For the global economy, Christmas parties came early this year: stimulus spending boosted growth to possibly unsustainable rates. Next year, a mild hangover is likely to kick in - with slower growth in much of the world, including China, India and Brazil.
Yet, for those in need of some more festive cheer, there are three regions that are forecast to see faster growth in 2011: the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Russia and central Asia. All three will average at least 4.6 per cent growth, according to the IMF, overtaking Latin America as the world’s most dynamic regions after Developing Asia. Why are they accelerating? The common thread is oil.
The greatest upturn in growth comes from the Middle East and North Africa, where the IMF predicts growth will rise from 4.1 per cent this year to 5.1 per cent in 2011, as oil prices remain high and stimulus spending continues in some less-indebted states, such as Saudi Arabia. “Oil-importing economies in the region also benefit [from the higher oil price] (roughly one-fourth of their exports go to oil exporters),” the IMF said in its latest Economic Outlook.
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