Stock market traders in Saudi Arabia got a bit of a wake-up call yesterday. Their stock market evidently sees something it doesn't like. Why the market is all of a sudden more worried than it was previously about the challenge to the established political order in the Arab world is a bit of a mystery, but presumably traders have thus far deluded themselves into thinking that Saudi Arabia would be immune to unrest. Something has evidently changed their mind. It seems to us that this event deserves the moniker warning sign. The selling has been extremely heavy for three days now. Since this market is largely driven by local investors, we should probably attach some significance to this recent plunge. Someone has begun to sell three days ago and has spooked the herd. It's a good bet that the someone who started the selling is better informed than the rest of us.
Note in this context the following information about the current oil policy of Saudi Arabia from Marketwatch. While the article references anonymous sources, which stands in the way of fact-checking, there is one paragraph that caught our eye:
"The main threat is ... Saudi instability when the current king dies. We know he is very ill but obviously there is no indication of how critical that condition is. But it is acknowledged that the next transition will present a much bigger threat to internal stability ... Vested interest groups have been waiting for this transition to push their agenda. Saudi experienced considerable regional instability up to 10 years ago but bought it off with higher oil-based spending. Today the problem is as bad, if not worse. There have been only a few of the promised reforms ... Resentment towards the wealth gap with the royals is very high ... Even if/when the instability in other countries, such as Libya, settles, the Saudi succession threat is now firmly on the table. What happens in Bahrain could be very key. That alone will keep the oil market nervous for this year."
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