing a U.S. official and a former Israeli official.

Axios previously reported Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab eased 0.1%, with aluminium products manufacturer Al Taiseer Group (4143.SE), opens new tab falling 0.2% and ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab dropping 2.2%.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab dropped 0.8%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab losing 0.8% and Tecom Group (TECOM.DU), opens new tab retreating 2.2%.

The Abu Dhabi index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab finished 0.2% lower.

Investors were also wary of the decision by OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, to delay plans to increase crude output by a month.

On Sunday, OPEC+ said it would extend its output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for another month in December, with an increase already delayed from October because of falling prices and weak demand.

Lower prices and disruptions to crude exports impact fiscal balances in countries reliant on oil income.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab gained 0.4%, with Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA), opens new tab rising 0.9% and telecom firm Ooredoo (ORDS.QA), opens new tab advanced 1.8%.

Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has set Tuesday as the date for a referendum on constitutional amendments, including a proposal that would abandon an effort to introduce elections.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab lost 0.6%, hit by a 1% fall in Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab, despite the lender reporting a steep rise in third-quarter profit.

Sunday 3 November 2024

Most Gulf markets subdued on regional tensions | Reuters

Most Gulf markets subdued on regional tensions | Reuters


Most stock markets in the Gulf were subdued on Sunday after a report suggested Iran might be preparing a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days.

The U.S. has warned Iran against launching another attack on Israel, adding Washington will not be able to restrain Israel if it attacks again, Axios reported on Saturday, citing a U.S. official and a former Israeli official.

Axios previously reported that Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab edged 0.2% higher, helped by a 3.2% rise in ACWA Power Company (2082.SE), opens new tab.

Among other gainers, MBC Group (4072.SE), opens new tab surged 10% - to its daily maximum limit - after Istedamah signed a binding share sale and purchase agreement with Public Investment Fund to sell its entire stake in the media giant MBC Group.

In Qatar, the index (.QSI), opens new tab lost 0.2%, hit by a 0.5% fall in the Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA), opens new tab.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30), opens new tab gained 0.6%, with Commercial International Bank (COMI.CA), opens new tab rising 1.3%.

The International Monetary Fund will begin its review of Egypt's loan programme on Tuesday, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Sunday at a press conference with IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Friday 1 November 2024

Elon Musk in funding talks with Middle East investors to value xAI at $45bn

Elon Musk in funding talks with Middle East investors to value xAI at $45bn

Elon Musk is in talks with some of the largest investors in the Middle East about a fundraising for his artificial intelligence start-up that could roughly double the one-year-old company’s valuation to $45bn. 

According to six people with knowledge of the conversations, xAI is in early talks with new and existing investors, seeking fresh capital to compete with OpenAI, which recently raised more than $10bn in debt and equity, as well as Anthropic and Big Tech rivals including Google and Meta. 

Musk has approached investors in Qatar and Saudi Arabia about backing his AI start-up, according to three of the people. He has also talked to current investors including Sequoia Capital and Valor Equity Partners. 

A potential valuation of $45bn has been floated with investors, close to double the level reached in a funding round this summer, said two of the people. Valor is expected to lead the round and Sequoia to participate, according to two other people with knowledge of the discussions, who cautioned they were at a preliminary stage and that the target valuation and participation could change. 

Sequoia declined to comment. Musk and Valor did not respond to a request for comment.

Mubadala and KKR among groups that have held talks with UK data firm 9fin

Mubadala and KKR among groups that have held talks with UK data firm 9fin

Firms including Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Capital and private equity giant KKR have held talks to invest in UK corporate debt research start-up 9fin, in a deal that would value the privately held company at around $500mn, according to people familiar with the matter. 

An investment would mark the latest in a flurry of high-profile transactions for businesses that provide information on niche areas of financial markets. 

No final agreement has been reached and may be weeks away, said the people. Other suitors had also been part of the stake sale process. 9fin, Mubadala Capital and KKR declined to comment. 

9fin was founded in 2016 in London by former JPMorgan banker Steven Hunter and Huss El-Sheikh, who previously worked for Deutsche Bank. It employs journalists who break news about leveraged finance deals as well as former deal lawyers and financial analysts who write analysis on investment opportunities.

#UAE markets boosted by earnings and oil prices | Reuters

UAE markets boosted by earnings and oil prices | Reuters


Stock markets in United Arab Emirates closed higher on Friday, lifted by positive earnings results and a jump in oil prices caused by reports Iran is preparing to launch a retaliatory strike on Israel from Iraq in the coming days.

Oil prices rose 2.1% to $74.30 a barrel by 1042 GMT.

In the oil-producing Gulf, higher crude prices spur gains. Banking stocks stand to be the biggest winners from any extra income.

Dubai's main index (.DFMGI), opens new tab started November with 0.7% in gains, rebounding from previous session's loss with leading lender Emirates NBD Bank (ENBD.DU), opens new tab increasing 1.8% and blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab rising 1.7%.

Other gainers included business park operator Tecom Group (TECOM.DU), opens new tab. It rose 0.6% after the firm posted 20% growth in third-quarter net profit to 339.6 million dirhams ($92.46 million).

Abu Dhabi's benchmark index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab settled 0.2% higher, extending gains to sixth straight session, supported by a 2% hike in UAE's largest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD), opens new tab and 2.9% jump in UAE's third largest lender Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB.AD), opens new tab.

The Dubai index increased by 3.2%, its biggest weekly gains since early November Last year. On a monthly basis the index recorded 1.9% growth, according to LSEG data.

Abu Dhabi index advanced 1.6%, its highest weekly rise in nearly two months.