Wednesday 31 July 2024

Top Kuwaiti Islamic Banks Eye Deal to Create $50 Billion Lender - Bloomberg

Top Kuwaiti Islamic Banks Eye Deal to Create $50 Billion Lender - Bloomberg

Two of Kuwait’s largest Islamic lenders are considering a merger that would create a regional banking behemoth with more than $50 billion in assets.

Boubyan Bank and Gulf Bank plan to conduct due diligence and valuation studies to consider the feasibility of a combination, according to a statement. Shares in both lenders jumped Wednesday morning in Kuwait.

Boubyan has assets of 8.89 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($29 billion), while Gulf Bank has 7.43 billion dinars. Their talks come amid a wave of banking consolidation across the Middle East, where lenders have sought to gain more scale to better compete with rivals.

Kuwait Finance House has been exploring the purchase of a significant stake in Saudi Investment Bank, Bloomberg News reported last month. One of the last major deals also involved KFH, which agreed in 2022 to acquire Bahrain’s Ahli United following four years of negotiations.

Meanwhile, National Bank of Bahrain BSC has hired Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as financial adviser as it weighs a potential merger with local rival BBK BSC.

Boubyan has a market capitalization of 2.47 billion Kuwaiti dinars, and counts National Bank of Kuwait SAKP as its biggest shareholder. Commercial Bank of Kuwait KPSC also owns part of the lender.

Gulf Bank has a valuation of 1.17 billion Kuwaiti dinars and Alghanim Trading Co. owns a third of the lender, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets in red after killing of Hamas leader

Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf markets in red after killing of Hamas leader


Most stock markets in the Middle East ended lower on Wednesday as the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran fuelled tensions in the region, with investors also focused on a U.S. interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.

Haniyeh was assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran, the Palestinian militant group said on Wednesday, stoking fears of further escalation in a region shaken by Israel's war in Gaza and a worsening conflict in Lebanon.

The assassination, which came less than 24 hours after Israel claimed to have killed the Hezbollah commander it said was behind a deadly strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, appeared to set back chances of any imminent ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

Dubai's main share index dropped 0.4%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties falling 4.8%. 

In Abu Dhabi, the index retreated 0.6%. 

The United Arab Emirates stock markets were affected by the geopolitical tensions, said Mazen Salhab, Chief Market Strategist MENA, at BDSwiss.

"Investors are looking forward to more earnings releases, which could support further gains, especially in the Dubai market if Emaar reports higher-than-expected results." 

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index reversed early losses to close 0.4% higher, helped by a 0.7% rise in Al Rajhi Bank.

The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but also to indicate that a reduction in borrowing costs could come as soon as September. It has kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the past year.

Monetary policy in the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is usually guided by the Fed's decisions as most regional currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar.

The Qatari benchmark finished flat. 

Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index advanced 1.2%, led by a 1.3% gain in top lender Commercial International Bank. 

Egypt will aim to keep the price of diesel - one of the country's most commonly used fuels - subsidised by raising other petrol prices, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a televised round table with journalists on Tuesday.

#AbuDhabi's Borouge posts 33% jump in second quarter profit | Reuters

Abu Dhabi's Borouge posts 33% jump in second quarter profit | Reuters

Abu Dhabi petrochemicals firm Borouge (BOROUGE.AD), opens new tab on Wednesday reported a 33% jump in second-quarter net profit, beating estimates, on the back of higher production volumes and efficiencies.

Borouge reported income of $308 million in the three months to end-June. Revenues were up 6% to $1.5 billion.

That beat analysts' average expectation of $294.67 million profit for the quarter, according to LSEG.

Borouge is a joint venture between UAE state oil giant ADNOC and Borealis in which they hold a 54% and 36% stake, respectively. Borealis is a joint venture owned in which Austria's OMV (OMVV.VI), opens new tab owns 75% and ADNOC owns 25% by ADNOC.

Last week, Borouge said it planned to build a polyolefins complex in China with Wanhua Chemical (600309.SS), opens new tab through a consortium with ADNOC and Borealis to boost growth in its core Asia market.

ADNOC and OMV have been in talks for over a year about a merger of Borouge and Borealis, which would create a chemicals group with over $20 billion in annual sales.

In addition to Asia, Borouge's core markets are the Middle East and Africa. Asia Pacific accounted for about two thirds of sales, the same as a year prior, while the Middle East and Africa made up 28% of sales, up from 27% at the end of June 2023, it said.

Average sale prices were marginally lower in the quarter, as a small drop in polyethylene prices was offset by a marginal rise in polypropylene prices.

Borouge said it remains committed to a 2024 dividend of $1.3 billion.

Borouge said it has reached over 70% completion of Borouge 4 which would increase its production capacity by 28%. The project is expected to be completed by the end of next year and is seen adding $1.5-1.9 billion in annual revenue.

Major Gulf markets ease amid tensions after killing of Hamas leader | Reuters

Major Gulf markets ease amid tensions after killing of Hamas leader | Reuters

Major stock markets in the Gulf eased in early trade on Wednesday, as the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran fuelled tensions in the region.

Haniyeh was assassinated in the early hours of the morning in Iran, the Palestinian militant group said on Wednesday, drawing fears of wider escalation in a region shaken by Israel's war in Gaza and a worsening conflict in Lebanon.

The assassination, which came less than 24 hours after Israel claimed to have killed the Hezbollah commander it said was behind a deadly strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, appeared to set back chances of any imminent ceasefire agreement in Gaza.

Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI), opens new tab fell 0.3%, hit by a 4% slide in aluminium products manufacturer Al Taiseer Group (4143.SE), opens new tab and a 0.6% decrease in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE), opens new tab.

Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI), opens new tab eased 0.1%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU), opens new tab falling 1.2%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index (.FTFADGI), opens new tab dropped 0.5%, with conglomerate International Holding (IHC.AD), opens new tab losing 0.2%.

Oil futures rebounded from 7-week lows after the assassination, but prices stayed under pressure from concerns about weak Chinese demand.

The Qatari benchmark (.QSI), opens new tab was down 0.2%, weighed down by a 1.9% decline in Qatar Navigation (QNNC.QA), opens new tab retreating 1.9%.

On the other hand, telecoms firm Ooredoo (ORDS.QA), opens new tab added 0.8% after reporting a rise in second-quarter profit, which limited the declines in the benchmark.

Turkey Stocks, Lira (TRY) Are Making a Comeback With Investors - Bloomberg

Turkey Stocks, Lira (TRY) Are Making a Comeback With Investors - Bloomberg


Just a few months ago, Amundi SA warned investors should stay clear of Turkish bonds. Now, it’s among their favorite trades.

The $2.3 trillion money manager believes Turkey is charting a path back to economic normalcy that will supercharge its markets. It’s part of a wider transformation that’s taken place since March as skeptical investors turn bullish on the tough reforms led by a team of technocrats under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

What started as a trickle of investor cash last year is now a torrent, and firms from Abrdn Plc to Vanguard Asset Services Ltd. are building up positions. Foreign ownership of Turkish stocks and bonds now stands at the highest level in five years, with more than $30 billion flowing in since May 2023, according to central bank data compiled by Bloomberg. It shows that money managers, who left when Erdogan enacted his controversial policy of cutting interest rates in the face of double-digit inflation, are quickly coming back.

Still, for all the enthusiasm over rallying markets, many are quick to point out that Turkey still has a long way to go. The country has one of the world’s highest inflation rates, and Erdogan’s track record of U-turns and surprise decisions hasn’t been forgotten. Foreign ownership of stocks and bonds is a fraction of what it used to be in 2012.

“It’s going to take some time. It isn’t going to be a Big Bang,” said Yerlan Syzdykov, who leads Amundi’s emerging-markets division. “The economic team is managing political and market pressures quite well, and we are happy to be positive across fixed income and equity.”

Turkey is now “the number one topic” for emerging-market investors, said Simon Quijano-Evans, the chief economist at Gemcorp Capital Management Ltd. Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, now counts Turkey as a top five holding among emerging-market local currency bonds, having also scooped up corporate debt and shares.

Bullish investors see a growing body of evidence that the economy is finding stability. The central bank announced this month that its returning a $5 billion deposit from Saudi Arabia, which indicated to analysts that Turkey’s is confident in its ability to restore foreign-exchange reserves. The news came just days after Moody’s Ratings raised the country’s credit score for the first time in more than a decade.

“We’ve been very impressed with policy in Turkey,” said Arif Joshi, who supervises about $9 billion as co-head of the emerging-market debt team at Lazard Asset Management in New York.

Three years ago, the situation couldn’t have been more different after the firing of central bank chief Naci Agbal, who raised interest rates to quell inflation. Subsequently Erdogan doubled down on policies that caused price growth to skyrocket. So when the Turkish president chose Mehmet Simsek as finance minister in June 2023, there were plenty of doubts that he’d face a different fate than his predecessors.

Instead, Simsek and a new team at the central bank embarked on a cycle of monetary tightening, hoisting the main rate to 50%. They loosened some controls on the lira and gradually pivoted back toward more orthodox policies. The key turning point, investors say, was Erdogan’s choice not to shake up key economic posts after his allies were defeated in local elections in March — a move that signaled commitment to his team.

Stocks and bonds have soared in the months since the late March election. Local-currency bonds have risen 6.3%, outstripping the 1.1% average of similar emerging- market debt. The Borsa Istanbul 100 stock index has returned 16% in dollar terms, making it one of the world’s best-performing indexes.

Meanwhile, the lira is showing early signs of stability, hovering around 33 to the dollar in the past few months. The currency has undergone a massive depreciation in recent years caused by inflation rates above 70%.

The influx of foreign capital into Turkish assets may be overdone, according to Bob Savage, head of markets and strategy at BNY. He says investors are ignoring pitfalls, such as geopolitical risks that could lead to a reversal of inflows.

“Turkey is at the crossroads of a mess,” Savage said in an interview. “You could see the Iranian-Israeli conflict getting worse. You could see the Russia-Ukraine conflict getting worse. And Iran being part of that story and Turkey being caught in the middle.”

Kieran Curtis, investment director at Abrdn in London, said he’s been increasing Turkish holdings even as longer-term political risks persist. “I trust the current finance and economy team, but there is always the chance that next time an election needs fighting, there will be a change,” he said. “Frankly, I don’t think anyone can take a long-term view on this.”

But for now, investors are praising Simsek for tackling inflation and building up in the country’s foreign exchange reserves, while still warning that the mission isn’t over yet.

“They've done a very good job of communicating what they are trying to accomplish,” said Jeff Grills, head of emerging markets debt at Aegon Asset Management. “They still haven't won. Inflation is still running very high, but the market has clearly given them the benefit of the doubt. So the challenge I think for Turkey from an investment standpoint is spreads have already priced in a victory on everything that they need to accomplish.”

Still in the view of Nick Eisinger, co-head of emerging markets active fixed income at Vanguard Asset Services Ltd., one of the attractions of investing in Turkey is how under-invested the market is. He’s flipped from being running short trades on the lira to holding small long positions, and owning 10-year bonds as the country’s economy and its foreign reserves strengthened.

“There's a lot of room for investors to get back into the market,” he said. “The next big thing really is going to be when inflation turns. Because when that happens, then I think you'll get another wave.”

#Saudi Economy: GDP Contracts For Fourth Quarter on OPEC+ Oil Curbs - Bloomberg

Saudi Economy: GDP Contracts For Fourth Quarter on OPEC+ Oil Curbs - Bloomberg


Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product contracted slightly for the fourth quarter in a row as OPEC+ production cuts continued to weigh on the economy of the world’s top oil exporter.

The kingdom’s economic output shrank 0.4% on an annual basis during the April-June period, according to preliminary data published by the General Authority for Statistics on Wednesday. That was primarily driven by an 8.5% contraction in the oil sector.

The reading was better than the 1.7% contraction recorded during the previous three-month period, as activity in non-oil economy grew by 4.4%, up from 3.4% previously.

Authorities have long focused on the expansion of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy that generates jobs for the bulk of the population. But growth is still critical to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan that will require hundreds of billions of dollars in new investments.

Overall expansion will likely accelerate as last year’s decision to curb oil production gradually ceases to weigh on GDP growth. On a quarterly basis, economic output was unchanged at 1.4% during the second quarter.

“We expect this to be the last quarter of deeply negative hydrocarbon sector growth” with base effects starting to dissipate, Carla Slim, an economist with Standard Chartered Plc, said before the data release.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been withholding supplies for almost two years in a bid to prop up prices. Still, Brent crude averaged around $83.5 a barrel so far this year — lower than the price Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget at $96 per barrel, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Bloomberg Economics estimates the break-even price at $109 per barrel, once domestic spending by the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund is taken into account.

“Despite their label, Saudi non-oil sectors depend on oil prices,” according to Ziad Daoud, chief emerging-markets economist at Bloomberg Economics. “With high oil prices, authorities hire more people, raising government services, a non-oil activity.”

The IMF cut its estimate for Saudi GDP growth this year to 1.7% from 2.6% in April.

Turkey keen to complete trade talks with Gulf council by end-2024, ministry says | Reuters

Turkey keen to complete trade talks with Gulf council by end-2024, ministry says | Reuters

Turkey wants to complete negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council by the end of the year, the Turkish trade ministry said on Wednesday, after Ankara hosted the first round of talks this week.

Ankara and the council agreed in March to hold the talks as Turkey bids to broaden economic ties with the region after diplomatic efforts in 2020 ended years of tensions with Gulf countries, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The ministry said the parties discussed goods trade, rules of origin, contracting, tourism and health, and that service trade and steps to facilitate investments were also evaluated.

"The sides have agreed to continue the talks through online meetings and to meet in Riyadh in the second half of the year for a second round of negotiations. The negotiations are aimed to be completed by the end of the year," it said in a statement.

Ankara already has a trade pact, dubbed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, with the UAE.

Since normalising ties with Gulf countries, Ankara has signed deals worth billions of dollars with regional powers, including Qatar, with which it enjoys strong ties.

Turkey's trade volume with the Gulf grouping stood at $31.5 billion in 2023, the ministry said, and the trade pact would help increase mutual investment and cooperation in various areas.

The Gulf council includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain.

Separately, the British Embassy in Ankara said on Tuesday that Britain wanted to resume trade talks with Turkey from later this year after negotiations were stalled due to the UK general election early in July.