Opec paints a rosy picture, but challenges lie ahead - The National:
"Some energy trends are set by factors that grind forward as slowly, invisibly and inexorably as a drill-bit. Only a major global conflict, climate shift or technological or social upheaval looks capable of deflecting them. Last week’s World Oil Outlook from Opec, one of the industry’s most influential reports, offers reasonable optimism for the big oil producers in the coming years, but cannot dispel the long-term concerns. At the most basic level, global energy use continues to be dictated by a combination of geology, demographics, macroeconomics and logistics, all of which are immutable except on longer time-scales. Opec’s report noted that Asian markets will continue to grow in their energy use for the foreseeable future, with a growing proportion of oil produced being used for transport and petrochemicals. Fossil fuels' share of the overall energy mix will continue to be large, but will begin to shrink, with the Middle East’s dominant role in petroleum production being sustained. Within this context, it is possible to see a tolerable future for major oil exporters, in particular the Opec states. The future of Opec earnings is determined by three factors: the change in world oil demand, how much of this is supplied by the Opec states, and the price. Opec’s report a slow rise in all three."
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