Tuesday 1 December 2020

Oil slides as OPEC+ delays decision on output cuts | Reuters

Oil slides as OPEC+ delays decision on output cuts | Reuters

Oil prices extended losses to a second day on Tuesday after OPEC and its allies left markets in limbo by postponing a formal meeting to decide whether to lift output come January.

Brent crude ended the session down 46 cents, or 1%, at $47.42 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled down 79 cents, or 1.7%, at $44.55.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, a group known as OPEC+, delayed talks on next year’s output policy to Thursday from Tuesday, sources said.

OPEC+ had been expected to ease current production cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2 million bpd from January.

However, the group has been considering extending existing cuts of about 8% of global demand into the first months of 2021, a position backed by de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, sources say. Russia, meanwhile, backs a gradual increase.

Coronavirus Oil Quotas: OPEC's Lost Its Team Spirit - Bloomberg

Coronavirus Oil Quotas: OPEC's Lost Its Team Spirit - Bloomberg

OPEC's historic output agreement may be teetering on the edge of collapse. It wouldn’t be in the interest of a single cartel member, but then nor was letting that last deal implode in March. Ignoring the risk of another breakdown seems blinkered.

What was meant to be a pretty straightforward meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries broke up spectacularly on Monday. So they pushed back a gathering with their OPEC+ allies from Tuesday to Thursday in order to allow themselves more time to try to reach agreement internally first.

It’s hard to believe things are so tense given there appeared to be little argument over the need to delay a planned tapering of the output cuts while economies are still roiled by the coronavirus. Adding 1.9 million barrels a day of supply to the market from the start of January would be a reckless gamble given the recovery in oil demand remains patchy. Bloated stockpiles of crude and refined products need to be drawn down before pumping more oil.

The disagreement is more fundamental to the group’s inner workings. It appears to hinge on conditions demanded by the United Arab Emirates that OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, finds unacceptable: That all the countries that have failed to comply with their targets so far continue to make up for it next year.

It’s no secret that the UAE is unhappy with its own output quota, which it regards as tougher than those imposed on fellow members, and that it’s eager to utilize more of its newly-installed production capacity before oil demand starts to wane again.



OPEC Splits at Its Core, Risking Deal That Underpins Oil Price - Bloomberg

OPEC Splits at Its Core, Risking Deal That Underpins Oil Price - Bloomberg

The successful OPEC+ deal that’s supported the oil market since the price crash earlier this year is threatened by a new fissure at the heart of the cartel.

Unusual tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- longtime OPEC stalwarts and close allies -- have prevented what was widely expected to be a routine agreement to delay a production increase scheduled for January. Instead of a deal, a ministerial video conference on Monday delivered nothing to the expectant market, and yielded frustration and recrimination behind closed doors.

Informal talks will continue by phone in the coming days, after OPEC+ gave itself more time to reach a compromise by pushing back its final meeting by two days to Thursday. Behind closed doors, oil diplomats tried to lower the temperature, with delegates saying they should be able to patch up their differences after consultations with their own governments.

Many cartel-watchers also expect a compromise that would see the bulk of the group’s production cuts continue, underpinning the recent rally in crude prices. However, the depth of the split also raises the slim possibility of a more damaging breakdown that could trigger another oil crash.

“The market is underestimating a little bit how serious this is -- this is one of Saudi Arabia’s biggest allies,” Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., told Bloomberg Television. She didn’t predict a messy outcome this week, but sees tensions persisting into next year.



Peak Oil Is Suddenly Upon Us

Peak Oil Is Suddenly Upon Us

A year ago, if anyone in the petroleum business had suggested that the moment of Peak Oil had already passed, they would have been laughed right off the drilling rig. Then 2020 happened.

Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.

As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.

BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent.



HSBC increases stake in #Saudi British Bank to 31% - statement | Reuters

HSBC increases stake in Saudi British Bank to 31% - statement | Reuters

HSBC, through its subsidiary HSBC Holdings B.V., has purchased shares in Saudi British Bank which will increase its shareholding in the Saudi lender to 31% from 29.2%, the bank said on Tuesday.

It said the stake increase followed the participation in an accelerated book build process launched on Nov. 30 by NatWest Markets and Banco Santander.

Investment banks stick with Gulf despite falling fees | Financial Times

Investment banks stick with Gulf despite falling fees | Financial Times

Fees are falling, oil prices are low and the region’s economies are under threat. But top global investment banks say they have no intention of pulling back from the Gulf. 

Regional fees from M&A, loans, debt and equity issuance fell 7 per cent in the 10 months to the end of October, Refinitiv data show. Globally, meanwhile, fees rose 17 per cent in the same period as companies in the US and Europe raised cash to deal with the impact of the pandemic. 

Comparisons with the rest of the world are likely to be worse for the full year, because last December’s Saudi Aramco IPO — the world’s highest-value listing — drove a one-off fees bonanza for the Gulf in the final months of 2019. 

The outlook for 2021 is less clear, as the pandemic spurs activity in certain areas, such as cash raises for relatively healthy companies and restructuring of balance sheets for struggling ones, while stifling other activities, such as fundraising as investors fret that economies could worsen so much they will not get their money back.



MIDEAST STOCKS- #Saudi stocks weaken after stellar November | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi stocks weaken after stellar November | Nasdaq

Saudi shares started the month on a weaker note on Tuesday after the bourse's benchmark index nailed solid gains in November on global cheer over the progress of COVID-19 vaccine candidates.

Investors worldwide are pinning their hopes on positive vaccine trial data, fuelling optimism about a faster than expected economic recovery.

Oil prices, a key catalyst for the region's financial markets, were broadly steady on Tuesday as investors awaited direction from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies after the producers postponed a formal meeting to decide whether to lift output from January. O/R

The OPEC, Russia and other allies, a group known as OPEC+, delayed talks on next year's output policy to Thursday from Tuesday, as the main players had yet to agree, sources said.

The Saudi bourse's benchmark index, which posted its best monthly gain in four years in November, lost 0.3% in the first trading session of the month.

Financial stocks dragged the index down with Saudi British Bank 1060.SE and Banque Saudi Fransi 1050.SE among top losers, declining about 8% and 2%, respectively.

Healthcare firm Dr. Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services Group Co 4013.SE fell 3.2%.

Among gainers, Saudi Arabia's biggest lender National Commercial Bank 1180.SE tacked on 1.4%.

The markets in the United Arab Emirates are closed for holidays till the end of this trading week and will reopen on Sunday.

Elsewhere, in Qatar, the main share index .QSI gained 1.3% with Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA and Qatar Islamic Bank QISB.QA putting on 3.2% and about 2%, respectively.

The Kuwait main index .BKP declined nearly a percent, with utility firm Shamal Az-Zour Al-Oula Power & Water Co AZNOULA.KW leading the decliners, falling 3.9%.

Gulf regulators must clarify their cross-border responsibilities | Financial Times ht @governcenter

Gulf regulators must clarify their cross-border responsibilities | Financial Times

In the past three years, some of the Gulf’s leading companies, including Abraaj, Drake & Scull, Arabtec, Al Mojel, and most recently NMC Healthcare, have been stung by problems that highlighted unaddressed governance risks. 

These occurred after an increase in corporate governance regulations, introduced after a domestic equity-market crisis in 2005. Market manipulation had been prevalent and capital market regulators were brought in to repair confidence. 

Foreign investors are surprised that, in some respects, corporate governance regulations now are tougher here than in emerging-market peers. In some countries, regulators have unusual powers that include attending board meetings of listed companies. Combining the roles of chair and CEO is allowed in listed companies in the US, but not the Gulf. 

But following these bold corporate governance reforms, the spirit of these regulations and corporate practice differ. The resulting gap has implications for economic stability and even the delivery of essential services. NMC, the largest private healthcare provider in the UAE, became embroiled in a governance scandal just as the coronavirus pandemic was taking off. 

As regulators examine the lessons of these events, they must clarify and enforce the rules for companies operating across jurisdictions. They must also agree on their respective oversight and enforcement obligations. This is critical for companies such as NMC, which is listed in London but regulated in the UAE, as well for those offering cross-border financial services, as Abraaj did before the private equity firm’s collapse in 2018.

Gulf states turn inward as they face diminishing resources | Financial Times

Gulf states turn inward as they face diminishing resources | Financial Times

In the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious sovereign wealth fund scented an opportunity.

As global markets plummeted, the Public Investment Fund went on a spending spree, buying stakes in a host of US and European blue-chip stocks in the first three months of the year, worth collectively at least $7.7bn.

But Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto leader and the PIF’s chair, last month signalled a potential shift in focus as Saudi Arabia, like other Gulf countries, grapples with a rising fiscal deficit and an economy battered by the pandemic and the fall in oil prices.

In a November speech to the Shura Council, an advisory body, Prince Mohammed said the $347bn fund would pump about $40bn into the Saudi economy annually in 2021 and 2022, up from $15.5bn last year.

“This liquidity will be provided through monetisation and recycling of the fund's investments to enter into new opportunities, [and] create a local economic cycle that enables the emergence of new sectors,” he said.



Turkey Wealth Fund to Retry Bond Sale as It Plans IPO of Assets - Bloomberg

Turkey Wealth Fund to Retry Bond Sale as It Plans IPO of Assets - Bloomberg

Turkey’s sovereign wealth fund will retry a Eurobond issuance next year after its debut was shelved two months ago due to weak investor demand, and is also considering selling shares in some of its assets.

The institution is weighing an initial public offering of stock-exchange operator Borsa Istanbul AS within the next two years, Chief Executive Officer Zafer Sonmez said in an interview with BloombergHT TV. The fund on Monday sold a 10% stake in the bourse to Qatar Investment Authority for $200 million.

The fund wants to become a regular issuer in international debt markets with Eurobond sales every “18 to 24 months,” he said. While it is slightly more expensive for wealth funds to borrow internationally compared with sovereign debt sales, the fund can also rely on dividends from the companies it owns and proceeds from asset sales to fund its operations.

The fund, set up in 2016 to invest in new businesses and back state-owned firms, wants to help further stoke growth in an economy that outpaced peers in the third quarter. Sonmez sees the fund contributing toward an entrepreneurial state, a term borrowed from economist Mariana Mazzucato, who argues that governments are often the force behind transformative innovation.

Dyal, Wafra Set to Buy Minority Stake in Venture Firm NEA - Bloomberg

Dyal, Wafra Set to Buy Minority Stake in Venture Firm NEA - Bloomberg

An investor group led by Neuberger Berman’s Dyal Capital Partners and Kuwait-backed Wafra Inc. is in talks to buy a minority stake in New Enterprise Associates, one of the world’s largest venture capital firms, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A deal is slated to be completed by year-end, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. The stake represents about 15% of NEA, one of the people said. The Silicon Valley firm had been in talks with several potential investors, Bloomberg reported last month.

Spokespeople for NEA and Dyal declined to comment, and a Wafra representative had no immediate comment.

The transaction would echo a move by General Catalyst, which sold a minority stake to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Petershill unit in 2018. Venture firms, like private equity firms, have long been expected to pursue stake sales to raise capital that can be used to reinvest in new vehicles, expand into new strategies or simply give partners a way to partially cash out.

Oil Near $45 With OPEC+ Struggling for Consensus on Output - Bloomberg

Oil Near $45 With OPEC+ Struggling for Consensus on Output - Bloomberg

Oil traded near $45 a barrel in New York with OPEC seeking more time to reach a deal on production policy after a meeting broke down without an agreement.

Futures flipped between gains and losses having earlier been buoyed by a weaker dollar. The recovery in Asia gathered pace as factory activity in South Korea and China surged in November. The rebound highlights the uneven global oil demand picture OPEC+ is facing, with Europe and the U.S. grappling with a resurgent outbreak.

Ministers from the alliance will now meet on Thursday rather than Tuesday to allow more time to deliberate on whether to delay a planned increase in output from January. While some see the market as too fragile to absorb additional barrels, others are keen to pump more oil to take advantage of higher prices following Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs.



Emirates, Etihad 'can work together' to meet post-Covid air travel demand - Arabianbusiness

Emirates, Etihad 'can work together' to meet post-Covid air travel demand - Arabianbusiness

Emirates is likely to benefit in the markets that Etihad Airways withdraws from in the wake of its move to restructure its business model to become a leaner airline after the coronavirus pandemic, according to the airline's president Sir Tim Clark.

In an interview with Aviation Business, a sister publication of Arabian Business, Clark also said he is bullish about the future use of the A380 superjumbo, in spite of gloomy forecasts from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Clark said that the two UAE airlines will be able to work together to solve demand issues in the country following Etihad’s restructure.

“With their announcement to concentrate on making them a leaner airline it is likely that Emirates will benefit from where they have withdrawn. I’m not saying we’re predatory in all that; I’m quite sure that Emirates and Etihad can work together to resolve quite a few of the demand issues that come out of the UAE with regard to them contracting their work and reinstatement of ours.”

Clark said he was optimistic "that there will be some kind of meeting of the minds with regards to how we go about this".

OPEC+ Talks Delayed as Split Deepens Between Key Gulf Allies - Bloomberg

OPEC+ Talks Delayed as Split Deepens Between Key Gulf Allies - Bloomberg

OPEC+ talks were delayed for two days to give ministers more time to reach a deal, after a long and tense meeting on oil production broke down without an agreement.

The move, set out in a letter seen by Bloomberg, was the most dramatic sign yet of the deep division inside the cartel after hours of talks on Monday yielded no result. Oil prices, which have rallied on vaccine hopes as well as expectations that OPEC will maintain its current output curbs, slipped on the news.

OPEC ministers met on Monday and had been scheduled to talk to their non-OPEC partners on Tuesday. At one point, there had appeared to be a consensus building between ministers yesterday, but the meeting then became unusually fraught. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, in what appeared to be a gesture of frustration, told others he may resign as co-chair of a key OPEC+ panel.

At stake is the credibility of the cartel whose actions have underpinned the market since the spectacular oil crash earlier this year. The run-up to the meeting saw new cracks emerge in the relationship between the United Arab Emirates -- a core part of the group -- and other members. The UAE’s national long-term strategy to crank up production is clashing with the cartel’s current strictures.

“The market is underestimating a little bit how serious this is -- this is one of Saudi Arabia’s biggest allies,” Amrita Sen, co-founder of consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., told Bloomberg Television. She doesn’t predict a messy outcome this week, but sees tensions persisting into next year. “Despite the disputes, they will get through this one.”

Arabtec Holding to file application for insolvent liquidation | ZAWYA MENA Edition

Arabtec Holding to file application for insolvent liquidation | ZAWYA MENA Edition

At a General Assembly Meeting held on Monday, Arabtec Holding PJSC ("Arabtec" or "Company"), confirmed that it will, at the earliest opportunity, file an application for its insolvent liquidation at the competent courts.

In accordance with the resolution of the Company’s shareholders at the General Assembly Meeting held on September 30, 2020, the conclusion was reached following a two-month period of discussions with key stakeholders.

The Board has concluded that it is no longer tenable for the Company to continue operating outside of a formal insolvency process and that it is in the best interests of the Company’s stakeholders that the Company be placed into an insolvent liquidation (subject to court approval) at the earliest opportunity.

Owing to inter-dependencies of certain of the Company’s subsidiaries, the application to the competent courts will also request that Arabtec Construction LLC, Arabtec Constructions LLC, Austrian Arabian Readymix Concrete Co LLC and Arabtec Precast LLC (collectively the Impacted Companies) will also be placed into insolvent liquidation simultaneously.

Oil ticks up as OPEC, allies delay output deal meeting | Reuters

Oil ticks up as OPEC, allies delay output deal meeting | Reuters

Oil prices ticked up on Tuesday, with early European trading erasing earlier losses, as all eyes were on talks between OPEC and its allies who postponed a formal meeting to decide whether to increase output from next month.

Brent crude was up 31 cents at $48.19 a barrel by 0847 GMT. West Texas Intermediate was up 28 cents at $45.62.

Both contracts surged around 27% in November after COVID-19 vaccine developments raised hopes of an economic recovery that could revive fuel demand.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, delayed talks on output policy for next year until Thursday, sources told Reuters, as important players had not reached consensus.

MIDEAST STOCKS- #Saudi starts last month of 2020 on wobbly footing after a stellar November | Nasdaq

MIDEAST STOCKS-Saudi starts last month of 2020 on wobbly footing after a stellar November | Nasdaq

Saudi shares started the month on a weaker note on Tuesday, tracking lower oil prices, after the benchmark nailed solid gains in November on global cheer over the progress of COVID-19 vaccine candidates.

Investors worldwide are pinning their hopes on positive vaccine trial data, fuelling optimism about an economic recovery at a pace faster than expected initially.

But on Tuesday, oil prices fell due to concerns over mounting supply after leading producers delayed talks on 2021 output policy that could extend cuts as the coronavirus pandemic continues to sap fuel demand. O/R

OPEC and allies led by Russia postponed the talks to Thursday, three sources said on Monday, as key players still disagreed on how much oil they should pump.

Saudi benchmark, which posted its best monthly gain in four years in November, eased 0.2% in morning trade.

Financials stocks dragged the benchmark with Saudi British Bank 1060.SE and Riyad Bank 1010.SE among top losers, declining 6% and 1.5%, respectively.

Oil behemoth and index heavyweight Saudi Aramco 2222.SE fell 0.4%, while Saudi Arabia's second-largest lender by assets Al-Rajhi Bank 1120.SE shed 0.3%.

Among gainers on the Saudi benchmark, food processing firm Wafrah For Industry & Development Co 2100.SE tacked on nearly 10%.

The markets in the United Arab Emirates are closed for holidays till the end of this trading week and will reopen on Sunday.

Elsewhere, in Qatar, the benchmark .QSI gained 0.7% with Qatar National Bank QNBK.QA and Qatar Islamic Bank QISB.QA putting on nearly 2% each.

The Kuwait benchmark .BKP declined 0.8%, with utility firm Shamal Az-Zour Al-Oula Power & Water Co AZNOULA.KW leading the decliners, falling 2.4%.