Oil's Top Forecasters See Third Year of Gains as China Leads 2011 Recovery - Bloomberg

Oil demand increasing at almost twice the pace of supply is spurring the most-accurate forecasters to predict the second-highest price on record in 2011.

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., whose estimate last January was within 1 percent of 2010’s mean price of $79.60 a barrel, says crude will average $90 this year. Natixis Bleichroeder Inc., which tied with Bernstein, sees $100 a barrel, 26 percent higher than in 2010. Global oil use will increase 1.7 percent to a record 87.8 million barrels a day this year, and output will rise 0.9 percent, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

While economic growth in China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, will slow to 9 percent this year from 10 percent, that would still be three times the rate in the U.S. and six times Europe’s, according to the median estimate in Bloomberg surveys of economists. As oil prices rise, spare production capacity may drop the most since 2003 as exporters including the 12 members of OPEC boost supply, according to Bernstein.