AZERBAIJAN: BAKU BECOMES A QUESTION MARK FOR NABUCCO PROJECT

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The Nabucco pipeline project took a major step forward when five transit countries recently signed an agreement after years of hesitation. But at least one wild card remains in the path of the project’s realization -- Azerbaijan. Although Baku has voiced strong support for Nabucco, experts caution that the country’s recent gas deal with Gazprom could complicate Baku’s ability to serve as a major supplier for the long-planned pipeline.

Within Azerbaijan, reactions to the Nabucco agreement, signed July 13, have been outwardly warm. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. President Ilham Aliyev expressed hope for a gas transit deal with Turkey "in the near future," the Turan news agency reported. On hand for the signing ceremony, Minister of Industry and Energy Natig Aliyev (no relation to President Aliyev) stressed that Baku remains interested in all profitable export routes, including Nabucco.

No one disputes the importance of Azerbaijan in making Nabucco a reality. With Iranian gas not an option, "if you [are] going to do anything about Nabucco and start the project you have to be able to rely on Azeri gas," Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel told Voice of America on July 13.