As Dubai crashes from wonder to blunder, who will go down with it?

Dubai's story of hotels and hubris in the desert sands is well rehearsed, but where will the narrative end? A relatively happy conclusion would be for the damage to be localised and containable, for Abu Dhabi or the International Monetary Fund to step in as backer, and for world markets to regain a measure of calm. An unhappy denouement hardly bears thinking about.

The only surprise about the downfall is that it came as a surprise. Neighbouring Gulf states could see it coming and have been keen for some time to differentiate themselves from their wayward brother emirate. On a recent visit to Qatar, everyone bent my ear about the huge contrast between them and Dubai. To be fair, if Dubai is the Middle East's answer to Las Vegas, Qatar is the equivalent of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

With little oil to its name, Dubai set about transforming itself from a small pearl-fishing port to the "eighth wonder of the world", with the seven-star Burj al-Arab hotel, the shopping malls, the expat villas and vaunting ambitions to become a world-class financial centre. But the improvident Gulf state traded oil-dependency for property-dependency – or, more accurately, debt-dependency.