From his third-floor office in eastern Baghdad, Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar can see the rowdy protesters below as they march toward Tahrir Square, the symbolic heart of Iraq’s latest uprising.
On Sunday, thousands of Iraqis again gathered with national flags at the square, across the Tigris river from the heavily-fortified Green Zone, where the U.S. has its embassy. Their list of grievances was long: corrupt politicians, daily power cuts, dilapidated hospitals, crumbling roads and a lack of jobs. “We want our country back!” they chanted.
Iraq may be the world’s third-biggest oil exporter, but its economy is cratering after the coronavirus pandemic sapped global demand for energy and caused prices to collapse. The state’s finances are so dire it can’t pay teachers and civil servants on time, threatening a repeat of the upheaval that last year brought down the government and saw hundreds of protesters killed.
That’s created a dilemma for 46-year-old Abdul Jabbar, a chemical engineer and career oil man who’s now caught between the demands of an angry population and the pledges made to allies in OPEC. The cartel of oil producers is trying to bolster a fragile market by reining in supply and it needs major producers like Iraq to toe the line. For Iraq, restraining supply carries a massive economic -- and political -- cost. But breaking ranks is risky too: it could mean lower prices for everyone.
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