The forces of youth disaffection and technological openness are seeing protests against repressive authority spreading from Tunisia to Egypt to Bahrain and Libya. Iran, Yemen and Saudi Arabia may be next. But even if the regimes fall, these seemingly unstoppable forces will quickly run up against an immovable object that has long conferred power upon regional authoritarian regimes: economic rents. And unless this is addressed, the chances of a true democratic “Arab spring” are slim.
Most Middle Eastern countries are non-democratic, despite relatively high standards of living. Libya, Iran, and especially Saudi Arabia are fairly rich countries, although all come close to the bottom of the World Bank’s league table of democratic voice and accountability. Bahrain does little better. And this discrepancy between political and economic development is especially apparent in the Middle East because of the curse of rents.
Rents are easy money: unearned wealth that flows to governments with little effort. In the Middle East much of this is about oil. In Bahrain, Libya and Saudi Arabia, for example, oil revenues account for a large share of exports and state revenues. Egypt is not a large oil and gas exporter, but it produces reasonable quantities of both. This, in turn, provides the means to stifle dissent and perpetuate the regime.
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