Weekly GCC Trend Analysis (Week 38)

In a shortened three day trading week the DFM General Index still managed to rise an impressive +6%. This was enough to turn both the short-term and medium-term trends positive and for the overall outlook to turn from Very Bearish last week to Bullish this week.

The same trend changes occurred for the ADX Index but the outlook has only changed to Neutral from Very Bearish. No change in the outlook from last week for the other GCC indices: Saudi = Neutral, Kuwait = Very Bullish, Qatar = Very Bullish, Bahrain = Bullish, Oman = Neutral.

Enjoy.

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Notes:
1. In the "Current Trend Conditions" section the short-term, medium-term and long-term trend values are determined by dual moving averages. The trend value is "Up" when the the shorter length moving average is greater the longer length moving average. The trend value is "Down" when the the shorter length moving average is less then the longer length moving average. For more information on dual moving averages see previous post here.
2. Dual moving average parameters are specific to each index and time-frame (short, medium and long).

3. The "Outlook" value can be "Very Bullish," "Bullish," "Neutral," "Bearish" or "Very Bearish." The value is determined by the historical performance of the index when the same short, medium and long-term trend conditions were in evidence in the past.

4. The top chart shows a plot of the historical price performance of the index. Highlighted on the chart are the past periods when the current trend conditions were in evidence in the past

5. The bottom chart shows the non-compounded percentage returns of the index when the current trend condition were in evidence in the past.