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The deal announced by presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Viktor Yanukovich of Ukraine on Tuesday could have unintended consequences elsewhere in the region. Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus, flew to the Winter Olympic resort of Sochi on Wednesday and will visit Moscow next week. He may want some of Russia’s largesse, too – or he may be more susceptible to rapprochement with the European Union.
The economy of Belarus is in a pitiful situation. A widening trade deficit has helped cause a current account gap expected to reach $6bn this year – $5bn more than a year ago. That deficit if half the size of Ukraine’s, a country five times more populous.
There is hug pressure on the currency. Foreign currency reserves have contracted by almost a fifth in the past six months and now cover less than two months of imports, a level considered dangerously unsustainable. Belarus, in sum, is in even worse trouble than Ukraine."
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