As the debate over how bad things in China are rages on, growing Sino-sceptic Albert Edwards offers his two pennies on the country’s latest statistics.
Well, to be accurate, he laughs out loud at them:
That this outturn was bang in line with the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg makes it all the more unbelievable in my mind. All other economic data worldwide have been surprising massively on the downside and China should be no exception. A few hours earlier, for example, South Korea reported Q4 GDP had declined a hefty 5.6% QoQ, massively worse than a Reuter’s consensus which looked for a contraction of 2.7%! I naively thought that this QoQ decline was already annualized, but it was not. On a US style of reporting, the South Korean economy contracted at a 20% annualised rate in Q4. Asia is in depression. Whatever the heavily manipulated Chinese GDP is telling us, that economy must now be contracting. The Yuan needs to be devalued.
No comments:
Post a Comment