Two years ago disaster was on the horizon, now to move forward.

Joined twitter this past week, with my one man jury, still very undecided as to it's worth. Do any readers, if there are any, of this blog find twitter useful?

I am becoming increasingly confused as to whether any green shoots are appearing, globally. I recall on 1st April completing my posts and feeling very optimistic as most clippings were greenish of hue, with even the sceptic Peter Hellyer writing up, as opposed to talking up, Dubai .

Now such optimism has faded, as yet more poor economic news is released:

• Chrysler to Chapter 11;
• Swine Flu, is it over-hyped or, as one cynic suggested, the opportunity to boost the pharmaceutical sector;
• And ridiculous probability games are played by research organisations, when they suggested there was a 1:10 chance of The United Arab Emirates reverting to pre-Union state.

My answer is that yes the future does look better, but has to be put in context, or as Lucy Kellaway writes the "denial, rage, acceptance and a burst of cheer" has to occur first.

Here in UAE I sense we are at the acceptance stage, with Dr Omar Bin Sulaiman, DIFC and UAE Central Bank, leading the way:

I give a lot of credit to the Central Bank of the UAE. I'm one of the people who opposed the governor of the Central Bank [Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi]. Because all of us have been running very fast for a long time. And he's been walking. But during the crisis when a lot of us stopped, he continued walking. And that is a very credible thing to do and shows wisdom. The fact that the Central Bank was conservative – something we kept complaining about – actually saved a lot of the banking and financial systems in the UAE. Whether we like it or not, that's the truth today. We're fortunate that they've been conservative because it saved a lot of us.

as written in Business24/7 this past Saturday, with no repetition anywhere, I have checked.

Instead I believe journalists have latched on to these few lines, from the same article:

What was the biggest impact of the recent $10 billion bond issue?

Confidence. The bond issuance even though it is a liquidity solution that
will go into the economy, brought back confidence.

I'll share a personal example: We were constantly meeting with global bankers
and financial institutions for a few months to discuss each other's plans and
possibilities for growth. Global banks said they didn't know whether they'd
exist. But when the bond was announced, the first call I got was 20 minutes
after the news broke. It was from the chairman of one of the global banks that I
was with just a few days before. He called me and asked, 'How can we
participate in the second tranche?'. Now he is someone I know very
well. So I said, 'You were with me two days ago and you said you didn't have
money and were worried about your existence.' And he said, 'No, we can manage.'

It is nearly two years since Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Northern Rock hit the rocks, so with our acceptance of the true situation, our psychological green shoots of anticipation should lead to this becoming reality, throughout the economy, over the next few quarters.

Please do feel free to let me know your thoughts on the outlook, from your perspective.