After the neighbors’ very public spat over future OPEC+ oil output, that’s now looking hopelessly old-fashioned and the consequences are rippling out from the Persian Gulf.
Most obviously, the tussle has left a question mark over crude supply as major nations emerge from Covid lockdowns. OPEC+ abandoned its meeting on Monday without a deal, sending oil past $77.
But it also underlined a growing economic rivalry that’s been sharpened by the pandemic and has implications for global companies, as well as a political divergence with repercussions across the Middle East from Yemen to Israel, Iran to Qatar.
While no one’s saying ties are set to break down, the ground rules have shifted.
“More than 80% of the time, these two capitals are on the same page,” said UAE political science professor Abdulkhaleq Abdullah. “However, there is growing economic competition, it is growing deeper by the day, and we are still in the early stages of it.”
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