Oil prices in London would have to drop below $90 a barrel, adding to a roughly $20 drop from this year's highs, for oil-producing countries and major companies to begin feeling the pain.
The events of the Arab Spring have helped to drive up OPEC's budget-balancing needs to near $100 a barrel, compared with above $108 for Brent crude Friday.
At the same time, a rise in steel and other industrial metals has pushed up the marginal cost for extracting the most expensive crude -- a level often considered a gauge for the market's floor -- to roughly $90.
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