IEA doubts Iraqi oil target

Baghdad’s plan to more than double Iraqi oil output in the next eight years may be too ambitious, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday on the eve of the country’s historic first post-war auction of oil contracts to foreign firms.

“Despite tremendous international interest for the country’s oil development projects, official plans to increase production by 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 6 million bpd by 2017 appear over-optimistic given the many political and security risks that continue to challenge the government and industry,” the energy adviser said.

Taking a “very conservative” view for its medium-term forecast period, ending in 2014, the IEA said Iraqi oil output could slip to 2.2 million bpd by 2011 from about 2.4 million bpd currently, due to an “unexpected accelerating decline” in production from the country’s big southern oilfields. With drilling programmes not expected to deliver results until later in the period, the agency projected capacity rising to 2.7 million bpd by 2014.