The Arab Uprisings and the International Oil Markets | Chatham House: Independent thinking on international affairs

• Although there have been no serious threats to global supplies since the Arab uprisings started, oil prices will remain volatile as political developments combine with global economic gloom, and surviving regimes spend to pacify populations.
• Physical oil markets managed the loss of Libyan crude exports well. However, in the paper markets, concerns over major Gulf Cooperation Council countries caused prices to strengthen.
• Under two long-term scenarios – 'Business as Usual' and 'Democracy Develops' – governments will seek higher production to provide more revenue. This could open the upstream to foreign investment, although democracy could create a nationalist backlash. There are also questions over whether democracies choose faster rates of depletion.

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